# Code and data for the article Jakhmola A., Jewell J., Vinichenko V., Cherp A. (2025). Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience 

### Notes
* Each R file provided can run standalone, provided that the working directory is set to the folder containing the supplementary files. 
* The analysis was run on a MacBook Pro 16" with an M1 Pro chip and 16GB RAM.
* The wind_model and solar_model scripts are computationally intensive and take several hours to run with the default settings (6-7 hours each on a MacBook Pro with an M1 Pro chip and 16GB RAM). It is recommended to first test the code with a reduced number of runs. 

## R code files

**PROLONG.R** - source code for PROLONG, our modelling framework;

**wind_model** – code for applying PROLONG to onshore wind;

**solar_model** – code for applying PROLONG to solar PV;

**fitting_functions.R** – code for fitting growth curves to empirical deployment data - originally developed in Cherp et al. (2021);

**national_takeoff_and_growth_analysis.R** – code for identifying takeoff and fitting growth curves to technology deployment data

**regional_allocation_algorithm.R** – code for allocating growth in our stylised counterfactual scenarios to different world regions;

**regional_scenarios_wind.R** – code for deriving regionally-differentiated deployment trajectories for onshore wind (also used for Figure 6);

**regional_scenarios_solar.R** – code for deriving regionally-differentiated deployment trajectories for solar PV (also used for Figure 6);

**figure2.R** – code for producing an illustration of different growth patterns for onshore wind and solar PV (replication of Figure 2);

** figure4.R** – code for hindcasting projections made using PROLONG and other projections (replication of Figure 4);

** figure5.R** – code for plotting projections made using PROLONG, counterfactual scenarios and IPCC AR6 scenario summaries (replication of Figure 5)



## Data files

**f2_XXX.csv** – source data for Figure 2

**hindcast_data_1.csv ** – source data for Figure 4 with projections from PROLONG and other models

**fig4_ranges.csv** – source data for Figure 4 with projected ranges from PROLONG

**counterfactual_trajectories.csv** – time-series with Early and Late acceleration scenarios for onshore wind and solar PV 

**counterfactual_trajectories_w_baseline.csv** – time-series with Early and Late acceleration scenarios for onshore wind and solar PV plus the Baseline scenarios

**global_electricity.csv** – time-series for global electricity generation 

**national_electricity.csv** – time-series for national electricity generation

**global_onshore_wind.csv**  –  time-series for global onshore wind generation 

**global_solarpv.csv** – time-series for global solar PV generation 

**global_solar_onshore_wind.csv** – merged time-series for global onshore wind and solar PV generation 

**ipcc_ranges.csv** – median and IQR for onshore wind and solar PV deployment in IPCC AR6 scenarios between 2020-2050

**national_onshore_wind.csv**  –  time-series for national onshore wind generation 

**national_solarpv.csv** – time-series for national solar PV generation 

**national_solar_parameters_share.csv** – parameters for growth parameters fit to systematically curtailed national solar PV deployment data

**national_onwind_parameters_share.csv** – parameters for growth parameters fit to systematically curtailed national onshore wind deployment data

**probabilistic_projections.csv** – probabilistic projections for onshore wind and solar PV between 2023-2050 using PROLONG

**regional_classification.csv** – classification of countries into 10 world regions based on the IPCC’s classification

**on_wind_historical_by_region_agg.csv** – time-series for region-wise historical onshore wind deployment 

**on_wind_historical_by_region_disagg.csv** –  time-series for region-wise historical onshore wind deployment with each region disaggregated into constituent countries

**on_wind_initialisation.csv** – initialisation data for calculating regional onshore wind growth in the counterfactual scenarios 

**solarpv_historical_by_region_agg.csv** – time-series for region-wise historical solar PV deployment 

**solarpv_historical_by_region_disagg.csv** –  time-series for region-wise historical solar PV deployment with each region disaggregated into constituent countries

 **solarpv_initialisation.csv** – initialisation data for calculating regional solar PV growth in the counterfactual scenarios 
 

