@Article{alvares2013,
author = "Alvares, Clayton Alcarde and Stape, Jose Luiz and Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar and de Moraes Gonçalves, Jose Leonardo and Sparovek, Gerd",
journal = "Meteorologische Zeitschrift",
month = 12,
year = 2013,
title = "Koppen's climate classification map for Brazil",
number = "6",
volume = "22",
pages = {711-728},
doi = "10.1127/0941?2948/2013/0507",
publisher = "Schweizerbart Science Publishers",
address = "Stuttgart, Germany"
}

@article{ANTUNESCAMPOS2020113160,
title = {The complementary nature between wind and photovoltaic generation in Brazil and the role of energy storage in utility-scale hybrid power plants},
journal = {Energy Conversion and Management},
volume = {221},
pages = {113160},
year = {2020},
issn = {0196-8904},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113160},
author = {Rafael {Antunes Campos} and Lucas {Rafael do Nascimento} and Ricardo Rüther},
keywords = {Hybrid solar and wind, Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, Solar and wind resource complementarity},
abstract = {Solar and wind sources together provided more than half of the Brazilian Northeast electricity generation in 2019. This growing share of renewable energies in the Brazilian energy matrix increases the importance of portfolio optimization and the energy storage management. This paper assesses the complementary nature between wind and photovoltaic generation in the Brazilian Northeast, and how this complementarity, together with energy storage, can reduce the shortcomings that the corresponding natural resource intermittency imposes on these sources. The work consists of two main analyses: (i) analysis of the capability in supplying the Brazillian Northeast region power demand with a hybrid wind + solar + storage power plant; and (ii) contingency optimization analysis for hybrid wind + solar + storage power plants. The results show that wind and solar resources are consistently complementary in the region, with a daily Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient of −0.51. Also, the load supply analysis shows that a renewable energy mix based on a 40\% wind and 60\% solar share would require the equivalent of only 6\% of its annual generation in storage capacity. An energy curtailment analysis showed that the complementary nature of the wind and solar resources, together with energy storage, can lead to a reduction of up to 11\% in transmission capacity demand.}
}

@article{FILIPPOANTONIOLLI2022,
title = {The role and benefits of residential rooftop photovoltaic prosumers in Brazil},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {187},
pages = {204-222},
year = {2022},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.01.072},
author = {Andrigo {Filippo Antoniolli} and Helena Flávia Naspolini and João Frederico {de Abreu} and Ricardo Rüther},
keywords = {Energy efficiency, Prosumer, Photovoltaics, Distributed-generation},
abstract = {With the declining costs of photovoltaics (PV), a recent and widespread uptake of residential rooftop PV is underway in Brazil and many other sunbelt countries. Electricity consumers produce some or all their energy and become prosumers = producers + consumers. We present a method to evaluate the role and benefits of residential rooftop PV to prosumers and show a case-study using one of the 1250 PV-powered households in the “Celesc PV Bonus Project”, promoted by the local distribution utility Celesc to demonstrate our method in Florianópolis-Brazil. The methodology was divided into five principal stages: (i) Solar resource at the site; (ii) PV system performance indicators; (iii) Consumption profiles; (iv) CO2 emissions avoided and; (v) Comparative analysis between the individual PV rooftop case study with the average of PV households in the Florianópolis region. From the utility's perspective, the annual electricity consumption was reduced by 18\% after PV integration. From the prosumer's perspective, the total annual consumption increased by 8\%. However, the annual reduction in electrical utility expenses was 54\%. The adoption of rooftop PV in residential households in Brazil was demonstrated to be advantageous, and payback times are still on a downward trend due to the continuing price reductions experienced by the PV technology.}
}

@Article{Avila-Diaz2020,
author={Avila-Diaz, Alvaro
and Benezoli, Victor
and Justino, Flavio
and Torres, Roger
and Wilson, Aaron},
title={Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections},
journal={Climate Dynamics},
year={2020},
month={Sep},
day={01},
volume={55},
number={5},
pages={1403-1426},
abstract={Brazil experiences extreme weather and climate events that cause numerous economic and social losses, and according to climate change projections, these events will increase in intensity and frequency over this century.This study adds to the body of research on Brazil's climate change by analyzing the historical patterns and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Brazil using the World Climate Research Program's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices framework. This novel approach analyzes climate extreme events over the past four decades (1980--2016) using multiple gridded observation and reanalysis datasets. Furthermore, future changes in climate extremes are analyzed from 20 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) at high horizontal resolution (0.25{\textdegree} of latitude/longitude), under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected changes in the extreme indices are analyzed over mid-twenty-first century (2046--2065) and end-of-twenty-first century (2081--2100) relative to the reference period 1986--2005. Results show consistent warming patterns with increasing (decreasing) trends in warm (cold) extremes in the historical datasets. A similar but more intense warm pattern is projected in the mid and end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation indices, observations show an increase in consecutive dry days and a reduction of consecutive wet days over almost all Brazil. The frequency and intensity of extremely wet days over Brazil are expected to increase according to future scenarios. Designing effective adaptation and mitigation measures in response to changes in climate extremes events depends on this improved understanding of how conditions have and are likely to change in the future at regional scales.},
issn={1432-0894},
doi={10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z},
url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z}
}

@Article{Almazroui2021,
author={Almazroui, Mansour
and Ashfaq, Moetasim
and Islam, M. Nazrul
and Rashid, Irfan Ur
and Kamil, Shahzad
and Abid, Muhammad Adnan
and O'Brien, Enda
and Ismail, Muhammad
and Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~o}es
and S{\"o}rensson, Anna A.
and Arias, Paola A.
and Alves, Lincoln Muniz
and Tippett, Michael K.
and Saeed, Sajjad
and Haarsma, Rein
and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
and Saeed, Fahad
and Kucharski, Fred
and Nadeem, Imran
and Silva-Vidal, Yamina
and Rivera, Juan A.
and Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar
and Mart{\'i}nez-Castro, Daniel
and Mu{\~{n}}oz, {\'A}ngel G.
and Ali, Md. Arfan
and Coppola, Erika
and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba},
title={Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America},
journal={Earth Systems and Environment},
year={2021},
month={Jun},
day={01},
volume={5},
number={2},
pages={155-183},
abstract={We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040--2059 and 2080--2099) relative to the reference period (1995--2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1--2.6, SSP2--4.5, SSP3--7.0 and SSP5--8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes---a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1--2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.},
issn={2509-9434},
doi={10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6},
url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6}
}

@Article{Beck2020,
author={Beck, Hylke E.
and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
and McVicar, Tim R.
and Vergopolan, Noemi
and Berg, Alexis
and Wood, Eric F.},
title={Publisher Correction: Present and future K{\"o}ppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution},
journal={Scientific Data},
year={2020},
month={Aug},
day={17},
volume={7},
number={1},
pages={274},
abstract={An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.},
issn={2052-4463},
doi={10.1038/s41597-020-00616-w},
}

@article{BLOOMFIELD20211062,
title = {Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {164},
pages = {1062-1075},
year = {2021},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125},
author = {H.C. Bloomfield and D.J. Brayshaw and A. Troccoli and C.M. Goodess and M. {De Felice} and L. Dubus and P.E. Bett and Y.-M. Saint-Drenan},
keywords = {Demand, Wind power, Solar PV, Climate change, Uncertainty, Scenarios},
abstract = {Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power system planning. Here, the impact of climate change on future European power systems is estimated. We show for the first time how a set of divergent future power system scenarios lead to marked differences in Europe’s total energy balance (demand-net-renewable supply) by 2050, which dominate over the uncertainty associated with climate change (∼50\% and ∼5\% respectively). However, within any given power system scenario, national power systems may be subject to considerable impacts from climate change, particularly for seasonal differences between renewable resources (e.g., wind power may be impacted by ∼20\% or more). There is little agreement between climate models in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern of these impacts, and even in the direction of change for wind and solar. More thorough consideration of climate uncertainty is therefore needed, as it is likely to be of great importance for robust future power system planning and design.}
}

@article{Boe2007,
author = {Boé, J. and Terray, L. and Habets, F. and Martin, E.},
title = {Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
volume = {27},
number = {12},
pages = {1643-1655},
keywords = {statistical downscaling, dynamical downscaling, hydrological impacts, climate change, regional climate, bias correction},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602},
eprint = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.1602},
abstract = {Abstract Two downscaling methods designed for the study of the hydrological impact of climate change on the Seine basin in France are tested for present climate. First, a multivariate statistical downscaling (SD) methodology based on weather typing and conditional resampling is described. Then, a bias correction technique for dynamical downscaling based on quantile–quantile mapping is introduced. To evaluate the end-to-end SD methodology, the atmospheric forcing derived from the large-scale circulation (LSC) of the ERA40 reanalysis by SD is used to force a hydrological model. Simulated discharges reproduce historical values reasonably well. Next, the dynamical and statistical approaches are compared using the Météo–France ARPEGE general circulation model in a variable resolution configuration (resolution around 60 km over France). The ARPEGE simulation is downscaled using the two methodologies, and hydrological simulations are performed. Regarding downscaled temperature and precipitation, the statistical approach is more efficient in reproducing the temporal and spatial autocorrelation properties. The simulated river discharges from the two approaches are nevertheless very similar: the two methods reproduce well the seasonal cycle and the daily distribution of streamflows. Finally, the results of the study are discussed from a practical impact study perspective. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society},
year = {2007}
}

@article{BOILLEY2015135,
title = {Comparison between meteorological re-analyses from ERA-Interim and MERRA and measurements of daily solar irradiation at surface},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {75},
pages = {135-143},
year = {2015},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.042},
author = {Alexandre Boilley and Lucien Wald},
keywords = {Meteorology, Solar radiation, Solar energy, Re-analyses, Measurements, Validation},
abstract = {This paper compares the daily solar irradiation available at surface estimated by the MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) re-analysis of the NASA and the ERA-Interim re-analysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against qualified ground measurements made in stations located in Europe, Africa and Atlantic Ocean. Using the clearness index, also known as atmospheric transmissivity or transmittance, this study evidences that the re-analyses often predict clear sky conditions while actual conditions are cloudy. The opposite is also true though less pronounced: actual clear sky conditions are predicted as cloudy. This overestimation of occurrence of clear sky conditions leads to an overestimation of the irradiation and clearness index by MERRA. The overall overestimation is less pronounced for ERA-Interim because the overestimation observed in clear sky conditions is counter-balanced by underestimation in cloudy conditions. The squared correlation coefficient for clearness index ranges between 0.38 and 0.53, showing that a very large part of the variability in irradiation is not captured by the re-analyses. Within an irradiation homogeneous area, the variability of the bias, root mean square error and correlation coefficient are surprisingly large. MERRA and ERA-Interim should only be used in solar energy with proper understanding of the limitations and uncertainties. In regions where clouds are rare, e.g. North Africa, MERRA or ERA-Interim may be used to provide a gross estimate of monthly or yearly irradiation. Satellite-derived data sets offer less uncertainty and should be preferred.}
}

@article { Cannon2015,
      author = "Alex J. Cannon and Stephen R. Sobie and Trevor Q. Murdock",
      title = "Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?",
      journal = "Journal of Climate",
      year = "2015",
      publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
      address = "Boston MA, USA",
      volume = "28",
      number = "17",
      doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1",
      pages=      "6938 - 6959",
}


@Article{Casagrande2021,
AUTHOR = {Casagrande, Madeleine S. G. and Martins, Fernando R. and Rosário, Nilton E. and Lima, Francisco J. L. and Gonçalves, André R. and Costa, Rodrigo S. and Zarzur, Maurício and Pes, Marcelo P. and Pereira, Enio Bueno},
TITLE = {Numerical Assessment of Downward Incoming Solar Irradiance in Smoke Influenced Regions—A Case Study in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado},
JOURNAL = {Remote Sensing},
VOLUME = {13},
YEAR = {2021},
NUMBER = {22},
ARTICLE-NUMBER = {4527},
ISSN = {2072-4292},
ABSTRACT = {Smoke aerosol plumes generated during the biomass burning season in Brazil suffer long-range transport, resulting in large aerosol optical depths over an extensive domain. As a consequence, downward surface solar irradiance, and in particular the direct component, can be significantly reduced. Accurate solar energy assessments considering the radiative contribution of biomass burning aerosols are required to support Brazil’s solar power sector. This work presents the 2nd generation of the radiative transfer model BRASIL-SR, developed to improve the aerosol representation and reduce the uncertainties in surface solar irradiance estimates in cloudless hazy conditions and clean conditions. Two numerical experiments allowed to assess the model’s skill using observational or regional MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD data in a region frequently affected by smoke. Four ground measurement sites provided data for the model output validation. Results for DNI obtained using δ-Eddington scaling and without scaling are compared, with the latter presenting the best skill in all sites and for both experiments. An increase in the relative error of DNI results obtained with δ-Eddington optical depth scaling as AOD increases is evidenced. For DNI, MBD deviations ranged from −2.3 to −0.5\%, RMSD between 2.3 and 4.7\% and OVER between 0 and 5.3\% when using in-situ AOD data. Overall, our results indicate a good skill of BRASIL-SR for the estimation of both GHI and DNI.},
DOI = {10.3390/rs13224527}
}

@Article{Cuartas2022,
AUTHOR = {Cuartas, Luz Adriana and Cunha, Ana Paula Martins do Amaral and Alves, Jessica Anastácia and Parra, Larissa Milena Pinto and Deusdará-Leal, Karinne and Costa, Lidiane Cristina Oliveira and Molina, Ruben Dario and Amore, Diogo and Broedel, Elisangela and Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique and Cunningham, Christopher and Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos and Marengo, José Antonio},
TITLE = {Recent Hydrological Droughts in Brazil and Their Impact on Hydropower Generation},
JOURNAL = {Water},
VOLUME = {14},
YEAR = {2022},
NUMBER = {4},
ARTICLE-NUMBER = {601},
ISSN = {2073-4441},
ABSTRACT = {Brazil has endured the worst droughts in recorded history over the last decade, resulting in severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The country is heavily reliant on water resources, with 77.7\% of water consumed for agriculture (irrigation and livestock), 9.7\% for the industry, and 11.4\% for human supply. Hydropower plants generate about 64\% of all electricity consumed. The aim of this study was to improve the current state of knowledge regarding hydrological drought patterns in Brazil, hydrometeorological factors, and their effects on the country’s hydroelectric power plants. The results show that since the drought occurred in 2014/2015 over the Southeast region of Brazil, several basins were sharply impacted and remain in a critical condition until now. Following that event, other regions have experienced droughts, with critical rainfall deficit and high temperatures, causing a pronounced impact on water availability in many of the studied basins. Most of the hydropower plants end the 2020–2021 rainy season by operating at a fraction of their total capacity, and thus the country’s hydropower generation was under critical regime.},
DOI = {10.3390/w14040601}
}


@Article{Dantas2022,
AUTHOR = {Dantas, Leydson G. and dos Santos, Carlos A. C. and Santos, Celso A. G. and Martins, Eduardo S. P. R. and Alves, Lincoln M.},
TITLE = {Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern Brazil by CMIP6 Model},
JOURNAL = {Water},
VOLUME = {14},
YEAR = {2022},
NUMBER = {24},
ARTICLE-NUMBER = {4118},
ISSN = {2073-4441},
ABSTRACT = {Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region’s greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30\% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB.},
DOI = {10.3390/w14244118}
}

@article{DEJONG2019390,
title = {Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {141},
pages = {390-401},
year = {2019},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086},
author = {Pieter {de Jong} and Tarssio B. Barreto and Clemente A.S. Tanajura and Daniel Kouloukoui and Karla P. Oliveira-Esquerre and Asher Kiperstok and Ednildo Andrade Torres},
keywords = {Climate change, Wind power, Solar radiation, PV, Renewable energy},
abstract = {In the coming decades, higher temperatures, significantly reduced rainfall and changing wind speeds are projected for various semiarid regions due to Global Warming. Hydroelectric production in Brazil's São Francisco basin has already declined as a result of regional climate change, however less is known about the impacts on other renewable resources. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on Brazil's solar and wind energy resources. Data from three different downscaled global climate models is used to estimate the percentage changes in average solar radiation and wind speed by the 2030s and 2080s under high emissions scenarios in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. Results show that due to climate change, solar energy potential could increase slightly at solar power plant locations in the NE and Southeast regions. Wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially across most of Brazil and at some wind farm locations wind power generation could increase by more than 40\%. Despite some inconsistencies between the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and renewable energy resource planning.}
}

@article{DUTTA2022,
title = {Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {188},
pages = {819-829},
year = {2022},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.023},
author = {Riya Dutta and Kironmala Chanda and Rajib Maity},
keywords = {Climate change, Renewable energy, Sustainable development goals (SDGs), Photovoltaic (PV) potential, Concentrated solar power (CSP), CMIP6},
abstract = {Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN) underline the importance of harnessing renewable energy sources for enhancing access to clean energy without compromising the global emission goals. This study explores the impact of climate change on global solar energy potential in the near- (2015–2040) and far-future (2041–2100). Simulated energy variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are used for the assessment. It is found that there is a 6–10\% decrease (with respect to 1981–2014 climatology) in Photovoltaic (PV) potential in the Indian subcontinent and China in the boreal autumn that is possibly linked to increased post-monsoon cloud cover. A consistent decrease is noticed in North America and Australia, whereas in Europe, the projected decrease in PV potential, even for the worst emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), is restricted only to the boreal winter season, thereby posing no real threat to future PV power planning. However, a mild decrease in PV potential in Africa during austral summer and a consistent decrease in Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) all over the world contradict earlier studies.}
}

@Article{Ehret2012,
AUTHOR = {Ehret, U. and Zehe, E. and Wulfmeyer, V. and Warrach-Sagi, K. and Liebert, J.},
TITLE = {HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"},
JOURNAL = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
VOLUME = {16},
YEAR = {2012},
NUMBER = {9},
PAGES = {3391--3404},
DOI = {10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012}
}

@Article{Eyring2016,
AUTHOR = {Eyring, V. and Bony, S. and Meehl, G. A. and Senior, C. A. and Stevens, B. and Stouffer, R. J. and Taylor, K. E.},
TITLE = {Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
experimental design and organization},
JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {2016},
NUMBER = {5},
PAGES = {1937--1958},
DOI = {10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016}
}

@article{FERRAZDECAMPOS2021112989,
title = {Hybrid power generation for increasing water and energy securities during drought: Exploring local and regional effects in a semi-arid basin},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
volume = {294},
pages = {112989},
year = {2021},
issn = {0301-4797},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112989},
author = {Érica {Ferraz de Campos} and Enio Bueno Pereira and Pieter {van Oel} and Fernando Ramos Martins and André Rodrigues Gonçalves and Rodrigo Santos Costa},
keywords = {Water-energy nexus, Solar power, Hybrid power plant, Water security, Resources management, Semi-arid},
abstract = {Reservoirs of hydropower plants (HPP) can amend water, energy, and food security in semi-arid regions. However, during severe droughts, the priority of energy demand leads to critical conditions of water availability. To reduce water use for energy, one possible measure is the adoption of solar power, an abundant energy source in semi-arid regions. This study assessed the influence of adding floating photovoltaic power (PV) in the large-scale reservoir of Sobradinho HPP, located in the São Francisco River (SFR), in Brazil, from 2009 to 2018. The simulated scenarios varied the installed PV power capacity from 50 to 1000 MW. For each scenario, water allocation was modified based on the solar-hydro equivalence that restrained the historical outflow of Sobradinho to maintain water in the reservoir. Besides, a diverse operation rule for the reservoirs in cascade of SFR was adopted to avoid ecological impacts of low streamflow. The scenarios were assessed in water security, solar-hydro electricity output, capacity factor of the powerplant, water and energy losses by evaporation and spilled water. Results show that a PV system starting from 250 MW was necessary to improve water security during the severe drought, reserving 0.7–2.3 of the annual water demand. In addition, the capacity factor was optimized from 29\% to 34–47\%. However, as the HPPs installed at SFR work as one system, the constrain of the river flow reduced the hydroelectricity by 4.4\% for 750 MW. We concluded that PV significantly influenced water security and ecological conditions of SFR, with benefits in the range of 250–750 MW. The research provides assessment on substituting hydro for solar power on the operation of reservoirs in cascade and identifies the correlated benefits in social and ecological aspects. This information can support decisions of water and energy supply system operators and public policies focused on integrated resources management in semi-arid regions.}
}

@ARTICLE{Firpo2022,
AUTHOR={Firpo, Mari Andrea Feldman and Guimaraes, Bruno dos Santos and Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio and Silva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Chadwick, Robin and Llopart, Marta Pereira and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de},   
TITLE={Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil},      
JOURNAL={Frontiers in Climate},      
VOLUME={4},           
YEAR={2022},      
DOI={10.3389/fclim.2022.948499},      
ISSN={2624-9553},   
ABSTRACT={Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.}
}

@inbook{Flato2013,
  author={Flato, G. and Marotzke, J. and Abiodun, B. and Braconnot, P. and Chou, S. C. and Collins, W. and Cox, P. and Driouech, F. and Emori, S. and Eyring, V. and Forest, C. and Gleckler, P. and Guilyardi, E. and Jakob, C. and Kattsov, V. and Reason, C. and Rummukainen, M.},
  editor={Stocker, T. F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S. K. and Doschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M.},
  title={Evaluation of climate models},
  booktitle={Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
  year={2013},
  pages={741--882},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press},
  address={Cambridge, UK},
  doi={10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020},
}

@Article{Gernaat2021,
author={Gernaat, David E. H. J. 
and de Boer, Harmen Sytze
and Daioglou, Vassilis
and Yalew, Seleshi G.
and M{\"u}ller, Christoph
and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
title={Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply},
journal={Nature Climate Change},
year={2021},
month={Feb},
day={01},
volume={11},
number={2},
pages={119-125},
abstract={Renewable energy resources, which depend on climate, may be susceptible to future climate change. Here we use climate and integrated assessment models to estimate this effect on key renewables. Future potential and costs are quantified across two warming scenarios for eight technologies: utility-scale and rooftop photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind energy, first-generation and lignocellulosic bioenergy, and hydropower. The generated cost--supply curves are then used to estimate energy system impacts. In a baseline warming scenario, the largest impact is increased availability of bioenergy, though this depends on the strength of CO2 fertilization. Impacts on hydropower and wind energy are uncertain, with declines in some regions and increases in others, and impacts on solar power are minor. In a future mitigation scenario, these impacts are smaller, but the energy system response is similar to that in the baseline scenario given a larger reliance of the mitigation scenario on renewables.},
issn={1758-6798},
doi={10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9},
}

@Article{Gidden2019,
AUTHOR = {Gidden, M. J. and Riahi, K. and Smith, S. J. and Fujimori, S. and Luderer, G. and Kriegler, E. and van Vuuren, D. P. and van den Berg, M. and Feng, L. and Klein, D. and Calvin, K. and Doelman, J. C. and Frank, S. and Fricko, O. and Harmsen, M. and Hasegawa, T. and Havlik, P. and Hilaire, J. and Hoesly, R. and Horing, J. and Popp, A. and Stehfest, E. and Takahashi, K.},
TITLE = {Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use
  in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of
  the century},
JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {2019},
NUMBER = {4},
PAGES = {1443--1475},
DOI = {10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019}
}

@Article{Gonzalez2024,
AUTHOR = {Gonzalez, J. O. and Martins, F. R.},
TITLE = {Performance study of a photovoltaic system operating on the southeastern coast of Brazil},
JOURNAL = {IEEE Latin America Transactions},
VOLUME = {22},
YEAR = {2024},
NUMBER = {5},
PAGES = {in press},
}%DOI = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016}
}

@article{HA2023,
title = {Comparative assessment of future solar power potential based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {206},
pages = {324-335},
year = {2023},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.039},
author = {Subin Ha and Zixuan Zhou and Eun-Soon Im and Young-Mi Lee},
keywords = {Solar power potential, Multi-model projections, Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5, Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6, Climate change mitigation},
abstract = {While the popularity and feasibility of solar power have increased toward achieving a low-carbon and climate-resilient society, it is uncertain how changes in climate attributes will affect the future potential of solar power output. This study presents a comparative assessment of future changes in solar power in terms of the technology for harnessing energy from insolation (PVP vs CSP), climate projections (CMIP5 vs CMIP6), and emission scenarios. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model projections capture the major characteristics of the global distribution seen in PVP and CSP calculated using the reanalysis data during the historical period. However, despite the general similarity to CMIP5-based results, CMIP6 models slightly outperform their CMIP5 counterparts regarding quantitative metrics and enhance the robustness of the future change signal estimated by the statistical significance and inter-model consistency. The future changes in PVP and CSP patterns are sensitive to the emission scenarios that can control the degree of warming. Under the fossil-fueled development scenarios, the greater increase in temperatures may lead to a high vulnerability of the solar power supply by reducing the output of both PVP and CSP. This study is timely and relevant to emphasizing the benefits of climate change mitigation, which can support the sustainable development of solar energy.}
}

@Article{Hempel2013,
AUTHOR = {Hempel, S. and Frieler, K. and Warszawski, L. and Schewe, J. and Piontek, F.},
TITLE = {A trend-preserving bias correction &ndash; the ISI-MIP approach},
JOURNAL = {Earth System Dynamics},
VOLUME = {4},
YEAR = {2013},
NUMBER = {2},
PAGES = {219--236},
DOI = {10.5194/esd-4-219-2013}
}

@article{Hersbach2020,
author = {Hersbach, Hans and Bell, Bill and Berrisford, Paul and Hirahara, Shoji and Horányi, András and Muñoz-Sabater, Joaquín and Nicolas, Julien and Peubey, Carole and Radu, Raluca and Schepers, Dinand and Simmons, Adrian and Soci, Cornel and Abdalla, Saleh and Abellan, Xavier and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Bechtold, Peter and Biavati, Gionata and Bidlot, Jean and Bonavita, Massimo and De Chiara, Giovanna and Dahlgren, Per and Dee, Dick and Diamantakis, Michail and Dragani, Rossana and Flemming, Johannes and Forbes, Richard and Fuentes, Manuel and Geer, Alan and Haimberger, Leo and Healy, Sean and Hogan, Robin J. and Hólm, Elías and Janisková, Marta and Keeley, Sarah and Laloyaux, Patrick and Lopez, Philippe and Lupu, Cristina and Radnoti, Gabor and de Rosnay, Patricia and Rozum, Iryna and Vamborg, Freja and Villaume, Sebastien and Thépaut, Jean-Noël},
title = {The ERA5 global reanalysis},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
volume = {146},
number = {730},
pages = {1999-2049},
keywords = {climate reanalysis, Copernicus Climate Change Service, data assimilation, ERA5, historical observations},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803},
eprint = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3803},
abstract = {Abstract Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing the ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new reanalysis replaces the ERA-Interim reanalysis (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. ERA5 is based on the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 which was operational in 2016. ERA5 thus benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, core dynamics and data assimilation. In addition to a significantly enhanced horizontal resolution of 31 km, compared to 80 km for ERA-Interim, ERA5 has hourly output throughout, and an uncertainty estimate from an ensemble (3-hourly at half the horizontal resolution). This paper describes the general set-up of ERA5, as well as a basic evaluation of characteristics and performance, with a focus on the dataset from 1979 onwards which is currently publicly available. Re-forecasts from ERA5 analyses show a gain of up to one day in skill with respect to ERA-Interim. Comparison with radiosonde and PILOT data prior to assimilation shows an improved fit for temperature, wind and humidity in the troposphere, but not the stratosphere. A comparison with independent buoy data shows a much improved fit for ocean wave height. The uncertainty estimate reflects the evolution of the observing systems used in ERA5. The enhanced temporal and spatial resolution allows for a detailed evolution of weather systems. For precipitation, global-mean correlation with monthly-mean GPCP data is increased from 67\% to 77\%. In general, low-frequency variability is found to be well represented and from 10 hPa downwards general patterns of anomalies in temperature match those from the ERA-Interim, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 reanalyses.},
year = {2020}
}

@inbook{Hoegh-Guldberg2018,
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Jacob, Daniela and Taylor, Michael and Bindi, Marco and Brown, Sally and Camilloni, Ines and Diedhiou, Arona and Djalante, Riyanti and Ebi, Kristie and Engelbrecht, Francois and Zhou, Guangsheng and Joel, Guiot and Hijioka, Yasuaki and Mehrotra, Shagun and Payne, Antony and Seneviratne, Sonia and Thomas, Adelle and Warren, Rachel and Halim, Sharina and Sherstyukov, Boris},
year = {2018},
month = {12},
pages = {175-311},
title = {Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems. In: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways [...]}
}

@Article{Hou2021,
AUTHOR = {Hou, X. and Wild, M. and Folini, D. and Kazadzis, S. and Wohland, J.},
TITLE = {Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability
in Europe based on CMIP6},
JOURNAL = {Earth System Dynamics},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {2021},
NUMBER = {4},
PAGES = {1099--1113},
DOI = {10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021}
}

@article{HUBER2016,
title = {Do climate models project changes in solar resources?},
journal = {Solar Energy},
volume = {129},
pages = {65-84},
year = {2016},
issn = {0038-092X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.12.016},
author = {Isabelle Huber and Luca Bugliaro and Michael Ponater and Hella Garny and Claudia Emde and Bernhard Mayer},
keywords = {Solar resources, Climate change, DNI, GHI, Irradiance, Radiative transfer},
abstract = {In the last two decades much concern has been raised with respect to global dimming and global brightening as a trend in surface solar global irradiance. Surface solar radiation drives various surface processes, like evaporation and photosynthesis, affects surface energy budget and impacts solar energy production technologies and other human activities. In particular, variations of solar resources due to climate change could harm the return of investment for solar energy projects. Therefore, we show a novel method to derive surface direct normal irradiance (DNI) from climate model input data. Since global horizontal (GHI) can be provided simultaneously in a consistent way by our method, this allows to study how projected atmospheric changes may modify GHI and DNI, and hence the output of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. Starting from a given input data set, we then provide concrete projections of solar resources for the middle of the current century. We perform radiative transfer calculations with atmospheric data produced by global climate models. Cloud data is obtained from the model E39C-A, a derivate of the general circulation model ECHAM4, aerosol data from the coupled aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. For the treatment of clouds in the radiative transfer model, that require particular care since they strongly modulate surface radiation, we introduced the new concept of effective optical thickness and implemented it into E39C-A. The simulations follow the IPCC SRES A1B scenario which describes a future world of rapid economic growth with a balanced use of renewable and fossil fuel power generation. Our calculations indicate that future (2035–2039) surface irradiances are likely to be reduced compared to past (1995–1999) irradiances mainly in southern and western Africa with a decrease of about −20\% in DNI and about −5\% in GHI. In Europe and Australia solar radiation is likely to increase by about +10\% in DNI and some 1–5\% in GHI. We observe nearly no change in North America. Climate change has most likely more impact on DNI than on GHI, CSP projects are hence more affected by climate change than PV ventures. The results from the new method can only be as reliable as the input data are. However, the order of magnitude and regional patterns of our findings are consistent with a recent study that applies other global climate models in combination with a different method to derive surface irradiances. The input data, which our projections strongly rely on, are plausible to the extent that they are qualitatively consistent with IPCC multi-model results for the same scenario as used here.}
}

@article{HUNT2018208,
title = {A review of the causes, impacts and solutions for electricity supply crises in Brazil},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
volume = {88},
pages = {208-222},
year = {2018},
issn = {1364-0321},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.02.030},
author = {Julian David Hunt. and Daniel Stilpen and Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos {de Freitas}},
keywords = {Electricity crisis, Water crisis, Energy security, Climate change adaptation},
abstract = {From the end of 2013 to the end of 2015, Brazil faced serious challenges to supply its demand for electricity due to a prolonged drought in the Southeast and Northeast regions with the consequent loss of hydroelectric generation. This paper presents an historical analysis of major world energy crises from 1988 to 2015 and in Brazil from 1924 to 2015. Analysing the natural river flow of key Brazilian dams from 1931 until 2017, this paper suggests that hydropower generation in Brazil has a 10–15 years cyclical pattern of hydropower generation. The periods of drought in this cyclical pattern usually coincides with energy crises due to the reduction in hydropower generation. It was found that the drought in 2015 had an impact of 110 TWh in hydropower generation, from which 25 TWh are due to head loss and 70 TWh are from lack of stored hydropower in July of 2014. In addition, 48 TWh were not generated due to delays in the construction of new power plants. Other causes of the Brazilian energy crisis of 2015 are presented and the overall electricity generation impact of these causes are compared. In addition, this paper presents the impacts on the energy, water and food supply sectors in Brazil, and the strategies employed to reduce the impact of the crises. With the intention of preventing future energy crises, the paper then shows the potential alternatives to improve electricity supply security in Brazil, particularly in terms of diversifying and widening the share of renewable sources and increasing the energy storage potential of the country.}
}

@article{JACOBSON2017108,
title = {100\% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World},
journal = {Joule},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
pages = {108-121},
year = {2017},
issn = {2542-4351},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.07.005},
author = {Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi and Zack A.F. Bauer and Savannah C. Goodman and William E. Chapman and Mary A. Cameron and Cedric Bozonnat and Liat Chobadi and Hailey A. Clonts and Peter Enevoldsen and Jenny R. Erwin and Simone N. Fobi and Owen K. Goldstrom and Eleanor M. Hennessy and Jingyi Liu and Jonathan Lo and Clayton B. Meyer and Sean B. Morris and Kevin R. Moy and Patrick L. O'Neill and Ivalin Petkov and Stephanie Redfern and Robin Schucker and Michael A. Sontag and Jingfan Wang and Eric Weiner and Alexander S. Yachanin},
abstract = {Summary
We develop roadmaps to transform the all-purpose energy infrastructures (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, agriculture/forestry/fishing) of 139 countries to ones powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The roadmaps envision 80\% conversion by 2030 and 100\% by 2050. WWS not only replaces business-as-usual (BAU) power, but also reduces it ∼42.5\% because the work: energy ratio of WWS electricity exceeds that of combustion (23.0\%), WWS requires no mining, transporting, or processing of fuels (12.6\%), and WWS end-use efficiency is assumed to exceed that of BAU (6.9\%). Converting may create ∼24.3 million more permanent, full-time jobs than jobs lost. It may avoid ∼4.6 million/year premature air-pollution deaths today and ∼3.5 million/year in 2050; ∼$22.8 trillion/year (12.7 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 air-pollution costs; and ∼$28.5 trillion/year (15.8 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 climate costs. Transitioning should also stabilize energy prices because fuel costs are zero, reduce power disruption and increase access to energy by decentralizing power, and avoid 1.5°C global warming.}
}

@Article{Jerez2015,
author={Jerez, Sonia
and Tobin, Isabelle
and Vautard, Robert
and Mont{\'a}vez, Juan Pedro
and L{\'o}pez-Romero, Jose Mar{\'i}a
and Thais, Fran{\c{c}}oise
and Bartok, Blanka
and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing
and Colette, Augustin
and D{\'e}qu{\'e}, Michel
and Nikulin, Grigory
and Kotlarski, Sven
and van Meijgaard, Erik
and Teichmann, Claas
and Wild, Martin},
title={The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe},
journal={Nature Communications},
year={2015},
month={Dec},
day={11},
volume={6},
number={1},
pages={10014},
abstract={Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14{\%};+2{\%}), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.},
issn={2041-1723},
doi={10.1038/ncomms10014},
}

@Article{Jiao2022,
author={Jiao, Boyang
and Li, Qingxiang
and Sun, Wenbin
and Martin, Wild},
title={Uncertainties in the global and continental surface solar radiation variations: inter-comparison of in-situ observations, reanalyses, and model simulations},
journal={Climate Dynamics},
year={2022},
month={Oct},
day={01},
volume={59},
number={7},
pages={2499-2516},
abstract={Surface solar radiation (SSR) and energy balance are closely related to the Earth's climate, water cycle, atmospheric conditions, and thus the human habitat, and accurate tracking of the energy cycle is essential. However, a certain degree of uncertainty still exists in current studies of long-term SSR changes due to the lack of a state-of-the-art benchmark observational dataset. To understand this issue, we present a systematic comparison of SSR from in-situ observations, the Fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), and the The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project---Phase 6 (CMIP6) in this paper. Our results show that: (1) The reverse interpolated station SSR series based on the ERA5 and the CMIP6 multi-models ensemble (MME) reflects the observed SSR values at the local/station scale to a certain degree. Although the underestimation/overestimation varies slightly in different regions/stations, the overall Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are about 15{\%} and 21{\%}, respectively of the observations. (2) Both the ERA5 SSR and the CMIP6 MME roughly reflect the seasonal variability and the spatial distributions of the SSR's climatological means (1971--2000) from gridded in-situ observations. (3) The SSR from the ERA5 is more consistent with observations than the CMIP6 MME in the temporal variations, long-term trend, and the uncertainties at global and continental scales. The latter has insignificant fluctuations in interannual variability, consistent with the trend in-situ observations only from 1950 to 1990, but fails the significant test (at 5{\%} level) after that except for some regions. Therefore, developing a higher quality global long-term SSR benchmark climatic dataset with more complete coverage is still of great significance for optimizing surface energy balance estimates and studies of the impact of human activities on climate change.},
issn={1432-0894},
doi={10.1007/s00382-022-06222-3},
}

@article{JURASZ2020,
title = {A review on the complementarity of renewable energy sources: Concept, metrics, application and future research directions},
journal = {Solar Energy},
volume = {195},
pages = {703-724},
year = {2020},
issn = {0038-092X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2019.11.087},
author = {J. Jurasz and F.A. Canales and A. Kies and M. Guezgouz and A. Beluco},
keywords = {Non-dispatchable energy sources, Reliability, Weather-driven, Variability, Complementarity index},
abstract = {Global and regional trends indicate that energy demand will soon be covered by a widespread deployment of renewable energy sources. However, the weather and climate driven energy sources are characterized by a significant spatial and temporal variability. One of the commonly mentioned solutions to overcome the mismatch between demand and supply provided by renewable generation is a hybridization of two or more energy sources into a single power station (like wind-solar, solar-hydro or solar-wind-hydro). The operation of hybrid energy sources is based on the complementary nature of renewable sources. Considering the growing importance of such systems and increasing number of research activities in this area this paper presents a comprehensive review of studies which investigated, analyzed, quantified and utilized the effect of temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal complementarity between renewable energy sources. The review starts with a brief overview of available research papers, formulates detailed definition of major concepts, summarizes current research directions and ends with prospective future research activities. The review provides a chronological and spatial information with regard to the studies on the complementarity concept.}
}

@article{LAUER2017,
title = {Benchmarking CMIP5 models with a subset of ESA CCI Phase 2 data using the ESMValTool},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
volume = {203},
pages = {9-39},
year = {2017},
note = {Earth Observation of Essential Climate Variables},
issn = {0034-4257},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.007},
author = {Axel Lauer and Veronika Eyring and Mattia Righi and Michael Buchwitz and Pierre Defourny and Martin Evaldsson and Pierre Friedlingstein and Richard {de Jeu} and Gerrit {de Leeuw} and Alexander Loew and Christopher J. Merchant and Benjamin Müller and Thomas Popp and Maximilian Reuter and Stein Sandven and Daniel Senftleben and Martin Stengel and Michel {Van Roozendael} and Sabrina Wenzel and Ulrika Willén},
keywords = {ESA CCI, CMIP, Earth system models, Climate, Model evaluation, ESMValTool, Sea surface temperature, Sea ice, Clouds, Soil moisture, Land cover, Aerosols, Ozone, Greenhouse gases, CO2},
abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is now moving into its sixth phase and aims at a more routine evaluation of the models as soon as the model output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). To meet this goal the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the systematic evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP, has been developed and a first version (1.0) released as open source software in 2015. Here, an enhanced version of the ESMValTool is presented that exploits a subset of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) Phase 2 and this version is used to demonstrate the value of the data for model evaluation. This subset includes consistent, long-term time series of ECVs obtained from harmonized, reprocessed products from different satellite instruments for sea surface temperature, sea ice, cloud, soil moisture, land cover, aerosol, ozone, and greenhouse gases. The ESA CCI data allow extending the calculation of performance metrics as summary statistics for some variables and add an important alternative data set in other cases where observations are already available. The provision of uncertainty estimates on a per grid basis for the ESA CCI data sets is used in a new extended version of the Taylor diagram and provides important additional information for a more objective evaluation of the models. In our analysis we place a specific focus on the comparability of model and satellite data both in time and space. The ESA CCI data are well suited for an evaluation of results from global climate models across ESM compartments as well as an analysis of long-term trends, variability and change in the context of a changing climate. The enhanced version of the ESMValTool is released as open source software and ready to support routine model evaluation in CMIP6 and at individual modeling centers.}
}

@article{LIMA2019,
title = {The seasonal variability and trends for the surface solar irradiation in northeastern region of Brazil},
journal = {Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments},
volume = {35},
pages = {335-346},
year = {2019},
issn = {2213-1388},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2019.08.006},
author = {Francisco José Lopes de Lima and Fernando Ramos Martins and Rodrigo Santos Costa and André Rodrigues Gonçalves and Ana Paula Paes {dos Santos} and Enio Bueno Pereira},
keywords = {Incoming solar irradiation, Seasonal variability, Cluster analysis, Trend analysis, Northeastern Brazilian region},
abstract = {Earlier studies have demonstrated that the Northeastern Brazilian region (NEB) has the most abundant solar energy resource of the Brazilian territory due to its geographical location, and its environmental characteristics. However, the spatial and seasonal variability was little evaluated. This work investigated the surface solar irradiation variability and trends based on a statistical analysis of the ground data acquired in automated weather stations operated by the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology. A data quality control procedure was accomplished according to WMO criteria to avoid suspicious data. The results pointed out a remarkable variability in seasonal and annual scales. The cluster analysis provided five regional patterns presenting quite interesting temporal complementary regimes for the incoming solar irradiation. The surface solar irradiation achieves the highest values in the Southeastern area of NEB and the lowest in the Western area during the austral summer. The annual and seasonal trends of the surface solar irradiation were investigated using the Mann-Kendall method and the Sen technique. The surface solar irradiation in the Southeastern area of NEB is decreasing by 50 Wh/m2/year since 2008. On the other hand, it is increasing around 40 Wh/m2/year in the semi-arid area at the same timeframe.}
}

@article { Maraun2013,
      author = "Douglas Maraun",
      title = "Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the Inflation Issue",
      journal = "Journal of Climate",
      year = "2013",
      publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
      address = "Boston MA, USA",
      volume = "26",
      number = "6",
      doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00821.1",
      pages=      "2137 - 2143",
}

@article{MARTINS2008,
title = {Solar energy scenarios in Brazil, Part one: Resource assessment},
journal = {Energy Policy},
volume = {36},
number = {8},
pages = {2853-2864},
year = {2008},
issn = {0301-4215},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.014},
author = {F.R. Martins and E.B. Pereira and S.A.B. Silva and S.L. Abreu and Sergio Colle},
keywords = {Solar resource maps, Brazil, SWERA},
abstract = {The “Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment” (SWERA) project was an international project financed by GEF/UNEP, which aimed at providing a consistent and accessible database to foster the insertion of renewable energies on the energy matrix of developing countries. This paper presents the solar energy resource assessment generated during the SWERA project by using the radiative transfer model BRASIL-SR fed with satellite and climate data. The solar irradiation estimates were validated by comparing with the ground data acquired in several sites spread out the Brazilian territory. Maps on 10×10km2 spatial resolution were generated for global, diffuse and direct normal solar irradiation. Solar irradiation on a plane tilted by an angle equal to the local latitude was also generated at the same spatial resolution. Besides the solar resource maps, the annual and seasonal variability of solar energy resource was evaluated and discussed. By analyzing the Brazilian solar resource and variability maps, the great potential available for solar energy applications in Brazil is apparent, even in the semi-temperate climate in the southern region where the annual mean of solar irradiation is comparable to that estimated for the equatorial Amazonian region.}
}

@Article{Monerie2020,
author={Monerie, Paul-Arthur
and Wainwright, Caroline M.
and Sidibe, Moussa
and Akinsanola, Akintomide Afolayan},
title={Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations},
journal={Climate Dynamics},
year={2020},
month={Sep},
day={01},
volume={55},
number={5},
pages={1385-1401},
abstract={The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models. Uncertainties arise mainly because the models simulate different shifts in atmospheric circulation over West Africa in a warmer climate. We linked the changes in atmospheric circulation to the changes in Sea Surface Temperature, emphasising that the Northern hemispheric temperature gradient is primary to explain uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change. Sources of Sahel precipitation uncertainties are shown to be the same in the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) as in the previous generation of models (CMIP5).},
issn={1432-0894},
doi={10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0},
}

@article{Davis2023,
Author = {Neil N. Davis and Jake Badger and Andrea N. Hahmann and Brian O. Hansen and Niels G. Mortensen and Mark Kelly and Xiaoli G. Larsén and Bjarke T. Olsen and Rogier Floors and Gil Lizcano and Pau Casso and Oriol Lacave and Albert Bosch and Ides Bauwens and Oliver James Knight and Albertine Potter van Loon and Rachel Fox and Tigran Parvanyan and Søren Bo Krohn Hansen and Duncan Heathfield and Marko Onninen and Ray Drummond},
Title = {The Global Wind Atlas: A high-resolution dataset of climatologies and associated web-based application},
Journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
Volume = {104},
Number = {8},
Year = {2023},
Month = {August},
Pages = {E1507-E1525},
DOI = {10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0075.1},
}

@article{Nordhaus2019,
Author = {Nordhaus, William},
Title = {Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics},
Journal = {American Economic Review},
Volume = {109},
Number = {6},
Year = {2019},
Month = {June},
Pages = {1991-2014},
DOI = {10.1257/aer.109.6.1991},
}

@Article{Nowack2020,
author={Nowack, Peer
and Runge, Jakob
and Eyring, Veronika
and Haigh, Joanna D.},
title={Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections},
journal={Nature Communications},
year={2020},
month={Mar},
day={16},
volume={11},
number={1},
pages={1415},
abstract={Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections.},
issn={2041-1723},
doi={10.1038/s41467-020-15195-y},
}

@Article{ONeill2016,
AUTHOR = {O'Neill, B. C. and Tebaldi, C. and van Vuuren, D. P. and Eyring, V. and Friedlingstein, P. and Hurtt, G. and Knutti, R. and Kriegler, E. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lowe, J. and Meehl, G. A. and Moss, R. and Riahi, K. and Sanderson, B. M.},
TITLE = {The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6},
JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {2016},
NUMBER = {9},
PAGES = {3461--3482},
DOI = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016}
}

@article{Ortega2021,
author = {Ortega, Geusep and Arias, Paola A. and Villegas, Juan Camilo and Marquet, Pablo A. and Nobre, Paulo},
title = {Present-day and future climate over central and South America according to CMIP5/CMIP6 models},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
volume = {41},
number = {15},
pages = {6713-6735},
keywords = {biodiversity hotspots, central America, climate change, CMIP5, CMIP6, projections, South America},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7221},
eprint = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7221},
abstract = {Abstract In tropical regions, particularly in Central and South America (CSA), the projections of climate seasonality under climate change are still uncertain. This is especially true for ecologically-relevant variables such as precipitation and temperature. However, assessments of model-based projections of seasonal climate for this region are scarce. We analyzed the simulation of seasonal precipitation and air surface temperature in CSA and six sub-regions within from 49 models included in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 33 models from CMIP6. In general, continental patterns and seasonality of both variables are moderately well resembled, while most models show systematic biases over the oceans, producing unrealistic spatial patterns. To quantify how well CMIP5/CMIP6 models simulate these variables, we used Taylor diagrams with respect to TRMM for precipitation and ERA5 for temperature. Precipitation shows the largest spread among models. Conversely, temperature shows a better simulation. CMIP5/CMIP6 models exhibit a better performance simulating both variables during December–January–February and March–April–May than during the other seasons. This is partly due to the reduced model biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone during these two seasons. In general, biases are reduced in the CMIP6 models with respect to CMIP5. Regarding regional evaluations, precipitation patterns for Mesoamerica, Cerrado and Chaco regions are better reproduced compared to TRMM, while the annual cycles for the Andes hotspot, Central Chile and Guianas are not well simulated, mainly during their wet seasons. However, these biases are reduced in CMIP6 models. In regard to precipitation projections, models only agree over most of the regions with decreasing precipitation. Conversely, temperature exhibits a general consensus on persistent warming even during the historical period, with an average increase of 6°C by the end of the century, according to the CMIP6 models.},
year = {2021}
}

@article{PEREIRA2013,
title = {The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {49},
pages = {107-110},
year = {2013},
note = {Selected papers from World Renewable Energy Congress - XI},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.053},
author = {Enio B. Pereira and Fernando R. Martins and Marcelo P. Pes and Eliude I. {da Cruz Segundo} and André de A. Lyra},
keywords = {Wind potential, Wind energy, Climate changes, Wind scenarios},
abstract = {Brazil’s wind energy production has escalated up recently. However, the long-term wind projects do not include the yet unknown impacts of climate changes on wind power. This work is an assessment of these impacts by applying forecasts of a climate model and trend analysis over climatological time series from selected ground sites. Findings indicate a favourable scenario for wind power exploitation in Brazil on the long run.}
}

@article{Pielke2022,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf},
year = {2022},
month = {feb},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
volume = {17},
number = {2},
pages = {024027},
author = {Roger Pielke Jr and Matthew G Burgess and Justin Ritchie},
title = {Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
abstract = {Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C.}
}

@Article{Pongratz2021,
author={Pongratz, Julia
and Schwingshackl, Clemens
and Bultan, Selma
and Obermeier, Wolfgang
and Havermann, Felix
and Guo, Suqi},
title={Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging Topics},
journal={Current Climate Change Reports},
year={2021},
month={Dec},
day={01},
volume={7},
number={4},
pages={99-120},
abstract={As demand for food and fiber, but also for negative emissions, brings most of the Earth's land surface under management, we aim to consolidate the scientific progress of recent years on the climatic effects of global land use change, including land management, and related land cover changes (LULCC).},
issn={2198-6061},
doi={10.1007/s40641-021-00178-y},
}

@article { Rajczak2016,
      author = "Jan Rajczak and Sven Kotlarski and Christoph Schär",
      title = "Does Quantile Mapping of Simulated Precipitation Correct for Biases in Transition Probabilities and Spell Lengths?",
      journal = "Journal of Climate",
      year = "2016",
      publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
      address = "Boston MA, USA",
      volume = "29",
      number = "5",
      doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0162.1",
      pages=      "1605 - 1615",
      url = "https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/29/5/jcli-d-15-0162.1.xml"
}

@article{FERRAZDEANDRADESANTOS2020,
title = {Combining wind and solar energy sources: Potential for hybrid power generation in Brazil},
journal = {Utilities Policy},
volume = {67},
pages = {101084},
year = {2020},
issn = {0957-1787},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2020.101084},
author = {José Alexandre Ferraz de Andrade {Santos} and Pieter {de Jong} and Caiuby {Alves da Costa} and Ednildo Andrade Torres},
keywords = {Wind power, Solar photovoltaic power, Hybrid energy systems, Brazilian regulatory framework},
abstract = {Wind and solar energy have stood out in recent years because of the growth of global installed capacity. This work aims to present wind and solar photovoltaic energy development and its regulatory framework in Brazil, and demonstrate the potential for centralized hybrid generation. Official studies, research reports, and thematic maps were consulted, and two pilot hybrid plants were studied. Results indicate that there is great potential for centralized hybrid generation in the Brazilian Northeast region. However, there is a need for the regulatory framework to evolve to enable its development.}
}

@article{SANTOS2021,
title = {Climate change impact on the technical-economic potential for solar photovoltaic energy in the residential sector: a case study for Brazil},
journal = {Energy and Climate Change},
volume = {2},
pages = {100062},
year = {2021},
issn = {2666-2787},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100062},
author = {Alberto José Leandro Santos and André F.P. Lucena},
keywords = {Solar photovoltaic, Climate change, Residential sector, Net metering, Brazil},
abstract = {Climate change could affect solar photovoltaic power by altering climate variables, such as global horizontal irradiance, surface wind speed and surface air temperature. This study evaluates the potential for distributed solar photovoltaic power in the Brazilian residential sector under current climate and climate change scenarios. The applied methodology uses estimations for the number of residences country-wide and their available roof area, meteorological data, electricity tariffs, investment costs, financing conditions and climate projections to assess the technical and economic potential for solar photovoltaic power generation under current climate and 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 4.0°C Specific Warming Levels (SWL) scenarios. In the most aggressive climate change scenario, national technical and economic potentials would fall -0.84\% and -0.008\% compared to current climate, respectively. The South region would be the most affected, with reductions of -3.62\% and -0.05\% in this same scenario. Some municipalities in the Brazilian North and Northeast could even experience increases in solar PV power output under climate change scenarios, albeit at the cost of large impacts in other sectors not considered here (e.g. increased energy demand, impact on other renewable energy sources and price volatility induced by extreme weather events). Therefore, distributed solar photovoltaic potential in the Brazil is robust to climate change and can thus be regarded as an important source to conciliate climate change mitigation and adaptation.}
}

@article{Sianturi2020,
    author = {Sianturi, Yesi and Marjuki and Sartika, Kwarti},
    title = "{Evaluation of ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses to estimate solar irradiance using ground observations over Indonesia region}",
    journal = {AIP Conference Proceedings},
    volume = {2223},
    number = {1},
    pages = {020002},
    year = {2020},
    month = {04},
    abstract = "{This study examines the feasibility of using reanalyses datasets to estimate solar irradiance over the Indonesia region. Solar irradiance from two reanalyses, the ERA5 from ECMWF and MERRA2 from NASA's GMAO were evaluated using the quality-controlled global horizontal irradiance obtained from the ASRS network, for a one-year period. The evaluation is done on an hourly and monthly value basis. Statistical evaluation and data visualizations were used to evaluate both datasets. The biases under different levels of cloudiness were also assessed. The hourly solar irradiance estimated using the ERA5 reanalysis shows positive biases against the observed hourly solar irradiance, except in Bengkulu station (mean bias error ranges from -7 to 34 W/m2). On the other hand, lower estimates are shown by the MERRA2 reanalysis (mean bias error ranges from -40 to 1 W/m2). The evaluation over the monthly solar radiation also presents the same result; ERA5 overestimates the monthly solar radiation in most stations, whereas MERRA2 tends to underestimate the monthly solar radiation. The clearness index over Indonesia region varies from 0.1 - 0.7, which indicates the common cloudy condition over this area. On clear sky condition, or lower clearness index, the observed solar irradiance tends to be underestimated, whilst on cloudy days the estimates from both reanalyses tend to be higher than the observed ones. In general, the estimates from ERA5 show better agreement with the ground observations. The information about biases can be used to correct-bias the estimates. Cloud cover affects the biases of those reanalysis datasets and this finding should be kept in mind in further usage of the reanalysis dataset.}",
    issn = {0094-243X},
    doi = {10.1063/5.0000854},
    eprint = {https://pubs.aip.org/aip/acp/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0000854/14210022/020002\_1\_online.pdf},
}

@article{STAFFELL2016,
title = {Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {114},
pages = {1224-1239},
year = {2016},
issn = {0360-5442},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.068},
author = {Iain Staffell and Stefan Pfenninger},
keywords = {Wind power, Wind farm, Reanalysis, Capacity factor, Energy yield, Europe},
abstract = {Reanalysis models are rapidly gaining popularity for simulating wind power output due to their convenience and global coverage. However, they should only be relied upon once thoroughly proven. This paper reports the first international validation of reanalysis for wind energy, testing NASA's MERRA and MERRA-2 in 23 European countries. Both reanalyses suffer significant spatial bias, overestimating wind output by 50\% in northwest Europe and underestimating by 30\% in the Mediterranean. We derive national correction factors, and show that after calibration national hourly output can be modelled with R2 above 0.95. Our underlying data are made freely available to aid future research. We then assess Europe's wind resources with twenty-year simulations of the current and potential future fleets. Europe's current average capacity factor is 24.2\%, with countries ranging from 19.5\% (Germany) to 32.4\% (Britain). Capacity factors are rising due to improving technology and locations; for example, Britain's wind fleet is now 23\% more productive than in 2005. Based on the current planning pipeline, we estimate Europe's average capacity factor could increase by nearly a third to 31.3\%. Countries with large stakes in the North Sea will see significant gains, with Britain's average capacity factor rising to 39.4\% and Germany's to 29.1\%.}
}

@Article{Stern2016,
author={Stern, Paul C.
and Sovacool, Benjamin K.
and Dietz, Thomas},
title={Towards a science of climate and energy choices},
journal={Nature Climate Change},
year={2016},
month={Jun},
day={01},
volume={6},
number={6},
pages={547-555},
abstract={This Perspective introduces a special Collection titled Energy, Climate and Society---jointly produced by Nature Energy and Nature Climate Change---that focuseson the social science insights into the linked problems of energy sustainability and climate change.},
issn={1758-6798},
doi={10.1038/nclimate3027},
}

@article{SOLAUN2019,
title = {Climate change impacts on renewable energy generation. A review of quantitative projections},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
volume = {116},
pages = {109415},
year = {2019},
issn = {1364-0321},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109415},
author = {Kepa Solaun and Emilio Cerdá},
keywords = {Climate change, Climate change adaptation, Renewable energy, Energy economics},
abstract = {Research on climate change impacts on renewable energy is becoming increasingly relevant due to the vulnerability of the sector and to the continual development of methodologies and availability of data. Public and private decision-making needs specific research. However, many gaps still exist in certain geographical regions and technologies. Providing economic estimates with a value chain perspective are also missing from most papers. This paper addresses the most relevant studies that project quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on solar, wind, hydro and other renewable generation technologies. Summary tables of impacts and projections are provided so that researchers, governments and the private sector may have an accurate view of the state-of-the-art on this topic.}
}

@article{DESOUZANASCIMENTO2022,
title = {Offshore wind and solar complementarity in Brazil: A theoretical and technical potential assessment},
journal = {Energy Conversion and Management},
volume = {270},
pages = {116194},
year = {2022},
issn = {0196-8904},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.116194},
author = {Marcolino Matheus {de Souza Nascimento} and Milad Shadman and Corbiniano Silva and Luiz Paulo {de Freitas Assad} and Segen F. Estefen and Luiz Landau},
keywords = {Keywords, Offshore wind, Offshore solar, Complementarity, Reanalysis, Brazil},
abstract = {The onshore generation of wind and solar energy is a reality in Brazil. There are approximately 700 projects generating wind energy in the Northeast and South regions and 4000 generating solar energy distributed throughout the country. In addition, Brazil has an extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and a very diverse climate, which can contribute to offshore and complementary technologies. The concept of complementarity integrates technology and innovation studies, which are associated with the more efficient use of renewable resources through a better understanding of their intermittency and availability. This study aims to evaluate the complementarity of offshore wind and solar energy along the Brazilian coastline by assessing the theoretical and technical potential of the resources. Wind and solar radiation hourly data of the ERA5 reanalysis are used from 1990 to 2019. A series of technical and environmental restrictions and other uses of the ocean space is assumed to calculate the usable area. The IEA-15 MW wind turbines and crystalline silicon solar panels are considered to calculate annual energy production and capacity factor. The results show the annual and hourly complementarity of the offshore wind and solar energy sources. It is observed that, for instance, offshore solar complements offshore wind up to 40\% in the Northeast region within water depth up to 50 m. Additionally, it shows that the monthly energy production of a co-located offshore wind–solar farm in the Northeast region can reach up to 300\% more than the hydropower generation.}
}

@article { Taylor2012,
      author = "Karl E. Taylor and Ronald J. Stouffer and Gerald A. Meehl",
      title = "An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design",
      journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",
      year = "2012",
      publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
      address = "Boston MA, USA",
      volume = "93",
      number = "4",
      doi = "10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1",
      pages=      "485 - 498",
}

@article{Taylor2001,
author = {Taylor, Karl E.},
title = {Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
volume = {106},
number = {D7},
pages = {7183-7192},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JD900719},
abstract = {A diagram has been devised that can provide a concise statistical summary of how well patterns match each other in terms of their correlation, their root-mean-square difference, and the ratio of their variances. Although the form of this diagram is general, it is especially useful in evaluating complex models, such as those used to study geophysical phenomena. Examples are given showing that the diagram can be used to summarize the relative merits of a collection of different models or to track changes in performance of a model as it is modified. Methods are suggested for indicating on these diagrams the statistical significance of apparent differences and the degree to which observational uncertainty and unforced internal variability limit the expected agreement between model-simulated and observed behaviors. The geometric relationship between the statistics plotted on the diagram also provides some guidance for devising skill scores that appropriately weight among the various measures of pattern correspondence.},
year = {2001}
}

@article{URRACA2018,
title = {Evaluation of global horizontal irradiance estimates from ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 reanalyses using ground and satellite-based data},
journal = {Solar Energy},
volume = {164},
pages = {339-354},
year = {2018},
issn = {0038-092X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.02.059},
author = {Ruben Urraca and Thomas Huld and Ana Gracia-Amillo and Francisco Javier Martinez-de-Pison and Frank Kaspar and Andres Sanz-Garcia},
keywords = {Solar radiation, Global horizontal irradiance, Reanalysis products, Satellite-based products},
abstract = {This study examines the progress made by two new reanalyses in the estimation of surface irradiance: ERA5, the new global reanalysis from the ECMWF, and COSMO-REA6, the regional reanalysis from the DWD for Europe. Daily global horizontal irradiance data were evaluated with 41 BSRN stations worldwide, 294 stations in Europe, and two satellite-derived products (NSRDB and SARAH). ERA5 achieves a moderate positive bias worldwide and in Europe of +4.05 W/m2 and +4.54 W/m2 respectively, which entails a reduction in the average bias ranging from 50\% to 75\% compared to ERA-Interim and MERRA-2. This makes ERA5 comparable with satellite-derived products in terms of the mean bias in most inland stations, but ERA5 results degrade in coastal areas and mountains. The bias of ERA5 varies with the cloudiness, overestimating under cloudy conditions and slightly underestimating under clear-skies, which suggests a poor prediction of cloud patterns and leads to larger absolute errors than that of satellite-based products. In Europe, the regional COSMO-REA6 underestimates in most stations (MBE = −5.29 W/m2) showing the largest deviations under clear-sky conditions, which is most likely caused by the aerosol climatology used. Above 45°N the magnitude of the bias and absolute error of COSMO-REA6 are similar to ERA5 while it outperforms ERA5 in the coastal areas due to its high-resolution grid (6.2 km). We conclude that ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 have reduced the gap between reanalysis and satellite-based data, but further development is required in the prediction of clouds while the spatial grid of ERA5 (31 km) remains inadequate for places with high variability of surface irradiance (coasts and mountains). Satellite-based data should be still used when available, but having in mind their limitations, ERA5 is a valid alternative for situations in which satellite-based data are missing (polar regions and gaps in times series) while COSMO-REA6 complements ERA5 in Central and Northern Europe mitigating the limitations of ERA5 in coastal areas.}
}

@Article{Velloso2019,
author={Velloso, Maria Francisca Azeredo
and Martins, Fernando Ramos
and Pereira, Enio Bueno},
title={Case study for hybrid power generation combining hydro- and photovoltaic energy resources in the Brazilian semiarid region},
journal={Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy},
year={2019},
month={Jul},
day={01},
volume={21},
number={5},
pages={941-952},
abstract={Hydropower is currently the primary energy resource to service the Brazilian electricity sector. However, the dry seasons in the Brazilian semiarid region have become longer due to climate variability, and they have affected the operation of hydropower plants during the last decade. Brazil has a growing energy demand, and energy mix diversification is essential to meet the power capacity required to support sustainable development. Investments in photovoltaic power plants are already a robust strategy to foster a new cycle of socioeconomic development based on a low-carbon economy. Hybrid power generation using hydro- and solar energy resources can be an alternative source due to the seasonal complementarity between them in the Brazilian semiarid region. During the dry periods, the photovoltaic power plant can replace hydropower generation. The present study aimed to evaluate the contribution of a solar photovoltaic plant to increase power generation in the Sobradinho hydropower plant operating in the S{\~a}o Francisco River, the most important water resource in the Brazilian semiarid region. The results showed that the PV power plant contributes to saving water for other multiple usages and avoids emissions of greenhouse gases by thermal power plants in long periods of intense drought. According to the simulation results for the 2013--2015 period, the PV plant would add around 8350 GWh to the actual power generated in Sobradinho using an area smaller than 0.5{\%} of its water reservoir surface. In addition, hybrid power generation would avoid emissions around 27.106 t CO2 released into the atmosphere by thermal power plants using fossil fuels during 3 years.},
issn={1618-9558},
doi={10.1007/s10098-019-01685-1},
}

@article{VIVIESCAS2019,
title = {Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
volume = {113},
pages = {109232},
year = {2019},
issn = {1364-0321},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.039},
author = {Cindy Viviescas and Lucas Lima and Fabio A. Diuana and Eveline Vasquez and Camila Ludovique and Gabriela N. Silva and Vanessa Huback and Leticia Magalar and Alexandre Szklo and André F.P. Lucena and Roberto Schaeffer and Juan Roberto Paredes},
keywords = {Renewable energy complementarity, Variability indices, Climate change impacts, Hydroelectric power resources, Variable renewable energy resources},
abstract = {This work evaluates the potential contribution of renewable energy to energy security in Latin America (LA) in the short and long terms. Two main approaches are used. The first assesses the seasonality and variability of renewable energy resources in LA, as well as their possible complementarities. Variability indices are calculated to assess patterns of wind and solar power resources and a statistical analysis evaluates complementarities between hotspots in the region. The second determines possible impacts on the future long-term wind and solar resource complementarities due to climate change for those regions where complementarity was previously identified. For this, results of two General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used. Results show a higher variability for wind power when compared to solar power generation resources both on an hourly and monthly scales. Results also indicate that Brazil can play an important role regarding renewable energy integration in LA, since the country has the strongest capacity to complement and to be complemented by other LA countries. As for the analysis on climate change impacts, results indicate a strong negative impact on the complementarities in the 2071-2100 period, especially for RCP 8.5.}
}

@article{WILD2015,
title = {Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems},
journal = {Solar Energy},
volume = {116},
pages = {12-24},
year = {2015},
issn = {0038-092X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.039},
author = {Martin Wild and Doris Folini and Florian Henschel and Natalie Fischer and Björn Müller},
keywords = {Solar radiation changes, Global dimming and brightening, Climate change and model projections, Solar resource assessment, Future PV system energy yields},
abstract = {Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar energy systems, the amount of solar radiation (sunlight) incident on the Earth’s surface is assumed to be constant over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering the past decades confirm long-term changes in this quantity. Here we examine how the latest generation of climate models used for the 5th IPCC report projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. For this purpose, projections up to the mid 21st century from 39 state of the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analysed globally and for selected key regions with major solar power production capacity. The large model ensemble allows to assess the degree of consistency of their projections. Models are largely consistent in the sign of the projected changes in solar radiation under cloud-free conditions as well as surface temperatures over most of the globe, while still reasonably consistent over a considerable part of the globe in the sign of changes in cloudiness and associated changes in solar radiation. A first order estimate of the impact of solar radiation and temperature changes on energy yields of PV systems under the RPC8.5 scenario indicates statistically significant decreases in PV outputs in large parts of the world, but notable exceptions with positive trends in large parts of Europe, South-East of North America and the South-East of China. Projected changes between 2006 and 2049 under the RCP8.5 scenario overall are on the order of 1\%/decade for horizontal planes, but may be larger for tilted or tracked planes as well as on shorter (decadal) timescales.}
}

@article{Zelinka2020,
author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Myers, Timothy A. and McCoy, Daniel T. and Po-Chedley, Stephen and Caldwell, Peter M. and Ceppi, Paulo and Klein, Stephen A. and Taylor, Karl E.},
title = {Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {47},
number = {1},
pages = {e2019GL085782},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019GL085782},
note = {e2019GL085782 10.1029/2019GL085782},
abstract = {Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.},
year = {2020}
}

@article{ZULUAGA2022,
title = {The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {193},
pages = {1019-1031},
year = {2022},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.029},
author = {Cristian Felipe Zuluaga and Alvaro Avila-Diaz and Flavio B. Justino and Fernando Ramos Martins and Wilmar L. Ceron},
keywords = {CMIP6 models, Global warming, Solar resource, Shared socioeconomic pathways, Global dimming, Brightening},
abstract = {Photovoltaic power potential (PPV) is part of the strategies in Brazil to satisfy the population's energy demand and contribute to reduction of global warming in the climate change context. This study assesses climate change's impact on PPV using a set of 47 state of the art Earth System Models from CMIP6 under two climate change (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and PPV are calculated for the near-term (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100) future, concerning the historical period (1981–2010). For the future, the sign of climate change is consistent in both scenarios, but with more intense magnitudes in the SSP5-8.5 for the end-century, and indicate a brightening in North region and warming in the whole country. For the near-term future, PPV projects the maximum increases (≈3\%) in the North under both scenarios. The most notable decreases in PPV are noticed by the end-century (−5\%) over the country, except for the extreme north. The sensitivity to the increase in temperature of current PPV systems' technology would not allow increases in the yield of PPV, canceling the positive effect of the brightening.}
}

@BOOK{Atlas2017,
author={Enio Bueno {Pereira} and Fernando Ramos {Martins} and Rodrigo Santos {Costa} and André Rodrigues {Gonçalves} and Francisco José Lopes de {Lima} and Ricardo Rüther and Samuel Luna de {Abreu} and Gerson Máximo {Tiepolo}},
title={Brazilian Atlas for Solar Energy},
publisher={Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Brazil},
year={2017},
Edition = {2nd, edition},
volume={1},
doi = "10.34024/978851700089"
}


@BOOK{Eolico2001,
author={O. A. C. Amarante and M. Brower and J. Zack and A. L. Sá},
title={Atlas do Potencial Eólico Brasileiro},
publisher={Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Elétrica, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil},
year={2017},
Edition = {2nd, edition},
volume={1},
doi = "10.34024/978851700089"
}

@techreport{Navarro-Racines2015,
author = {C. E. {Navarro-Racines} and J. E. {Tarapues-Montenegro} and J. A. {Ramírez-Villegas}},
title = {Bias-correction in the CCAFS-Climate Portal: A description of methodologies. Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) Research Area},
institution = {International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colômbia},
year = {2000},
url = {https://ccafs-climate.org/downloads/docs/BC_methods_explaining_v2.pdf}
}

@BOOK{MCTI-Emissoes2022,
author={MCTI},
title={ESTIMATIVAS ANUAIS DE EMISSÕES DE GASES DE EFEITO ESTUFA NO BRASIL},
publisher={Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações, Brazil},
year={2022},
Edition = {6th, edition},
volume={1}
}

@techreport{IRENA-BrazilReport2022,
author = {IRENA},
title = {Brazil Energy Profile},
institution = {International Renewable Energy Agency},
year = {2022},
url = {https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Statistics/Statistical_Profiles/South\%20America/Brazil_South\%20America_RE_SP.pdf}
}

@BOOK{EPE-BEN2023,
author = {Empresa de Pesquisas Energéticas},
title = {Brazilian Energy Balance – Sumary Report 2023 (Reference Year 2022)},
publisher = {Empresa de Pesquisas Energéticas, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil},
year = {2023},
url = {https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-748/topico-681/BEN_S\%C3\%ADntese_2023_EN.pdf}
}

@BOOK{EPE-hibridas2019,
author = {Empresa de Pesquisas Energéticas},
title = {Usinas híbridas no contexto do planejamento energético. Nota Técnica EPE-DEE-NT029/2019-r0.},
publisher = {Empresa de Pesquisas Energéticas, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil},
year = {2019},
url = {https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-386/EPE_DEE_NT_029_2019_r0_%20Usinas%20h%C3%ADbridas.pdf}
}

@techreport{CAIT2022,
author = {Climate Watch},
title = {(CAIT): Country Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data},
institution = {World Resources Institute, USA},
year = {2022},
url = {https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions}
}

@techreport{ANEEL954-2021,
author = {ANEEL},
title = {Resolução Normativa ANEEL n. 954/2021},
institution = {Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil},
year = {2021},
url = {https://in.gov.br/en/web/dou/-/resolucao-normativa-aneel-n-954-de-30-de-novembro-de-2021-364715864}
}

@techreport{ANEEL-SIGA-2023,
author = {ANEEL},
title = {Sistema de Informações de Geração da ANEEL},
institution = {Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, Ministério de Minas e Energia, Brazil},
year = {2023},
url = {https://dadosabertos.aneel.gov.br/dataset/siga-sistema-de-informacoes-de-geracao-da-aneel}
}

@techreport{ABSOLAR2023,
author = {ANEEL},
title = {Panorama da energia solar fotovoltaica no Brasil e no mundo.},
institution = {Associação Brasileira de Energia Solar Fotovoltaica, Brazil},
year = {2023},
url = {https://www.absolar.org.br/mercado/infografico/}
}



