Urban Expansion and Environmental Change: Impacts on Peri-Urban Farming Communities in Burayu, Shaggar City, Oromia
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DeressaChimdessa1✉HabtamuTolera1Emailhabtol@yahoo.com
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Department of Geography, Abyssinia High SchoolAddis Ababa, Addis Katama City Administration, Addis AbabaEthiopia2Department of Geography and Environmental StudiesWollega UniversityP.O. Box. 395NekemteEthiopia
1Deressa Chimdessa *2Habtamu Tolera
1Department of Geography, Abyssinia High School, Addis Ababa, Addis Katama City Administration, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
*2Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wollega University, P.O. Box. 395, Nekemte, Ethiopia. (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5967-1237)
*2Corresponding author: habtol@yahoo.com.
Abstract
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As Shaggar City of Ethiopia’s Oromia Region expands outward, farmland around Burayu sub-City is shrinking and the environment is changing. This study looks at how farming families are coping with these pressures, using maps and local voices to understand both the drivers, magnitude and patterns of conversion, challenges and the strategies they use to adapt. By doing so, the research intends to generate insights that can inform more inclusive, sustainable urban planning and policy responses in Ethiopia’s rapidly changing urban fringe. A mixed-method approach was employed using survey and satellite image, FGDs and KIIs. Primary data were collected through household survey questionnaires (n = 145), focus group conversations with residents (six FGDs), key informant interviews (n = 12) with experts in the area, on-site observations incorporating GIS-based assessment of land use dynamics and environmental changes using satellite images analyses for a span of 23 years (2000–2023). Analysis was performed utilizing tools such as SPSS, Arc GIS, ERDAS, descriptive and thematic analyses. Findings indicate that developed areas increased from 42.4% (3682 ha) to 55.9% (4855 ha), while agricultural land shrank from 40.1% (3485 ha) to 24.4% (2120.8 ha). The land use and land cover data for 2023 reveals a significant shift towards urbanization, with built-up areas now comprising the largest portion of land use at 55.9%, an increase from 42. 4% in 2000. This trend suggests continued urban expansion, which may lead to the reduction of other land types. Majority of respondents (67.6%) reported the conversion of farmland to other uses, resulting in smaller plots and forcing people to relocate. Major factors contributing to this growth include insecure land ownership (26.2%), Policy and institutional gaps (23.45%), Market or economic pressure (20.69%) prompting many farmers to sell or rent their land. Consequently, communities are experiencing displacement, reduced farm sizes, lower food output, and heightened social stratifications. Women are particularly vulnerable; with 42.1% stating they were left out of land-related decisions. The findings show that while urban growth disrupts land, water, and community systems, farmers are finding ways to stay resilient. By sharing their experiences, the study connects local realities in Oromia to wider conversations about sustainable cities and climate-smart development. To adapt, individuals are seeking alternative income sources (70.3%) and negotiating for better agreements with others (46.2%). The research highlights that unchecked urban growth is causing serious problems for farmland near cities. It stresses the need for better planning of cities to protect farmland, ensure food security, and support the rights and resilience of affected farming communities in study setting.Keywords:
Urban expansion
Peri-urban agriculture
Environmental change
Land use dynamics
Resilience pathways
Livelihood adaptation
Ethiopia
Burayu
Shaggar City
Background to the studyUrbanization is reshaping the face of low-and middle-income countries at a magnificent pace(Güneralp, et al., 2017; Tacoli, 2020). From 2020 to 2025, nations like Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, and Ethiopia have witnessed some of the fastest urban growth rates in the world, ranging from 3.5% to over 4.3% annually(WORLDOSTATS, 2025). This is not just a statistic; it is a reflection of millions of lives in motion, driven by population pressures, rural migration, and the rapid expansion of informal settlements(Kebede et al., 2021; López-ballesteros et al., 2017). Ethiopia alone is seeing its urban population swell by around 4.1% each year(The World Bank., 2025). As of 2025, over 56% of the global population now lives in urban areas, and by 2050, nearly 70% will call cities home(The UN-Habitat, 2025). Much of this shift is unfolding in Africa and South Asia, presenting both a challenge and an opportunity: to rethink how we build, govern, and sustain urban life in ways that are inclusive, resilient, and environmentally sound(Bocquier & Louvain, 2010; Kamana et al., 2024). The case of the former urbanization is rising rapidly, transforming environments, ecosystems, and people’s lives(African Development Bank Group, 2023; Kamana et al., 2024). In the last twenty years, urban regions have grown at an average annual rate of 3.5%, surpassing other developing areas worldwide(Cherotich et al., 2024; Kamana et al., 2024). By the year 2050, it is anticipated that over half of Africa’s population will live in cities, a significant increase from just 14.5% in 1950 (Cobbinah, 2024; Fadda, 2024; Njoh, 2003).This change is fueled by people moving from rural areas to cities, increasing populations, changes in the economy, and advancements in technology(Tacoli, 2020; United Nations Development Program, 2018; Ying, 2025). Nonetheless, the rapidity and scale of this growth have exceeded the ability of many cities to manage it effectively(Tekalign, 2023). Many urban planning systems throughout Africa are inadequately equipped, facing challenges related to infrastructure and weak enforcement of development guidelines(Shao, et al., 2020). While sustainability has emerged as a key focus in urban discussions, effectively applying general principles to local strategies remains a struggle(African Development Bank Group, 2023). Urban planners often have varying perspectives on sustainability, influenced by their backgrounds and organizational goals, which can obstruct collaboration among different stakeholders and government bodies(Attipo et al., 2023). Consequently, urban growth tends to occur in disjointed and uncoordinated manners, leading to increased carbon emissions and the emergence of environmentally risky areas(Attipo et al., 2023; Güneralp et al., 2017). A notable and concerning result of uncontrolled urban development is urban sprawl(Hirpa et al., 2023; Jooste et al., 2019). This phenomenon, characterized by low-density and spread-out building, often lacks reliable public transportation systems, compelling residents to depend on personal vehicles(Aboda et al., 2019; Jooste et al., 2019). In such environments, commuting costs can exhaust up to 40% of a household's income(Aboda et al., 2019), especially for low-income individuals traveling long distances to access city centers. This reliance on automobiles not only worsens environmental degradation and economic difficulties but also heightens carbon emissions and speeds up climate change(Cobbinah, 2024; Njoh, 2003; Patouki et al., 2025). Peri-urban regions, the spaces bridging rural and urban lands, are facing significant challenges due to this transformation(United Nations Development Program, 2018; Walo, 2016; Wolamo et al., 2024; Woldesemayat and Genovese, 2021). These areas are being increasingly shifted for land development, resulting in environmental damage, insecurity in land tenure, and displacement of communities(The World Bank Group, 2021). Addressing these issues necessitates a more cohesive and context-aware method to urban planning, one that harmonizes growth with fairness, environmental responsibility, and long-term sustainability(The UN-Habitat, 2016; Wu et al., 2025). This study investigates these dynamics in Burayu Town, a rapidly expanding peri-urban settlement on the edge of Shaggar city in Oromia Region, circling Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia(The UN-Habitat, 2016; United Nations Development Program, 2018), where horizontal urban sprawl is reshaping land use, livelihoods, and environmental conditions(Tame et al., 2025; United Nations Development Program, 2018). In Ethiopia, the urban shift is among the fastest in Africa(Njoh, 2003). In 2008, only 16% of the population resided in cities, but from 2007 to 2019, the urban population increased at an average annual rate of 4.7%(The World Bank., 2025). Forecasts indicate that by 2050, over 42%(CSA, 2019; The World Bank., 2025) (Central Statistical Agency [CSA] of Ethiopia., 2024)of Ethiopians will live in urban areas. Addis Ababa represents almost a quarter of the national urban demographic, highlighting the concentration of growth in certain urban centers(Bocquier & Louvain, 2010). This expansion is attributed to rural migration, natural demographic increase, and government initiatives promoting urbanization as a strategy for economic progress(Alemu et al., 2025; Argaie et al., 2022; Ayele & Tarekegn, 2020). However, both regulated and unregulated growth is visible, with horizontal sprawl becoming a prominent trend, particularly within peri-urban regions(Güneralp et al., 2017; Degu, 2014). When properly managed, urban growth can enhance rural economies by boosting the demand for farm products, enhancing service access, and generating non-farming jobs(Jooste et al., 2019; Kamana et al., 2024). However, in numerous peri-urban regions of Ethiopia, unchecked growth has resulted in land use disputes, environmental harm, and increased vulnerability for farming communities(Kebede, 2020; Keno et al., 2019; Lemma et al, 2024). The struggle between agricultural land and residential developments, coupled with inadequate waste management and the strain on water supplies, has worsened poverty and environmental pressures. Nevertheless, agriculture continues to serve as the foundation of Ethiopia’s economy, employing the majority of its workforce and making significant contributions to the nation's GDP and exports. As urban areas expand into rich farmland, the conflict between urban development and food security is becoming more evident(Mefekir, 2023; Temesgen, 2019; Merkebu, 2010).
Burayu Town, situated at the northwestern fringe of Addis Ababa in the Oromia region, illustrates these interactions. Its swift outward growth, prompted by population pressures and aided by flat land, has led to a widespread transformation of agricultural and grazing lands into residential and commercial spaces. This change has displaced many farming families, disrupted conventional ways of living, and limited access to shared resources. Previous research has highlighted the effects of this growth, including loss of forests, soil degradation, water pollution, and community displacement. However, most of these evaluations are qualitative and do not incorporate detailed spatial, quantitative analysis using methods like GIS and remote sensing. Although some foundational studies exist, they are either outdated or limited in geographical scope.
As urbanization continues to transform peri-urban areas, smallholder farmers are increasingly at risk. Their land, essential for their economic and cultural well-being, is often the first target for development projects. The demographic and spatial changes linked to urban growth are undermining traditional land ownership systems, fostering uncertainty and insecurity. Even with the rise of new developments in peri-urban areas, research on how outward expansion is impacting both the environment and the livelihoods of farming communities, particularly in places like Burayu Town, within the northwestern suburban corridor of Shaggar City, is still scarce.
Furthermore, the socio-economic effects of urbanization on peri-urban populations have not been thoroughly investigated in Ethiopia. Although quasi-experimental techniques like propensity score matching have been utilized in various developmental contexts, their use to analyze the effects of urbanization-induced displacement and shifts in livelihoods is still uncommon. This oversight reveals a critical need for interdisciplinary methods that combine spatial analysis with environmental and socio-economic factors. Such an approach is consistent with Ethiopia’s larger developmental objectives, which include systems thinking, climate-resilient livelihoods, and the Green Legacy initiative.
This research aims to fill these gaps by exploring the spatial and environmental aspects of horizontal urban growth in Burayu Town. Specifically, it aims to: (1) quantify Burayu's growth between 2000 and 2023; (2) identify the main drivers of this expansion and evaluate the prevailing changes in land use and land cover; and (3) analyze the environmental impacts of this growth and how it has affected the livelihoods of displaced farming families, including the strategies they have adopted to cope. The results will provide data-driven insights for urban planners, policymakers, and development professionals, supporting the creation of more inclusive and sustainable urban and peri-urban development strategies in Ethiopia.
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Methods and Materials
Peri-urban landscape dynamics and climatic overview of Burayu
This study was conducted in the peri-urban fringes of Burayu Town, situated in the northwestern suburban belt of Shaggar City, within Ethiopia’s Oromia Regional State. Established in 2022, Shaggar City serves as a strategic urban development model encircling Addis Ababa (Finfinnee) to promote equitable growth and economic integration across its satellite towns. Administratively, Shaggar comprises 12 sub-cities, with Burayu being one of them.
Astronomically, Burayu lies between 9°02′ and 9°02′30″ N latitude, and 38°03′30″ to 38°41′30″ E longitude(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025). It shares borders with Sabata to the south, Walamara District to the west, Addis Ababa to the east, and Sululta to the north. Covering approximately 66.5 square kilometers, the town is organized into six kebeles: Gafarsa Burayu, Burayu Kata, Laku Kata, Gafarsa Guje, Gafarsa Nono, and Malka Gafarsa.
Over the past four decades, Burayu has experienced rapid demographic growth from just over 4,000 residents in 1984 to more than 133,000 by 2024, including 65,191 males and 68,438 females (FDRE, 2024)(Central Statistical Agency (CSA) [Ethiopia], 2015; Central Statistical Agency [CSA] of Ethiopia., 2024; CSA, 2019). This expansion mirrors national trends in rural-to-urban migration, driven by infrastructure development, shifting livelihoods, and emerging economic opportunities(Feyera, 2005; Gnamura et al., 2024; Hambe et al., 2023).
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Fig. 1
Location map of the study town
In its peri-urban zones, residents practice mixed agriculture, combining crop cultivation with livestock rearing (Bayuma and Abebe, 2024). Burayu, a rapidly urbanizing peri-urban center in Ethiopia, offers a relatively temperate climate that enhances its livability(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025), especially in the context of escalating global climate variability(Degu, 2014). The town predominantly falls within the Weyina Dega agroclimatic zone, characterized by sub-humid midland conditions. Burayu’s elevation ranges from approximately 2,000 to 2,300 meters (Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025), situating it near the upper threshold of Weyina Dega(Bayuma & Abebe, 2024; Degu, 2014). In its higher-altitude pockets, particularly in hilly terrain, the town exhibits microclimatic traits akin to the Dega zone, known for cooler temperatures and increased humidity above 2,300 meters(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025). These transitional zones contribute to Burayu’s climatic diversity and agricultural adaptability(Hambe et al., 2023; Talema & Nigusie, 2024; Talema & Nigusie, 2023; Yared, 2018). Topographically, Burayu is defined by a plateau-like landscape and receives an average annual rainfall of around 1,188mm (Fig. 2). Longitudinal precipitation data from 2010 to 2023 reveal a generally stable rainfall regime, though interannual variability is evident. The year 2018 marked the peak with rainfall surpassing 2,500 mm, while 2016 recorded the lowest at just above 1,700 mm(Bayuma & Abebe, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025). These fluctuations underscore the need for adaptive planning, even within seemingly stable climatic zones(Talema & Nigusie, 2024).
Fig. 2
Annual rainfall pattern of peri-urban Burayu Town from 2010 to 2023(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024).
Temperatures typically range between 15°C and 20°C(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024; Meteoblue., 2025), creating favorable conditions for cultivating teff, maize, barley, wheat, and enset(Achamyeleh, 2017; Tadesse & Baye, 2024; Talema & Nigusie, 2023) (see Fig. 3).
Fig. 3
Mean annual distribution of Temperature in Burayu from 2010 to 2023(Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, 2024)
Research design
This study employed a mixed-methods approaches(Berg, 2009; Creswell, 2014), combining quantitative geospatial analysis and household surveys with qualitative insights from key informant interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). It also used field observations to better understand the context of the study settings(Creswell, 2014)
Data collection approach and field engagement
To build a grounded understanding across multiple levels, the study combined diverse methods: structured surveys, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), ground control points (GCPs), satellite imagery, and direct field observations(Creswell, 2014). These were further enriched by secondary sources to ensure a comprehensive analysis(Mamuye & Ebabu, 2021; Markos, 2023).
The fieldwork engaged 145 households, 12 key informants, and 6 FGDs drawn from communities experiencing urban expansion and land use change(Tong et al., 2018). A structured questionnaire, originally drafted in English and carefully translated into Afan Oromo, captured quantitative data on socio-economic conditions, land use changes and drivers, livelihood shifts, and local adaptation strategies and perceptions of urban expansion impacts among affected residents.
A dedicated team of 12 trained geographers, supported by three municipal supervisors, the lead researcher and the corresponding author, carried out the data collection. Equipped with GPS devices for ground verification and cameras to document spatial transformations, the team ensured both technical precision and contextual sensitivity(Getu & Bhat, 2024).
A visual framework (Fig. 4) was designed specifically for Burayu Town to identify the cause-effect relationships between urban expansion and agricultural land transformation, and their impact on livelihoods(Kebede, 2020; Shmelev, 2003; Talema & Nigusie, 2023). This framework was created based on a review of relevant literature(Argaie et al., 2022; Bekele et al., 2025; Tessema et al., 2024).
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Figure 4 Conceptual framework of the study, Own construct from literature(Shmelev, 2003)Quality control measures included pre-testing instruments, training enumerators, cross-verifying satellite data(Berg, 2009; Creswell, 2014; Yin, 2003) with ground realities, and applying both descriptive and thematic analyses using SPSS, ArcGIS, and ERDAS.
Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) provided expert insights on policy, planning, and environmental implications from local officials, planners, agricultural specialists, local leaders, as well as elders and displaced farmers who offered historical depth and lived perspectives. FGDs provided a platform to explore community views and experiences, coping strategies, evolving socio-spatial dynamics and gendered dimensions of land conversion through participatory dialogue.
Field Observation validated spatial and social findings through direct observation of land use patterns, settlement expansion, and farming disruptions.
Before full deployment, enumerators and supervisors underwent two days of training, followed by a 12% pilot test in adjusent town, Holeta, to refine tools and procedures. Daily field checks helped maintain data quality, completeness, and consistency. The integration of ground-truthing and geotagged imagery added visual depth to the analysis. This rigorous and participatory approach, guided by a tailored visual framework (see Fig. 2), ensured the study remained both accurate and locally relevant.
GIS and Satellite Image Analysis (2000 to 2023) also used to assess long-term land use and environmental changes using multi-temporal satellite imagery(Bikis et al., 2025; Yasin et al., 2025), enabling spatial quantification of urban expansion and agricultural land loss over 23 years integrating geospatial data, survey results, and qualitative insights related to Burayu's urban transformation. Landsat data, with consistent OLI-TIRS sensors and a resolution of 30 meters, offers clear images and easier identification of land cover changes(Getu & Bhat, 2024). The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a leading U.S. government agency for earth science, mapping, and natural resource monitoring(Woldesemayat & Genovese, 2021) provides this data free of charge, making it accessible and reliable. The 30-meter resolution provides enough detail without being too data-heavy. However, the lack of precise image dates could affect accuracy. Cloud cover and atmospheric corrections, not listed in the table, can impact results. The classification method used also limits understanding of the results' reliability. It is important to clarify image dates, cloud cover, atmospheric corrections, and classification techniques to improve the study's strength(Bekalo, 2024; Getu & Bhat, 2024; Yasin et al, 2025) Digital Camera was to take pictures of urban expansion in the study area(Table 1).
Materials and Software’s | Function |
|---|---|
ERDAS Imagine 2023 | To image pre-processing, layer stacking single bands, supervised classification of land classes and accuracy assessment of the classification |
ArcGIS 10.3 | To create study area shape file, identify path and row of the study area, data analysis, management, geo-referencing, the study area delineation and clipping and make layout for final mapping. |
Micro-soft excel | To perform different statistical calculations. |
Micro-soft word | To write the research paper. |
SPSS | To process, manage and analyze the data's collected. |
GPS | To collect ground control points (GCPs) used to conduct ground accuracy assessment. |
Digital camera | To capture urban expansion images in the study area. |
Sampling methods and sample size determination
A multi-stage random sampling approach was employed to select respondent households for this study. In the first stage, Burayu’s peri-urban area was purposively identified from among five sub-urban zones(Kelsey et al., 1996), based on its high potential for agricultural production and rapid spatial expansion. In the second stage, three perpheral kebeles were randomly chosen within Burayu Town. Finally, in the third stage, a total of 145 displaced households were selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling across the selected kebeles. Data collection was carried out through a structured questionnaire survey. According to (Kothari, 2004) the formula is given as:
n = = = = = 145
Where
n = required sample size = 145
N = population = 4832
Z = confidence interval at 95%, which is 1.96,
e = acceptable error term (0.08)
P = 0.5, q = 0.5,
P and q are estimates of the proportion of population to be sampled, and N = total population.
The sampling frame included a list of 4, 832 households that would be displaced from their land. In each peripheral kebele administration, a list of displaced households was generated from the kebele administration's records, as shown in Table 2.
Peripheral kebele | Total household | Displaced household | Sample size |
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Burayu Gafarsa | 8532 | 2110 | 63 |
Malka Gafarsa | 4619 | 800 | 24 |
Gafarsa Guje | 7532 | 1922 | 58 |
Total | 20683 | 4832 | 145 |
To ensure the sample represents households affected by issues in the outskirts of Burayu Town, a purposive sampling method was used. The researcher selected three kebeles (Table 2) out of six, chosen in consultation with local officials. These kebeles were believed to be highly impacted by urbanization, have good road access, and suitable infrastructure. A scientific method with needed confidence levels was used to select households from the chosen kebeles. This method, based on a finite population sample size calculation, was conducted according to(Diriba, 2018). Purposive sampling was also used to select 12 KIIs from different sectors and 6 FGD sessions were held. Members were recruited based on their lived experiences and perspectives with information obtained from local authorities(Creswell, 2014; Yin, 2003). KII selection focused on expert insights, while FGD participants were chosen based on community consensus, including youth, elderly farmers, women landholders, displaced farmers, traders, and informal land users.
Data processing and methods of analysis
The study area was chosen from Ethio-GIS and exported as a shape file using ArcMap. Re-projection was used to define the project and determine the area's extent and raw information (Burrough, 2001). The Earth Resource Data Analysis System (ERDAS Imagine 2013) software(Bekalo, 2024) was used to process the images. The first step in processing usually involves handling the raw data before any real analysis begins, to correct any distortions caused by the imaging equipment and the settings used. Once the images have been downloaded, projected, and stacked (which is part of the pre-processing stage), the land cover map is ready to be viewed within the ERDAS Imagine software interface(Bekalo, 2024).
The primary data collected from household were reviewed to ensure accuracy. Each completed questionnaire was checked by the field supervisor to ensure it was consistent with the information gathered during the household survey and then analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27 software (Pallant, 2007). Descriptive statistics such as frequencies, percentages and averages were conducted using cross-tab to examine variables such as gender, age, family size, education level, and the perception of the causes, perceptions, effects of urban expansion on farming and livelihoods and coping mechanizams adapted to challenges among displaced communities. The results were presented and analyzed using tables, figures, and charts to visual selected variables of the study.
Finally, to examine the qualitative data, all key informant interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were written down exactly as they were spoken, translated into English to maintain consistency and ensure cultural accuracy, and then made anonymous to keep the participants' identities private. A thematic content analysis was carried out using open and axial coding methods(Tong et al., 2018). The initial codes were based on related research and matched the study's main questions(Yin, 2003). The coding process and organizing the data were helped by using qualitative analysis software, NVivo.
Land cover and land use change detection analysis was also conducted to accurately identify and map land cover and land use patterns in the study area, a combination of geospatial tools, including Google Earth and high-resolution aerial photographs(Burrough, 2001), was utilized. These resources supported the precise delineation of study sites and initial classification of land cover features. Following site identification, land cover change detection was conducted to assess temporal shifts in land use. This analysis utilized Landsat satellite imagery from the years 2000 and 2023. The images were classified independently and then compared using post-classification comparative analysis, a widely accepted technique that enables map-to-map and image-to-image comparisons across time periods (Girma et al., 2025; Gontte & Molla, 2024). Change detection was performed through image differencing, which highlights alterations between classified datasets. This approach allowed for the quantification and visualization of land cover transitions. Final mapping and layout preparations were based on these classified outputs(Getu & Bhat, 2024). To ensure accuracy, the results of image classification were validated through ground truth verification, involving direct observation and cross-checking with field data(Burrough, 2001)
Figure 5
Methodological flow chart, own construction.
Result and Discussion
Descriptive analysis of survey and qualitative studies
Household leadership is predominantly male (75.9%), reflecting cultural or economic patterns; female-headed households make up 24.1%. Religious affiliation is diverse: Orthodox Christians (31%), protestants (24.8%), and Wakefata followers (24.2%). Average family size was 4–6 members, indicating moderate household size. Education levels reveal both progress and gaps: 15.2% are illiterate, while most have completed primary or secondary school; only 6.2% reached tertiary education. This points to a community striving for educational advancement, yet still facing barriers that call for improved access and infrastructure.
Variables | Variable categories | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Sex | Male | 110 | 75.9 |
Female | 35 | 24.1 | |
Religion | |||
Orthodox | 45 | 31 | |
Protestant | 36 | 24.8 | |
Catholic | 10 | 6.9 | |
Muslim | 19 | 13.1 | |
Wakefata | 35 | 24.2 | |
Family size(in number) | |||
5 or less | 21 | 14.5 | |
6–8 | 58 | 40 | |
9–11 | 41 | 28.3 | |
12–13 | 15 | 10.3 | |
14 or more | 10 | 6.9 | |
Age(in year) | |||
29 yers or more | 36 | 24.8 | |
30–39 | 38 | 26.2 | |
40–49 | 33 | 22.8 | |
50–59 | 25 | 17.2 | |
60 or more | 13 | 9 | |
Education status | |||
Illiterate | 22 | 15.2 | |
Read and write | 33 | 22.8 | |
Primary education(1–4) | 19 | 13.1 | |
Primary education (5–8) | 24 | 16.5 | |
Primary secondary education (9–10) | 23 | 15.9 | |
Secondary education(11–12) | 15 | 10.3 | |
Tertiary education | 9 | 6.2 |
The KII participants (Table 4) were predominantly men (66.7%), reflecting gendered roles in land management and decision-making; most were aged 36–50 (41.7%), suggesting lived experience with urban growth and livelihood shifts. Education levels varied: primary and secondary graduates (33.3% each) offered formal insights into land issues, while those with non-formal education (16.7%) contributed grassroots perspectives on displacement. Religious and ethnic identities, mainly Orthodox Christian (58.3%) and Oromo (75%), highlighted spiritual ties to land and local cultural values. This diverse mix enriched understanding of land use change, governance challenges, and community adaptation.
Characteristics | Category | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Perheral kebele | Burayu Gafarsa | 3 | 25.0 |
Malka Gafarsa | 4 | 33.3 | |
Gafarsa Guje | 5 | 41.7 | |
Sex | Male | 8 | 66.7 |
Female | 4 | 33.3 | |
Age Group | 25–35 | 3 | 25.0 |
36–50 | 5 | 41.7 | |
50+ | 4 | 33.3 | |
Education Status | Non-formal | 2 | 16.7 |
Primary | 4 | 33.3 | |
Secondary | 4 | 33.3 | |
Tertiary | 2 | 16.7 | |
Religion | Orthodox | 7 | 58.3 |
Protestant | 3 | 25.0 | |
Muslim | 2 | 16.7 | |
Ethnicity | Oromo | 9 | 75.0 |
Amhara | 3 | 25.0 |
The push behind Burayu’s peri-urban expansion
In this section we analyzed community-centered empirical findings blend quantitative data with qualitative insight, and it reflects the lived realities of urban expansion in Burayu Town in a way that is both empathetic and analytically grounded.
Drivers of expansion | Community Survey Question | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Governance and planning deficits | Do you believe poor management and planning are leading to more urban growth? | 59 | 40.69 |
Land speculation | Does buying land for profit accelerate urban land conversion in Burayu? | 43 | 29.66 |
Population growth and migration | Do you believe population growth and migration are driving urban expansion? | 20 | 13.79 |
Infrastructure development | Is the construction of roads, utilities, and facilities contributing to expansion? | 10 | 6.90 |
Sociocultural aspirations | Do cultural values and aspirations influence land use and urban growth in Burayu? | 8 | 5.52 |
Economic development | Does economic growth play a role in Burayu’s urban expansion? | 5 | 3.45 |
Total | 145 | 100 |
According to the survey respondents, the expansion of Burayu Town into surrounding farmland is driven by a combination of interrelated factors. Weak governance and urban planning and limited enforcement of development regulations have allowed informal and uncoordinated growth to spread unchecked. In Burayu Town (Table 5), urban expansion is more than just concrete and construction, it is shaped by people’s lived experiences and perceptions. Majority, nearly 41.0% of respondents pointed to gaps in governance and urban planning, suggesting that weak oversight and reactive policies are fueling uncoordinated sprawl and this was aligned with arrays of empirical studies in Ethiopia (Bayuma & Abebe, 2024; Girma et al, 2025; Hambe et al, 2023) and elsewhere abroad(Aboda et al., 2019; Alegana et al., 2012; Christian Relief and Development Association [CRDA], 2004; Hirpa et al., 2023; MacDonald, 2025; Somefun & Ibisomi, 2016). The survey finding shows that majority of respondents (40.69%, n = 59) linked Burayu’s disorderly expansion to weak planning agencies, fragmented governance, and poor planning practices. Qualitative assessments echo this, pointing to similar structural problems in the town’s management system. A Key Informant Interview with the kebele Administrator from Gafarsa Guje site captures this reality:
In my kebele, Malka Gafarsaa, he said there is no clear plan for how land should be used for urban development. Decisions are made in separate groups, and the voices of local people are rarely considered. Because of this, farmland is often converted to other uses without any long-term vision.
At the same time, speculative land purchases, often made for profit rather than productive use, alongside infrastructure investments in roads and housing, have further accelerated the expansion of farmland into urban and non-agricultural plots and this agrees with similar studies conducted in Northern Ethiopia(Arega, 2023; Mekuriaw, 2019). Almost thirty percent (n = 43) of survey participants linked Burayu’s rapid peri-urban expansion to the actions of wealthy individuals and investors, driven by land speculation and expectations of future urban growth. This concern was echoed in our focus group discussions. A community elder from Malka Gafarsa shared his experience:
In my neighborhood, it is common for people with money to buy land only to resell it later at a higher price. Most of them don’t live here, and their goal is not to support the community. They are focused on raising land values, which in turn drives up costs and gradually pushes local residents out.
Jointly, the survey data and community voices highlight how speculative investment is reshaping Burayu’s peri-urban landscape, fueling rising land prices, weakening local tenure security, and intensifying the pressure on long-standing residents
Additionally, a rapidly growing population and continuous in-migration have increased the demand for residential and commercial land When asked about the forces driving this rapid growth, over 13.79% of respondents identified population pressure and migration as the primary cause. The survey findings align with the patterns observed in the qualitative findings. In support of survey report, one of the KII(Urban Planner-Municipality expressed his concerns as follows:
We are seeing more and more people arriving here, some from nearby towns and villages, others from far across western Oromia. The pace of this population movement is overwhelming. Our housing, basic services, and access to land are being stretched beyond what we can manage. The changes are happening so quickly that our local systems simply cannot keep up.
This finding echoes what earlier studies have shown. peri-urban areas in developing countries, including Ethiopia, are expanding and sprawling at a rapid pace (Ayele & Tarekegn, 2020; Degu, 2014; Gnamura et al., 2024). In our discussions with peri-urban communities (Malka Gafarsa – Community representatives), people themselves emphasized these changes, pointing to the fast growth, the pressure on land, and the strain on housing and services. The added that rural families are moving in, people from the inner city of Finfinne are seeking space, and newcomers from western Oromia and beyond are arriving. According to the partcipants some are drawn by the promise of opportunity near the capital, while others are escaping instability back home. As a result, farmland is disappearing, and the demand for housing and services is rising sharply on the town’s outskirts. For many FGD partcipants, Burayu has become a springboard a transitional place where hopes for a better life begin to take root.
While infrastructure development is often celebrated as a sign of progress, in Burayu only 6.9% of respondents mentioned it as a driver of change. This suggests that roads and utilities are not leading expansion, but rather sprawling behind it(Hirpa et al., 2023). This finding aligns with the observations of key informants, who emphasized that significant LUCC have taken place over the past two and almost half decades (2000–2023).
A technical officer at the municipality explained it this way:
Yes, roads, power lines, and water systems are expanding into the peri-urban areas of Burayu, which looks positive at first. But these projects often take away farmland and overlook the needs of local communities. Decisions are made from the top down, with little input from the people. Honestly, I don’t understand why it happens this way.
The survey results and this lived testimony jointly reveals a pattern. Infrastructure growth is trailing urban sprawl, often at the expense of farmland and community involvements. This highlights the need for more inclusive and responsive planning that balances development with local realities. In line with this result, previous studies(Baral, 2025; Feyera, 2005; Jooste et al., 2019; Keno et al., 2019; Talema & Nigusie, 2023) also reported that farmland expansion due to infrastructure growth is the main reason for the loss of farmlands and natural habitats like forests, bushlands, and grasslands in Ethiopia.
Sociocultural aspirations and Economic growth were also seen as minor contributors. Yet, even if their immediate impact appears limited, these forces may hold deeper meaning in shaping the town’s long-term identity and patterns of land use. Small part of the households (5.52%) mentioned sociocultural reasons, which suggest that the living conditions and services in urban areas are attracting people from both rural and urban backgrounds, thus contributing to the growth trends. Qualitative Finding (FGD – Local Business Owner, Burayu Gafarsa) highlights:
I have lived in Burayu Gafarsa for more than 15 years, and the way land is being used is changing too quicklyit, has become very difficult to manage. The growing economy is bringing jobs and business opportunities, especially in construction and retail, which many see as positive. But at the same time, agriculture is being pushed aside. Land that once belonged to and was shared by the community is now caught in competition, with rising demand from businesses and newcomers. This shift is reshaping not only the local economy but also the social fabric of Burayu and the nearby woredas.
Taken together, the findings present a grounded, community-informed picture of urbanization in Burayu. They highlight a process unfolding from the bottom up, where local realities, pressures, and aspirations are reshaping the town more than abstract models of development. This perspective offers valuable guidance for sustainable urban planning: one that is inclusive, responsive, and firmly rooted in the lived experiences of the community.
Only a small proportion of survey respondents (3.45%, Table 5) pointed to economic development, particularly industrial expansion and the growth of the service sector as a factor attracting workers and investment. Yet even this modest percentage reveals important dynamics: the town’s borders are being pushed outward as new opportunities emerge. This perspective was reinforced during a Focus Group Discussion with a representative of the Women’s Affairs office in Malka Guje. She explained:
From my experience, I see that some families want their children to live in urban-style homes with modern facilities. This shows a strong shift away from farming toward urban lifestyles, even though it means leaving behind ancestral land and assets. Such choices are accelerating the transformation of agricultural land into urban land in Burayu and the surrounding peri-urban areas.
Together, the survey results and community voices highlight how economic aspirations and lifestyle changes, though cited by only a few, carry deep implications for land use. They reveal a gradual but powerful reorientation of values, where modern housing and services are prioritized over traditional farming, reshaping Burayu’s peri-urban landscape.
The pulls behind farmland loss to urban growth in peri-urban zones
A
Table 6 depicts survey results regarding the forces pulling farmland toward urban and non-agricultural uses and challenges in changing land use (N = 145). It illustrates how traditional farming plots in Burayu are steadily giving way to residential, commercial, and industrial uses. For local communities, this transformation is not just a technical matter of land allocation, it is a lived reality shaped by uncertainty, economic pressure, and policy gaps. Survey responses reveal that more than a quarter (26.21%) of participants identified land tenure insecurity as a major driver, showing how unclear ownership rights often push farmers and landholders to sell or repurpose their land. The survey results pointing to land tenure insecurity as a major driver of farmland conversion are strongly reinforced by the qualitative evidence. A Key Informant Interview (KII) with a Land Administration Officer in Gafarsa Guje revealed that many residents feel deeply insecure because their traditional land rights lack formal recognition. Without official certificates, these claims are often dismissed when developers arrive, leaving households uncertain about the future of their land. Similarly, a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with displaced farmers from Malka Gafarsa highlighted how families who once farmed peacefully now live with anxiety and fear. Although conversations about legal documents and registration exist, they have not been acted upon, and this gap has pushed many to sell their land preemptively to avoid displacement. The survey percentages and the lived testimonies jointly show that unclear ownership rights are not just a technical issue, they translate into emotional stress, financial loss, and the forced reshaping of livelihoods in Burayu’s peri-urban communities.Key conversion pressures | Community survey question | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Land tenure insecurity | Does uncertainty in land ownership lead to farmland conversion? | 38 | 26.21 |
Policy and institutional gaps | Do weak policies and institutions accelerate unauthorized land conversion? | 34 | 23.45 |
Market pressures | Do rising land prices influence landowners' decisions? | 30 | 20.69 |
Urban encroachment | Is urban expansion contributing to changes in land use? | 24 | 16.55 |
Unpredictable Climate variability | Are shifting climate patterns driving land use changes? | 13 | 8.97 |
Fast technological changes | Do you think that advancements in technology influence how agricultural land is managed? | 6 | 4.14 |
Total | 145 | 100 |
Policy and institutional gaps followed closely at 23.45%, pointing to weak enforcement and unclear regulations that allow unauthorized conversions to continue. The results show that residents of peri-urban Burayu Town, within Shager City in the Oromia Region, highlight the absence of coordinated land use planning and weak enforcement as key reasons for uncontrolled land conversion. This perception is echoed in qualitative accounts. A key informant from Burayu Municipality explained that overlapping and conflicting rules between federal, Finfinne, Shager City, and local authorities in the last three decades and half create confusion over land rights and city boundaries, opening the door for uncontrolled development. Community reports from Gafarsa Guje add a human dimension to this problem. participants in a focus group discussion shared that decisions are made far away from them, and they only learn about new rules after they are already in place. Policies are not explained, and sometimes they contradict each other, leaving residents feeling excluded from municipal processes. For these households, the lack of clarity and participation is not just a technical issue, it is a lived reality that generates frustration, uncertainty, and a sense of disempowerment in the face of rapid urban change. Our results match those of related studies conducted in Nigeria and Kenya(Cherotich et al, 2024; Ojo & Baru, 2016)
Market pressures, including rising land prices, were highlighted by 20.69%, reflecting how economic incentives are reshaping everyday land decisions. During fieldwork in Burayu Gafarsa, a peri-urban community on the outskirts of Addis Ababa, local merchants and farmers shared their lived experiences of land dispossession and shifting livelihoods. Their voices reveal the human cost of policy decisions and market pressures that often remain invisible in official planning documents.
One merchant explained:
The increase in land and input costs is pushing farmers to sell their farms, as trading offers quicker returns. But the loss of land and displacement made us lose our fixed asset permanently, an asset that should have passed across generations.
Rising costs of agricultural inputs and land values have created unsustainable conditions for smallholder farmers. Many see trading as a quicker, more reliable source of income compared to farming. Selling land is not simply an economic transaction, it represents the erosion of a family’s fixed asset base. Land in this context is more than property; it is heritage, security, and continuity. The merchant’s emphasis on “passing across generations” highlights the cultural and social dimensions of land. Displacement disrupts not only livelihoods but also the transmission of identity, tradition, and stability. The testimony conveys grief and frustration. Farmers are not just calculating profits; they are mourning the loss of permanence and belonging. The findings corroborate an array of similar studies conducted elsewhere(Güneralp et al., 2017; Fadda, 2024; Mengist, 2023)
Urban encroachment, mentioned by 16.55%, captures the visible spread of city boundaries into farmland. A land officer from Burayu, who used to be a farmer, shared his worries:
Many of us small farmers feel unsafe because our land is not officially recognized. Some people have traditional rights, but they don’t have legal papers. When investors or developers come, those rights are often ignored. This makes us uncertain about whether our land will be secure in the future.
Although climate variability (8.97%) and technological change (4.14%) were cited less frequently, they still signal deeper system. Burayu is experienced as both a structural and human challenge. Together, these factors reveal the lived realities behind farmland loss, showing how local households experience and interpret the pressures that are transforming agricultural land into urban and other non-farm uses. The study shows why farmland in Burayu is shrinking due to land conversion pressures.
Agricultural land use patterns under urban expansion pressure
In the peri-urban fringes of Burayu, the landscape is changing and residents are keenly aware of it. A striking 67.6% of respondents reported seeing farmland converted into urban developments, reflecting a visible shift from cultivation to construction. This transformation is not just about buildings, it’s about the loss of agricultural identity and the pressures of urban sprawl. Community observations on land use change in peri-Buray highlights farmland, grazing areas, streams, forests, and even cultural sites like Oda trees are being replaced by houses, shops, and roads. What once sustained households is now covered in concrete(Argaie et al., 2022; Baral, 2025; Gnamura et al., 2024).
Noted as follow is a farmer’s voice in peri-urban landscape of Burayu Gafarasa:
This land used to feed my family. Now, I see walls and shops where maize once grew. It feels like losing not only our food but our history.
Another elder added as follows:
We gathered under the big tree for community events. Today, that space is gone, covered by a road. It is as if our memories have been erased.
This mirrors global urban sprawl patterns (Nuissl & Siedentop, 2021) and Ethiopian cases like Bahir Dar, where land conversion rose by 25% between 2010–2020 (Arega, 2023). KII (Gafarsa Guje): “Farmland that supported us is now gone, replaced by urban spaces.” FGD (Burayu woman household head): “I lost my maize farm last year. Now I survive on daily labor, and even my rented room feels temporary.”
Observed pattern | Survey question | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Farmland conversion to urban space | Have you noticed agricultural land being transformed into urban developments? | 98 | 67.6 |
Fragmentation of farmland | Have you observed farmland being divided or split due to urban expansion? | 86 | 59.3 |
Decline in agricultural investment | Has urbanization pressure reduced investment in farming in your area? | 74 | 51.0 |
Total | 145 | 100.00 |
Nearly 60% observed fragmentation of farmland, where once-contiguous plots are being split into smaller parcels, often for residential or commercial use. This pattern disrupts traditional farming practices and signals a shift toward individualized landholding and speculative development. This finding is supported by various studies (Bayuma & Abebe, 2024; Getu & Bhat, 2024; Lemma., 2024).
KII (Burayu Gafarsa): “Land is being split into tiny plots. Once divided, it’s no longer useful for farming.”
Meanwhile, over half of respondents (51%) believe that urbanization is discouraging investment in agriculture, suggesting that farming is no longer seen as viable or secure in the face of expanding city boundaries. This qualitative analysis aligns with well-documented challenges in peri-urban land management, such as the division of land into multiple, scattered parcels (Getu & Bhat, 2024; Haregeweyn et al., 2012; Nuissl & Siedentop, 2021).
FGD (Malka Guje elder): “Farmers are spending less on seeds and tools because they fear losing their land. Some may quit farming altogether.
These insights offer a grounded, community-driven understanding of land use dynamics in Burayu, vital for shaping inclusive land governance frameworks
Household perceptions of urbanization’s impact on land ownership
Response | n | % |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 102 | 70.3 |
No | 43 | 29.7 |
Total | 145 | 100.0 |
When people in the study area were asked a direct yes-or-no question about whether urban growth has affected their land, most replied yes. Out of 145 displaced farmers, 102 (70.3%) reported that they had lost land because of city expansion. Only 43 (29.7%) said they had not faced this problem. This shows that farming livelihoods are under serious pressure, with many households being disrupted or displaced This shows that farming livelihoods in the area are at risk of being disrupted and displaced.
Land Category | Yes/No Question | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Agricultural land | Has your household faced a loss of agricultural land because of urban expansion? | 55 | 37.9 |
Residential land | Has your residential land been impacted or decreased in size due to urban expansion? | 30 | 20.7 |
Range land | Have you lost access to range land as a result of urban development? | 17 | 11.7 |
Miscellaneous | Has any other type of land, such as communal, forested, plantation land or utility land, been lost? | 43 | 29.7 |
Total | 145 | 100.0 |
According to the data in Table 9, a significant number, 37. 9%, of the people surveyed reported that they have lost farmland due to urbanization, which is the highest percentage recorded. The next most common reason for land loss is listed under "miscellaneous," with 29. 7% of participants mentioning this, indicating the need for more research to understand all the types of land that are being impacted. Residential land loss follows closely, affecting 20. 7% of those surveyed, which shows the major impact on built-up areas. This data shows how important it is to address the complex issue of land loss caused by urban development. These findings are in line with previous studies (Girma et al., 2025; Hambe et al., 2023). Community members shared that the loss of land is not just about farmland disappearing, it touches every part of their lives. Grazing areas and even cultural spaces that once held community gatherings are now being replaced by houses, shops, and roads. Farmers described how fields that once produced maize and sorghum are now hemmed in by concrete walls. For many, this transformation is more than an economic setback; it feels like losing their heritage, their sense of belonging, and the security that land once provided
LULCC detection and agricultural land conversion between 2000 and 2023
The study also used satellite images and GIS technology to examine changes in land use and land cover to track how different land types, such as forests, farmland, and urban areas have changed over time. This analysis uncovered trends like the expansion of urban areas and the decrease in forest land, along with information on how quickly these changes occurred, where they happened, and their impacts.
Land use/land cover in 2000
Class name | 2000 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Area (in ha) | Area (in %) | ||
1 | Water bodies | 165.9 | 1.9 |
2 | Vegetation | 1028.7 | 11.8 |
3 | Cropland | 3485.0 | 40.1 |
4 | Built-up | 3681.7 | 42.4 |
5 | Bare land | 1.2 | 0.0 |
6 | Grassland | 328.1 | 3.8 |
Total | 8690.6 | ||
Fig. 4
Land use and land cover 2000
As shown in Table 10 and Fig. 4, the land use and land cover data from 2000 show a landscape where urban areas and farmland are in a noticeable balance. Urban areas are the most common, making up 42. 4% of the region (3681. 7 ha), showing a high level of development. Farmland is the second largest category, representing 40. 1% (3485 ha), indicating a strong agricultural sector. There are also natural areas such as greenery (11. 8%, 1028. 7 ha), meadows (3. 8%, 328. 1 ha), and water bodies (1. 9%, 165. 9 ha), which suggest the potential for biodiversity and healthy ecosystems. However, the uneven spread between urban spaces and natural areas raises concerns about long-term sustainability. The large amount of farmland may cause stress on natural environments
and water resources due to farming practices. Good management of resources is important to address the competing needs of urban growth, farming, and environmental protection. The relatively large amount of green space in 2000 could help in capturing carbon, but continued urban expansion and changes in farming practices might affect this capability. This finding matches the research by Tessema et al., (2024). Further analysis that includes historical trends, geographical distribution, and economic factors will give a better understanding of how land use has changed in the area and its environmental impact.
Land use/ Land cover in 2023
The land use and land cover map for Burayu Town in 2023 gives a clear picture of how the town is organized, showing residential, commercial, and industrial areas along with farmland, parks, and water features.
Class name | 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Area in ha | % | ||
1 | Water bodies | 156.4 | 1.8 |
2 | Vegetation | 1001.6 | 11.5 |
3 | Cropland | 2120.8 | 24.4 |
4 | Built-up | 4854.5 | 55.9 |
5 | Bare land | 1.3 | 0.0 |
6 | Grassland | 556.1 | 6.4 |
Total | 8690.7 | ||
Fig. 5
Land use and land cover in 2023
As shown in Table 11 and Fig. 5, the land use and cover data for 2023 shows a clear shift towards urban development. Constructed areas now cover the biggest part of the land, accounting for 55. 9%, which is a big increase from 42. 4% in 2000. This continued growth of urban areas suggests a pattern of development that might be harming other types of land use. Agricultural land, which used to cover a large portion of the region, 40. 1%, has now dropped to 24. 4%. This decrease could be due to urban expansion or economic factors. Although plant life still covers a large area (11. 5%), its slight decrease since 2000 shows possible stress on natural ecosystems (Güneralp et al., 2017). Notably, grasslands have increased from 3. 8% to 6. 4%, which may be because of natural changes or new land management strategies. These changes have environmental effects, as continued urbanization and loss of farmland could affect biodiversity, water availability, and air quality. The findings are in line with (Lemma et al., 2024; Tadesse & Baye, 2024). Managing resources effectively is important to balance city growth with farming and environmental protection. The possible decline in plant cover raises concerns about the region’s ability to absorb carbon, which makes it harder to fight climate change (Hirpa et al., 2023).
Land use and land cover changes from 2000 to 2023
Changes in land use and cover (LULC) are measured by looking at the size (in km²) and share of each land type at different times. The differences in these measurements show how much and how much of each land type has changed during the studied periods.
Class name | Area in ha 2000 | Area in ha 2023 | Rate of change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Water bodies | 165.9 | 156.4 | -0.4 |
2 | Vegetation | 1028.7 | 1001.6 | -1.2 |
3 | Cropland | 3485.0 | 2120.8 | -59.3 |
4 | Built-up | 3681.7 | 4854.5 | 51.0 |
5 | Bare land | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
6 | Grassland | 328.1 | 556.1 | 9.9 |
Total | 8690.6 | 8690.7 | ||
Table 12 shows how land use and cover changed between 2000 and 2023. The total area of the region remained almost the same, increasing slightly from 8690. 6 km² in 2000 to 8690. 7 km² by 2023. The biggest change was in developed land, which grew by 51. 0% during this time. On the other hand, agricultural land decreased by 59. 3%, and vegetation cover dropped by 1. 2%. Water bodies and land that wasn’t being used changed very little. These findings match those reported in (Bayuma & Abebe, 2024; Cherotich et al., 2024).
Fig. 6
Land Use Land Cover, 2000–2023
Fig. 7
The value of Area coverage, 2000–2023
Figure 6 and Fig. 7 show that the land use and land cover within the research area have experienced notable changes over the study period.
The data from the year 2000 depicts a landscape that maintains a relatively balanced state between urban development and agricultural activities. Urban areas dominate, making up 42. 4% of the overall landscape (3681. 7 ha), indicating a high degree of urban development. Agricultural land is the next largest category, accounting for 40. 1% (3485 ha), which suggests a strong agricultural presence. The presence of natural areas such as vegetation (11. 8%, 1028. 7 ha), pastures (3. 8%, 328. 1 ha), and water bodies (1. 9%, 165. 9 ha) underscores the potential for biodiversity and ecological benefits.
The land use and land cover data for 2023 reveals a significant shift towards urbanization, with built-up areas now comprising the largest portion of land use at 55.9%, an increase from 42. 4% in 2000. This trend suggests continued urban expansion, which may lead to the reduction of other land types. Agricultural land, which previously accounted for 40. 1% of the area, has decreased to 24. 4%, indicating a possible decline in farming activities, potentially influenced by urban expansion or economic changes. Although vegetation still occupies a significant portion (11. 5%), its slight decrease since 2000 may reflect increasing pressures on these natural areas. Interestingly, grassland has increased from 3. 8% to 6. 4%, possibly due to natural changes or alternative land management approaches. This observation aligns with the findings of Masha et al., (2025) and Talema & Nigusie (2024).
Confusion matrix and accuracy assessment of the image classification
Evaluating accuracy is a technique used to ensure the reliability of image classification by comparing the classified map with reference data.
A map generated from remote sensing data is essential. While accuracy assessment is important for traditional remote sensing methods, the development of advanced digital satellite remote sensing has increased the need for more sophisticated accuracy evaluations (Ajitesh et al., 2023).
Currently, accuracy evaluation is considered a crucial step in the image classification process. This is due to the possibility of classification algorithms misclassifying individual or groups of pixels into incorrect categories. Identifying and quantifying these classification errors is essential for using the resulting land use or land cover map in further change analysis. It helps users and stakeholders understand the level of inaccuracies and uncertainties present in the classification process. Therefore, an accuracy assessment was conducted to determine the reliability of the land cover maps.
A commonly used method for assessing the accuracy of classified images is the confusion matrix, which provides statistical and analytical insights into classification accuracy.
In this study, a confusion matrix was used, along with various quality metrics, including user accuracy, producer accuracy, overall accuracy, and Kappa analysis. The reference data for accuracy assessment was typically gathered from aerial photographs, high-resolution images (such as Google Earth), and field observations. The researchers examined test sample areas and assigned a class value to each. Subsequently, overall accuracy, user accuracy, producer accuracy, and the Kappa statistic were calculated using the error matrices (Table 13), followed by a brief explanation of each accuracy type and the Kappa statistic.
Class name | 2023 | |||||||
Water bodies | Vegetation | Cropland | Built-up | Bare land | Grassland | Total | ||
2000 | Water bodies | 147.8 | 0.4 | 15.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 165.9 |
Vegetation | 0.1 | 939.8 | 22.8 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 31.6 | 1028.4 | |
Cropland | 8.5 | 39.3 | 2057.9 | 1013.0 | 0.5 | 365.0 | 3484.2 | |
Built-up | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.1 | 3667.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 3681.4 | |
Bare land | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | |
Grassland | 0.0 | 19.9 | 15.6 | 138.1 | 0.0 | 154.3 | 327.9 | |
Total | 156.4 | 1001.4 | 2120.5 | 4853.7 | 1.3 | 555.8 | 8689.2 | |
Evaluation of precision
The Kappa statistic, which is commonly used to measure the difference between actual agreement and agreement that happens by chance, was also calculated.
This Kappa value represents a method used to assess precision based on a discrete multivariate approach (Talema & Nigusie, 2024). The Kappa values for the analyzed images were 0. 8678 in the year 2000 and 0. 8921 in 2023. This measure shows how well the reference pixels are classified according to the type of ground cover (Koroso, 2022). Table 14 shows that in the year 2000, the highest classification accuracy was for built-up areas at 90%, while the lowest was for vegetation at 85%. Similarly, the class with the highest accuracy in 2023 was grassland at 95. 50%, while the class with the lowest accuracy was built-up areas at 80. 0%. User accuracy indicates the probability that a pixel classified into a specific category actually belongs to that category in reality (Burrough, 2001). The results regarding user accuracy in this study showed that in the year 2000, the highest class accuracy was 90%, whereas the lowest was for water bodies at 84%. By 2023, the highest class accuracy was recorded for grassland at 95. 50%, and the lowest was for vegetation at 85. 12%.
Class Name | 2000 | 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Producers accuracy(%) | Users accuracy(%) | Producers accuracy(%) | Users accuracy(%) | |
Water bodies | 85.12 | 84 | 89.12 | 89.0 |
Vegetation | 85.0 | 86.12 | 85.0 | 85.12 |
Cropland | 90.0 | 90.0 | 89.0 | 90.85 |
Built-up | 90.0 | 90.20 | 80.0 | 80.20 |
Bare land | 85.10 | 85.10 | 85.10 | 85.10 |
Grassland | 87.50 | 87.50 | 95.50 | 95.50 |
Overall classification accuracy | 91.34 | 92.27 | ||
Overall, Kappa statistics | 0.8678 | 0.8921 | ||
Socioeconomic challenge of agricultural land use change
Challenges | n | % |
|---|---|---|
Livelihood displacement and disruptions | 106 | 73.1 |
Change in land tenure relations | 93 | 64.1 |
Gender-based inequalities in land access | 61 | 42.1 |
Social stratification | 70 | 48.3 |
The survey results in Table 15 highlight three interlinked challenges faced by peri-urban households in Burayu: livelihood disruptions, changes in land tenure relations, and gender-based inequalities in land access. Key Informant Interviews (KII) reveal that the old systems of communal and informal land transfer are collapsing. A kebele administrator in Burayu Gafarsa explained that land once shared or passed down unofficially is now being sold in fragmented plots, often without legal documentation. This uncertainty over rights mirrors broader literature on African peri-urban transitions(Bocuquier & Mukandila., 2011; Kamana et al., 2024), where informal tenure systems are increasingly replaced by speculative markets, leaving smallholders vulnerable.
Survey data show that 42.1% of respondents identify gender-related challenges of land ownership, a finding reinforced by municipal women’s affairs representatives. Women are rarely involved in household asset decisions and few hold formal property documents. As land ownership becomes more formalized, women’s informal rights are being eroded. This aligns with studies across Ethiopia and Sub-Saharan Africa that highlight how urban expansion often reinforces patriarchal property regimes, sidelining women from secure tenure and decision-making(Mezgebo, 2021; Tekalign, 2023).
Nearly half of respondents (48.3%) perceive emerging social hierarchies and Cultural Disruption. Migration flows, both incoming groups from Gurage, Dorze, Tigre, and Amhara, and displaced households from western Shoa and Wollega, introduce new customs, languages, and lifestyles. A local school director noted that newcomers often arrive with land titles, better housing, and business connections, creating “invisible boundaries” between them and long-term residents. This resonates with literature on urbanization-induced stratification(Güneralp et al., 2017; Kamana et al., 2024; The UN-Habitat, 2016), where indigenous communities face cultural erosion and weakened traditional governance as shared spaces become privatized.
The most common disruption reported (73.1%) is the loss of livelihoods. Farmers describe declining agricultural income, displacement from ancestral homes, and reliance on precarious informal jobs. A household head from Malka Guje lamented that farmland is being divided for newcomers’ developments, forcing locals into casual labor in factories or security work. These testimonies illustrate the shift from subsistence farming to a “survival economy”, echoing findings in peri-urban studies(Cherotich et al., 2024; Wolamo et al., 2024) that urban expansion often dismantles agrarian livelihoods and accelerates informalization.
Community coping and adaptation strategies
Variable | Community Question | n | % |
|---|---|---|---|
Non formal livelihoods | Have you engaged in different non formal ways of earning a living to cope? | 102 | 70.3 |
Social participation | Do you participate in local social processes to negotiate and resolve issues? | 67 | 46.2 |
Recognition of change | Do you recognize and understand the changes introduced to address your situation? | 39 | 26.9 |
Total | 145 | 100.0 |
The finding of the study shows that there is a significant level of livelihood diversification at 70.3%, highlighting the resilience of the community within the research area of Burayu. This suggests that households are capable of mitigating risks by relying on various income streams. The findings align with some studies conducted in southern Ethiopia(Girma et al., 2025; Mengist, 2023), which presents livelihood diversification as a method for survival and a means to achieve economic advancement, particularly in uncertain economic environments.
Most households in Burayu’s peri-urban areas have turned to non-formal livelihoods, with seven out of ten relying on casual labor, petty trade, or other informal jobs to survive. This coping strategy is vividly reflected in the voices of smallholder farmers and displaced families (Abdissa., 2005; Feyera, 2005). A livelihoods expert in Burayu Gafarsa explained that families who lost their agricultural land now sell household items, prepare meals, or collect firewood, while others seek temporary work in construction or transportation. These activities are not seen as permanent solutions but as survival strategies in the face of land dispossession(Hambe et al., 2023). Women vendors in Gafarsa Guje added that after losing their vegetable plots, they shifted to selling coffee, cow dung, charcoal, and firewood, often under conditions of harassment and unstable earnings. Their testimony underscores the precariousness of informal livelihoods and the absence of viable alternatives(Achamyeleh, 2017).
Alongside these economic adjustments, nearly half of the community members (46.2%) participate in social processes to negotiate and resolve disputes. This negotiation takes both formal and informal forms. An elder in Malka Gafarsa described how families sometimes negotiate with landowners for temporary stays or shared living arrangements, or rely on elders and spiritual leaders to mediate conflicts. While these arrangements provide short-term relief, they are fragile and leave households uncertain about their future. Such practices highlight the resilience of communities in creating informal safety nets, even as formal institutions struggle to provide adequate support(Abay et al., 2023).
Yet only about a quarter of respondents (26.9%) recognize and understand the institutional or policy measures introduced to address their situation. This limited awareness reflects deficiencies in participatory planning and communication. A local government official admitted that while land registration sessions have been organized, attendance is uneven, and households with stronger connections are better informed than others. Residents in Malka Gafarsa echoed this gap, noting that they hear only vague information or rumors about communal land titles, making it difficult to trust policies when they are already experiencing displacement. Literature reinforces this disconnect: Madekwe, (2025) points out that elite influence and unequal access to information obstruct grassroots participation, while Deininger et al, (2011) found that weak understanding of land and governance reforms correlates with poor participation in certification initiatives and insecure tenure in Ethiopia.
Taken together, the survey data, household testimonies, and scholarly insights reveal a layered reality. Informal livelihoods dominate as survival strategies, social negotiation provides fragile coping mechanisms, and institutional reforms remain poorly understood and unevenly accessed. This mix reflects both resilience and vulnerability: communities adapt creatively to loss, but gaps in policy communication and participatory governance deepen mistrust and marginalization(Aboda, 2019; Achamyeleh, 2017). The demographic profile of Burayu’s agricultural households adds further context. With 75.9% of households led by men, decision-making is shaped by cultural and economic factors that limit women’s influence. Religious diversity, Orthodox, Protestant, and Wakefata, enriches the social fabric but also complicates collective action. Medium-sized families suggest stable structures, yet low education levels (only 6.2% with higher education and 15.2% unable to read or write) constrain effective engagement with urban development and land management.
Strengths and limitations of the study
The study successfully demonstrates the diverse impacts of urban expansion, drawing on a combination of research methods. This multi-method approach enriches the analysis, allowing different perspectives to be captured and compared. By weaving together several techniques, the study provides a solid foundation for understanding how urban growth affects both social and environmental systems. At the same time, it has some limitations. The examples included are not broad enough to represent the full diversity of urban experiences, and stronger statistical tools like regression analysis could have helped pinpoint the most influential factors. In addition, the study does not yet bring in community voices or track changes over time—approaches that would add depth to the social and environmental story. These gaps highlight opportunities for future research to build on the foundation laid here, making the findings even more inclusive and insightful.
Conclusion and Recommendation
The result of the study reveals a dynamic, interwoven cycle where demographic pressures, economic incentives, and governance gaps drive land use transitions that fragment farmland and reshape livelihoods. These shifts trigger socioeconomic impacts, displacing smallholders, altering tenure systems, and deepening inequality, which communities respond to through diversification, indigenous negotiation, and grassroots advocacy. Urbanization in Burayu is producing a profound transformation in its peri-urban zones: livelihoods are informalized, social ties are strained, and institutional reforms remain distant from everyday realities. The evidence points to the urgent need for inclusive policy communication, stronger participatory planning, and targeted education programs to bridge the gap between households and governance structures, ensuring that resilience is not merely survival but a pathway to empowerment. Crucially, these responses feed back into the system, influencing policy reform, slowing land conversion, and reshaping the very forces that initiated change. This interconnected loop highlights how land, livelihoods, and local agency are deeply entwined, demanding inclusive, adaptive planning rooted in community realities.
Funding Declaration
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Clinical Trial Number: Clinical trial number: Not applicable
Declaration of competing interest
The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.
Data availability
The data used in this research is available upon request.
Declarations
section
Ethics statement and accordance
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The research protocol was reviewed and approved by committee members [Dr. Girmaye Kenasa, Dr. Dereje Chala, Dr. Tolera Megersa, Dr. Mezene Woyesa and Mr Alemayehu Lema/ the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of Wollega University in accordance with the ethical guidelines and regulations of the Ethiopian National Research Ethics Review Guideline. Permission was received from Burayu Town Municipality and Shaggar City Office. The purpose of the study was explained to all participants and a consent form approved by the Review Board was given to participants. The principal investigator emphasized that participation was completely voluntary and that they had the right to withdraw any time during the interview without giving any reason. Confidentiality and anonymity were explained to all participants.Consent to participate:
Informed consent was obtained from all participants prior to data collection. For participants under the age of 16, consent was obtained from a parent or legal guardian.
Consent to publish:
Not applicable
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Acknowledgement
Acknowledgment:I would like to extend my gratitude to Wollega University for their invaluable support, ethical clearance and permission to conduct this study. I am also especially grateful to Mr. Abdeta Tolassa, Chair of the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, for his exceptional assistance. My sincere thanks also go to all heads of Kebele administration for providing us essential support during data collection. I would like to extend my thanks to Burayu Town Moyer and Shaggar City Administration staff for their cooperation to conduct the study and providing information. The authors are also very grateful to the data collectors, supervisors, and individuals who directly and indirectly participated in this study.
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Author Contribution
Author Contributions Both authors equally contributed to the conception and design of the study. Conceptualization and material preparation were performed by D.C. and H.T. Data collection and analysis were conducted jointly by D.C. and H.T. The first draft of the manuscript was written collaboratively by both authors. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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