🧠 Cognitive Decline Risk Assessment Tool

Based on 10-year follow-up data (2011-2020) from the CHARLS cohort
Utilizing Multinomial Logistic Regression for individualized risk prediction

👤 Sociodemographic Characteristics
💡 Higher education is a strong protective factor (OR=0.115)
🏥 Health and Functional Status
💡 Treated as ordinal variable (0, 1, 2+) in the model
📌 Encoding: Total number of difficulties (0-5) as a continuous IADL variable
⚠️ IADL difficulties are the strongest risk factor (OR=5.523)
⚖️ Body Mass Index (BMI)
Please enter your height in centimeters.
Please enter your weight in kilograms.

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Automatically calculated based on your height and weight.
📌 Encoding: Not calculated (Normal weight is reference; Underweight corresponds to `bmi.0`, Obese to `bmi.2`)
⚠️ Both underweight and obesity increase the risk of rapid decline
🏃 Physical Activity & Exercise Intensity
📌 Corresponds to `PhysicalActivity` variable in the model
✓ Any participation is a protective factor (OR=0.391)
📌 Encoding: Moderate exercise is reference; No exercise corresponds to `physical.0`, Excessive exercise to `physical.2`
⚠️ Both no exercise and excessive exercise increase risk
🍽️ Other Lifestyle Factors
✓ Internet use is one of the strongest protective factors (OR=0.355)
✓ Reflects executive function and self-management ability (OR=0.598)
🧩 Social and Cognitive Activities
✓ Brain activities are a protective factor (OR=0.405)
✓ Social activities are a protective factor (OR=0.457)
😴 Sleep and Psychological State
⚠️ Less than 7 hours increases rapid decline risk (OR=1.484)
📌 Encoding: ≤60 minutes is reference group, >60 minutes is 1
✓ Nap duration >60 minutes is a protective factor
⚠️ Depression is a risk factor (OR=1.419)
⚠️ Disclaimer: This tool is for educational and reference purposes only, based on statistical models from CHARLS cohort data, and cannot substitute professional medical diagnosis. If you have any concerns about cognitive health, please consult a medical professional.
📈 Assessment Results

Stable Trajectory — Cognitive function remains largely stable

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Slow Decline Trajectory — Cognitive function gradually declines

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Rapid Decline Trajectory — Cognitive function rapidly deteriorates

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💡 Personalized Recommendations

📋 Model Information: This assessment is based on a multinomial logistic regression model, including 3097 participants aged 60 and above with Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD), followed for 10 years (2011-2020). Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) identified three cognitive trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression analyzed risk factor associations for these three trajectory groups. The model showed good fit (AIC=6324.6).