Supplementary Materials

##Study 1 regression logistic tables

Table S1. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 1, Climate Arguments,
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.039	0.091	0.657
Logical Quality	1.490	0.226	0.008
Prior Beliefs	1.230	0.069	<0.001
Partisan Identity	1.197	0.099	0.030
Argument Direction	1.052	0.159	0.740
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.346	0.092	<0.001
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.934	0.070	0.362
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.779	0.073	0.008
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	1.013	0.307	0.967
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	16.085	1.142	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	2.251	0.174	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.331	0.148	0.010
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	2.163	0.296	<0.001
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.990	0.149	0.949
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.608	0.071	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.912	0.426	0.004
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.46
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.24
N _rid	1193
N _{unique_id}	46
Observations	26415
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.197 / 0.470

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S2. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 1, Climate Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	0.964	0.084	0.672
Logical Quality	1.572	0.233	0.002
Prior Beliefs	1.254	0.105	0.007
Partisan Identity	1.112	0.101	0.246
Argument Direction	1.607	0.261	0.003
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.290	0.184	0.075
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.950	0.092	0.600
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.803	0.078	0.025
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	0.920	0.268	0.775
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	9.951	1.605	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	3.730	0.545	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.231	0.155	0.098
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.848	0.515	0.028
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.914	0.158	0.603
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.470	0.081	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.949	0.450	0.004
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.70
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.22
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.42
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	3.27
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.16
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.02
ρ₀₁	-0.58
	-0.29
	0.39
	0.46
N _rid	1193
N _{unique_id}	46
Observations	26415
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.162 / 0.562

Note. Model includes random intercepts and slopes for Logical Quality and Argument Direction by participants, and random intercepts and slopes for Prior Beliefs and Partisan Identity by arguments.

Table S3. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 1, Climate Arguments,
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.186	0.087	0.020
Logical Quality	2.446	0.314	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	1.014	0.055	0.798
Partisan Identity	1.263	0.090	0.001
Argument Direction	1.610	0.207	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.024	0.073	0.736
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.162	0.077	0.024
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.825	0.074	0.033
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.191	0.563	0.002
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	4.395	0.314	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.767	0.051	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.942	0.112	0.615
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.236	0.175	0.134
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.115	0.148	0.411
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.220	0.146	0.097
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.820	0.195	0.403
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.17
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.15
N _rid	1189
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	24052
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.119 / 0.371

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S4. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 1, Neutral Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.174	0.092	0.041
Logical Quality	2.607	0.363	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	0.949	0.083	0.553
Partisan Identity	1.313	0.105	0.001
Argument Direction	1.659	0.239	<0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.148	0.179	0.375
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.132	0.102	0.169
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.797	0.078	0.021
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.122	0.577	0.006
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	5.487	0.896	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.691	0.077	0.001
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.982	0.143	0.899
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.093	0.327	0.765
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.227	0.182	0.168
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.445	0.241	0.027
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.758	0.193	0.276
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.44
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.17
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.70
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	1.83
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.17
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.01
ρ₀₁	-0.39
	-0.36
	-0.02
	0.35
N _rid	1189
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	24052
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.120 / 0.472

Note. Model includes random intercepts and slopes for Logical Quality and Argument Direction by participants, and random intercepts and slopes for Prior Beliefs and Partisan Identity by arguments.

Study 2 (identity-threat context) logistic regression tables

Table S5. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 2, Climate Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.221	0.129	0.059
Logical Quality	1.354	0.234	0.079
Prior Beliefs	1.013	0.090	0.885
Partisan Identity	1.278	0.156	0.044
Argument Direction	0.821	0.142	0.255
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.761	0.078	0.008
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.555	0.186	<0.001
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.716	0.095	0.011
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.742	0.110	0.044
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	1.435	0.495	0.295
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	17.260	2.111	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	2.280	0.307	<0.001
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.028	0.116	0.807
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	1.014	0.125	0.913
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.925	0.158	0.648
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.176	0.134	0.155
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.594	0.310	0.016
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	0.901	0.216	0.663
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.125	0.297	0.656
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.644	0.129	0.028
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.826	0.133	0.237
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.492	0.268	0.026
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.058	0.221	0.788
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.881	0.199	0.574
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.378	0.062	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.143	0.208	0.463
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.790	0.307	0.545
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.719	0.191	0.215
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.357	0.438	0.345
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.269	0.456	0.507
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.623	0.441	0.075
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.681	0.895	0.330
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	0.95
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.27
N _rid	920
N _{unique_id}	47
Observations	21190
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.164 / 0.390

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S6. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 2, Climate Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.223	0.143	0.084
Logical Quality	1.421	0.273	0.068
Prior Beliefs	0.996	0.106	0.970
Partisan Identity	1.258	0.173	0.095
Argument Direction	1.258	0.290	0.318
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.737	0.085	0.008
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.596	0.260	0.004
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.718	0.114	0.036
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.750	0.121	0.073
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	1.489	0.560	0.290
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	12.665	2.679	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	3.848	1.027	<0.001
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.061	0.146	0.664
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	1.005	0.135	0.972
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.938	0.179	0.736
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.067	0.239	0.773
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.508	0.325	0.057
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	0.716	0.224	0.285
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.207	0.352	0.519
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.474	0.150	0.018
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.833	0.156	0.328
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.547	0.323	0.036
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.977	0.223	0.919
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.825	0.208	0.447
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.390	0.104	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.149	0.423	0.706
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.624	0.251	0.242
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.740	0.226	0.323
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.774	0.619	0.100
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.208	0.459	0.620
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.098	0.943	0.099
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.202	1.251	0.165
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.23
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.32
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.27
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	4.41
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.09
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.03
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.02
ρ₀₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	-0.37
ρ₀₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	-0.18
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.72
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.30
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	-0.94
N _rid	920
N _{unique_id}	47
Observations	21190
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.145 / 0.540

Note. Model includes random intercepts and slopes for Logical Quality and Argument Direction by participants, and random intercepts and slopes for Prior Beliefs, Partisan Identity and Treatment by arguments.

Table S7. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 2, Neutral Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.101	0.099	0.282
Logical Quality	2.395	0.354	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	1.211	0.130	0.074
Partisan Identity	1.196	0.146	0.143
Argument Direction	1.326	0.196	0.057
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.887	0.082	0.195
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.204	0.193	0.246
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.059	0.169	0.720
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.929	0.188	0.715
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.604	0.771	0.001
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	6.075	0.984	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.644	0.102	0.006
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.261	0.153	0.056
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.962	0.143	0.795
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.967	0.164	0.843
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.038	0.126	0.757
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.828	0.251	0.534
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.300	0.417	0.413
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.816	0.259	0.523
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.980	0.297	0.946
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.583	0.132	0.017
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.216	0.269	0.377
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.963	0.265	0.892
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.505	0.122	0.005
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.587	0.133	0.019
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.179	0.261	0.455
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.499	0.301	0.250
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.853	0.359	0.706
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.715	0.774	0.232
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.032	0.455	0.943
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.695	0.293	0.388
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	3.055	2.561	0.183
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	0.83
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.15
N _rid	919
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	9459
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.128 / 0.328

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S8. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 2, Neutral Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.108	0.102	0.264
Logical Quality	2.542	0.378	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	1.181	0.158	0.213
Partisan Identity	1.235	0.167	0.119
Argument Direction	1.357	0.221	0.061
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.876	0.087	0.185
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.298	0.287	0.238
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.030	0.191	0.874
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.907	0.197	0.652
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.621	0.765	0.001
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	7.448	1.817	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.611	0.136	0.027
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.321	0.177	0.038
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.962	0.153	0.807
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.947	0.174	0.767
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.081	0.176	0.632
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.802	0.264	0.503
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.180	0.511	0.702
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.817	0.291	0.571
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.985	0.375	0.969
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.552	0.136	0.016
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.293	0.316	0.293
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.953	0.281	0.871
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.451	0.115	0.002
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.527	0.149	0.023
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.225	0.364	0.495
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.404	0.258	0.155
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.859	0.393	0.739
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.062	0.984	0.130
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.981	0.458	0.968
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.677	0.355	0.457
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	4.554	4.049	0.088
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.00
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.13
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.24
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	1.61
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.18
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.04
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.00
ρ₀₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	-0.30
ρ₀₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	-0.27
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.21
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.50
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.75
N _rid	919
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	9459
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.131 / 0.419

Study 3 (logical warnings) logistic regression tables

Table S9. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 9, Climate Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.221	0.129	0.059
Logical Quality	1.354	0.234	0.079
Prior Beliefs	1.013	0.090	0.885
Partisan Identity	1.278	0.156	0.044
Argument Direction	0.821	0.142	0.255
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.761	0.078	0.008
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.555	0.186	<0.001
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.716	0.095	0.011
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.742	0.110	0.044
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	1.435	0.495	0.295
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	17.260	2.111	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	2.280	0.307	<0.001
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.028	0.116	0.807
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	1.014	0.125	0.913
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.925	0.158	0.648
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.176	0.134	0.155
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.594	0.310	0.016
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	0.901	0.216	0.663
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.125	0.297	0.656
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.644	0.129	0.028
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.826	0.133	0.237
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.492	0.268	0.026
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.058	0.221	0.788
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.881	0.199	0.574
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.378	0.062	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.143	0.208	0.463
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.790	0.307	0.545
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.719	0.191	0.215
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.357	0.438	0.345
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.269	0.456	0.507
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.623	0.441	0.075
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.681	0.895	0.330
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	0.95
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.27
N _rid	920
N _{unique_id}	47
Observations	21190
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.164 / 0.390

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S10. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 9, Climate Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.223	0.143	0.084
Logical Quality	1.421	0.273	0.068
Prior Beliefs	0.996	0.106	0.970
Partisan Identity	1.258	0.173	0.095
Argument Direction	1.258	0.290	0.318
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.737	0.085	0.008
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.596	0.260	0.004
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	0.718	0.114	0.036
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.750	0.121	0.073
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	1.489	0.560	0.290
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	12.665	2.679	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	3.848	1.027	<0.001
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.061	0.146	0.664
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	1.005	0.135	0.972
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.938	0.179	0.736
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.067	0.239	0.773
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	1.508	0.325	0.057
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	0.716	0.224	0.285
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	1.207	0.352	0.519
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.474	0.150	0.018
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.833	0.156	0.328
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.547	0.323	0.036
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.977	0.223	0.919
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.825	0.208	0.447
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.390	0.104	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.149	0.423	0.706
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.624	0.251	0.242
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.740	0.226	0.323
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.774	0.619	0.100
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.208	0.459	0.620
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.098	0.943	0.099
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.202	1.251	0.165
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.23
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.32
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.27
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	4.41
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.09
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.03
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.02
ρ₀₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	-0.37
ρ₀₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	-0.18
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.72
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.30
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	-0.94
N _rid	920
N _{unique_id}	47
Observations	21190
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.145 / 0.540

Table S11. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Results for Study 3, Neutral Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.101	0.099	0.282
Logical Quality	2.395	0.354	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	1.211	0.130	0.074
Partisan Identity	1.196	0.146	0.143
Argument Direction	1.326	0.196	0.057
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.887	0.082	0.195
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.204	0.193	0.246
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.059	0.169	0.720
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.929	0.188	0.715
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.604	0.771	0.001
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	6.075	0.984	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.644	0.102	0.006
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.261	0.153	0.056
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.962	0.143	0.795
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.967	0.164	0.843
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.038	0.126	0.757
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.828	0.251	0.534
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.300	0.417	0.413
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.816	0.259	0.523
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.980	0.297	0.946
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.583	0.132	0.017
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.216	0.269	0.377
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.963	0.265	0.892
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.505	0.122	0.005
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.587	0.133	0.019
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.179	0.261	0.455
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.499	0.301	0.250
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.853	0.359	0.706
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.715	0.774	0.232
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.032	0.455	0.943
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.695	0.293	0.388
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	3.055	2.561	0.183
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	0.83
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.15
N _rid	919
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	9459
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.128 / 0.328

Note. Model includes random intercepts for participants and arguments.

Table S12. Mixed Effects Logistic Regression with Maximal Random Effects for Study 3, Neutral Arguments
	Argument Strength Judgment
Predictors	Odds Ratios	std. Error	p
Intercept	1.108	0.102	0.264
Logical Quality	2.542	0.378	<0.001
Prior Beliefs	1.181	0.158	0.213
Partisan Identity	1.235	0.167	0.119
Argument Direction	1.357	0.221	0.061
Treatment (vs. Control)	0.876	0.087	0.185
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs	1.298	0.287	0.238
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity	1.030	0.191	0.874
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.907	0.197	0.652
Logical Quality × Argument Direction	2.621	0.765	0.001
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	7.448	1.817	<0.001
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.611	0.136	0.027
Logical Quality × Treatment	1.321	0.177	0.038
Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.962	0.153	0.807
Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.947	0.174	0.767
Argument Direction × Treatment	1.081	0.176	0.632
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity	0.802	0.264	0.503
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction	1.180	0.511	0.702
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.817	0.291	0.571
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.985	0.375	0.969
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Treatment	0.552	0.136	0.016
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Treatment	1.293	0.316	0.293
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.953	0.281	0.871
Logical Quality × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.451	0.115	0.002
Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.527	0.149	0.023
Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	1.225	0.364	0.495
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction	0.404	0.258	0.155
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Treatment	0.859	0.393	0.739
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Argument Direction × Treatment	2.062	0.984	0.130
Logical Quality × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.981	0.458	0.968
Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	0.677	0.355	0.457
Logical Quality × Prior Beliefs × Partisan Identity × Argument Direction × Treatment	4.554	4.049	0.088
Random Effects
σ²	3.29
τ₀₀ _rid	1.00
τ₀₀ _{unique_id}	0.13
τ₁₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	0.24
τ₁₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	1.61
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.18
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.04
τ₁₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.00
ρ₀₁ _{rid.StrengthRecoded}	-0.30
ρ₀₁ _{rid.DirectionRecoded}	-0.27
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.prior}	0.21
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.partisanship_stat}	0.50
ρ₀₁ _{unique_id.conditiontreatment}	0.75
N _rid	919
N _{unique_id}	42
Observations	9459
Marginal R² / Conditional R²	0.131 / 0.419

Study 2 effect heterogeneity over partisanship and prior beliefs

We find little heterogeneity on the key results on Study 2. That is, political identity threats decrease perceived strength of prior inconsistent arguments. We observe significant argument directionality and treatment interaction for climate skeptics, \(b = -0.35, p < .001\), as well as climate believers, \(b = -0.42, p < .001\), suggesting that political identity threats decrease strength perception of prior-consistent arguments. We found similar effects for Republicans, \(b = -0.35, p < .001\), and Democrats, \(b = -0.21, p = 0.06\), though the observed effect on Democrats were smaller.

Study 3 effect heterogeneity over partisanship and prior beliefs

We find little heterogeneity on the key results on Study 3. That is, logical warnings decrease perceived strength of weak, but not strong arguments. We observe significant logical quality and treatment interaction for climate skeptics, \(b = 0.23, p = .05\), as well as climate believers, \(b = 0.30, p < .001\). We found similar effects for Republicans, \(b = 0.32, p < .001\), and Democrats, \(b = 0.35, p < .001\).