Forecasting Daily Arrivals and Peak Occupancy in a Combined Emergency Department

Jalmari Tuominen (*1), Antti Roine (2), Taavi Saviauk (3), Anssi Seppo (3), Miika Pihlaja (3), Jani Ovaska (4), Satu-Liisa Pauniaho (4), Niku Oksala (1,5)

(1) Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland

(2) Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere Finland

(3) Unitary Healthcare Ltd, Tampere, Finland

(4) Emergency Division of Pirkanmaa Hospital District, Tampere University Hospital and Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.

(5) Centre for Vascular Surgery and Interventional Radiology, Tampere University Hospital, Tampere Finland

*Corresponding author. jalmari.tuominen@tuni.fi, +358 505 961192, Arvo Ylpön katu 34, 33520 Tampere

Supplementary materials

Table of contents

  1. Model specifications
    • $(S)ARIMA(X)$
    • $GLM$
    • $Prophet$
  2. Dependencies
In [23]:
import pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path
import joblib

Model specifications

$(S)ARIMA(X)$

Independent variables:

  • $X1-X7$ weekdays
  • $X8-X19$ months
In [24]:
models = []

for i in list(Path("./results/").glob("*sarima*.pkl")):
    model = joblib.load(i)
    target, model_name, features = i.stem.upper().split(":")
    print(f"""
Target variable : {target}
Model name: {model_name}
Feature set: {features}
    """)
    print(model.summary())
    print("\n \n \n")
Target variable : DPO
Model name: SARIMA
Feature set: NONE
    
                                       SARIMAX Results                                        
==============================================================================================
Dep. Variable:                                      y   No. Observations:                 1480
Model:             SARIMAX(2, 1, 1)x(1, 0, [1, 2], 7)   Log Likelihood               -5562.512
Date:                                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   AIC                          11139.024
Time:                                        14:38:02   BIC                          11176.118
Sample:                                             0   HQIC                         11152.853
                                               - 1480                                         
Covariance Type:                                  opg                                         
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1          0.0959      0.024      3.929      0.000       0.048       0.144
ar.L2          0.0254      0.023      1.115      0.265      -0.019       0.070
ma.L1         -0.8405      0.017    -50.893      0.000      -0.873      -0.808
ar.S.L7        0.9942      0.004    278.438      0.000       0.987       1.001
ma.S.L7       -0.8685      0.025    -35.421      0.000      -0.917      -0.820
ma.S.L14      -0.0709      0.024     -2.947      0.003      -0.118      -0.024
sigma2       107.6419      2.556     42.113      0.000     102.632     112.652
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   0.00   Jarque-Bera (JB):               763.96
Prob(Q):                              0.96   Prob(JB):                         0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H):               2.13   Skew:                             0.49
Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.00   Kurtosis:                         6.38
===================================================================================

Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).

 
 


Target variable : DPO
Model name: SARIMA
Feature set: CALVARS
    
                                       SARIMAX Results                                        
==============================================================================================
Dep. Variable:                                      y   No. Observations:                 1480
Model:             SARIMAX(2, 1, 1)x(1, 0, [1, 2], 7)   Log Likelihood               -5539.606
Date:                                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   AIC                          11131.212
Time:                                        14:38:02   BIC                          11268.989
Sample:                                             0   HQIC                         11182.575
                                               - 1480                                         
Covariance Type:                                  opg                                         
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
x1             5.2063   7156.438      0.001      0.999    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x2             6.3831   7156.243      0.001      0.999    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x3            -4.6173   7156.632     -0.001      0.999    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x4            -8.1894   7156.517     -0.001      0.999    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x5             0.2047   7156.569   2.86e-05      1.000    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x6             0.8065   7156.533      0.000      1.000    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x7             0.2063   7156.555   2.88e-05      1.000    -1.4e+04     1.4e+04
x8            -9.8444    983.825     -0.010      0.992   -1938.106    1918.418
x9             4.6452    983.701      0.005      0.996   -1923.373    1932.663
x10            3.8620    983.767      0.004      0.997   -1924.286    1932.010
x11           -4.0468    983.779     -0.004      0.997   -1932.219    1924.125
x12           -1.8801    983.750     -0.002      0.998   -1929.996    1926.235
x13            4.7341    983.769      0.005      0.996   -1923.417    1932.885
x14            5.3250    983.809      0.005      0.996   -1922.905    1933.555
x15           -5.3897    983.800     -0.005      0.996   -1933.602    1922.823
x16          -13.5254    983.815     -0.014      0.989   -1941.767    1914.716
x17            2.3072    983.734      0.002      0.998   -1925.776    1930.390
x18            6.6913    983.710      0.007      0.995   -1921.344    1934.727
x19            7.1216    983.706      0.007      0.994   -1920.906    1935.149
ar.L1          0.0941      0.026      3.570      0.000       0.042       0.146
ar.L2          0.0262      0.025      1.063      0.288      -0.022       0.075
ma.L1         -0.8609      0.016    -52.700      0.000      -0.893      -0.829
ar.S.L7        0.9700      0.015     62.840      0.000       0.940       1.000
ma.S.L7       -0.8331      0.029    -28.312      0.000      -0.891      -0.775
ma.S.L14      -0.0812      0.025     -3.241      0.001      -0.130      -0.032
sigma2       104.7174      2.995     34.963      0.000      98.847     110.588
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   0.00   Jarque-Bera (JB):               226.94
Prob(Q):                              0.96   Prob(JB):                         0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H):               2.65   Skew:                             0.15
Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.00   Kurtosis:                         4.90
===================================================================================

Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
[2] Covariance matrix is singular or near-singular, with condition number 3.78e+18. Standard errors may be unstable.

 
 


Target variable : TDA
Model name: SARIMA
Feature set: CALVARS
    
                               SARIMAX Results                                
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   No. Observations:                 1480
Model:               SARIMAX(1, 0, 1)   Log Likelihood               -6533.697
Date:                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   AIC                          13111.394
Time:                        14:38:02   BIC                          13227.989
Sample:                             0   HQIC                         13154.859
                               - 1480                                         
Covariance Type:                  opg                                         
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
x1           169.2070      1.616    104.734      0.000     166.041     172.374
x2           173.7345      1.525    113.927      0.000     170.746     176.723
x3           179.5748      1.528    117.486      0.000     176.579     182.571
x4           173.4969      1.365    127.082      0.000     170.821     176.173
x5           150.3921      1.685     89.228      0.000     147.089     153.696
x6           154.3008      1.548     99.672      0.000     151.267     157.335
x7           153.3391      1.514    101.257      0.000     150.371     156.307
x8            94.0609      4.110     22.884      0.000      86.005     102.117
x9            93.6065      4.117     22.737      0.000      85.537     101.676
x10           97.6429      3.652     26.734      0.000      90.484     104.802
x11          100.6548      3.397     29.628      0.000      93.996     107.313
x12           98.2829      2.959     33.219      0.000      92.484     104.082
x13           99.7160      4.098     24.331      0.000      91.684     107.748
x14          100.0284      3.399     29.430      0.000      93.367     106.690
x15          101.1497      3.978     25.426      0.000      93.352     108.947
x16           99.2426      4.128     24.043      0.000      91.152     107.333
x17           88.6450      3.993     22.202      0.000      80.820      96.470
x18           87.3396      4.318     20.225      0.000      78.876      95.804
x19           93.6782      4.138     22.637      0.000      85.567     101.789
ar.L1          0.8928      0.022     40.255      0.000       0.849       0.936
ma.L1         -0.6893      0.036    -18.930      0.000      -0.761      -0.618
sigma2       399.9821     14.328     27.917      0.000     371.901     428.064
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   1.09   Jarque-Bera (JB):                12.46
Prob(Q):                              0.30   Prob(JB):                         0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H):               1.03   Skew:                             0.18
Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.71   Kurtosis:                         3.28
===================================================================================

Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
[2] Covariance matrix is singular or near-singular, with condition number 1.13e+17. Standard errors may be unstable.

 
 


Target variable : TDA
Model name: SARIMA
Feature set: NONE
    
                               SARIMAX Results                                
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   No. Observations:                 1480
Model:               SARIMAX(5, 0, 4)   Log Likelihood               -6588.170
Date:                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   AIC                          13198.340
Time:                        14:38:02   BIC                          13256.638
Sample:                             0   HQIC                         13220.072
                               - 1480                                         
Covariance Type:                  opg                                         
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
intercept    162.8397     25.372      6.418      0.000     113.111     212.568
ar.L1          0.6869      0.100      6.863      0.000       0.491       0.883
ar.L2          0.2222      0.097      2.301      0.021       0.033       0.411
ar.L3         -1.0036      0.087    -11.502      0.000      -1.175      -0.833
ar.L4          0.2649      0.117      2.265      0.024       0.036       0.494
ar.L5          0.2066      0.041      4.983      0.000       0.125       0.288
ma.L1         -0.4592      0.104     -4.403      0.000      -0.664      -0.255
ma.L2         -0.1291      0.072     -1.792      0.073      -0.270       0.012
ma.L3          0.9343      0.073     12.817      0.000       0.791       1.077
ma.L4         -0.1291      0.105     -1.232      0.218      -0.334       0.076
sigma2       418.2131     14.804     28.250      0.000     389.197     447.229
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   0.12   Jarque-Bera (JB):                 8.20
Prob(Q):                              0.72   Prob(JB):                         0.02
Heteroskedasticity (H):               1.11   Skew:                             0.15
Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.25   Kurtosis:                         3.19
===================================================================================

Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).

 
 

$GLM$

In [47]:
models = []

for i in list(Path("./results/").glob("*glm*.pkl")):
    model = joblib.load(i)
    target, model_name, features = i.stem.upper().split(":")
    print(
        f"""
Target variable : {target}
Model name: {model_name}
Feature set: {features}
    """)
    print(model.summary())
    print("\n \n \n")
Target variable : TDA
Model name: GLM
Feature set: CALVARS
    
                 Generalized Linear Model Regression Results                  
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                    tda   No. Observations:                  976
Model:                            GLM   Df Residuals:                      958
Model Family:                 Poisson   Df Model:                           17
Link Function:                    log   Scale:                          1.0000
Method:                          IRLS   Log-Likelihood:                -4382.9
Date:                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   Deviance:                       1534.4
Time:                        14:40:35   Pearson chi2:                 1.54e+03
No. Iterations:                     4                                         
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         
===========================================================================================
                              coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intercept                   5.5650      0.009    596.188      0.000       5.547       5.583
C(weekday)[T.Monday]        0.0248      0.007      3.411      0.001       0.011       0.039
C(weekday)[T.Saturday]      0.0423      0.007      5.855      0.000       0.028       0.056
C(weekday)[T.Sunday]        0.0253      0.007      3.491      0.000       0.011       0.040
C(weekday)[T.Thursday]     -0.0772      0.007    -10.348      0.000      -0.092      -0.063
C(weekday)[T.Tuesday]      -0.0644      0.007     -8.659      0.000      -0.079      -0.050
C(weekday)[T.Wednesday]    -0.0694      0.007     -9.318      0.000      -0.084      -0.055
C(month)[T.August]          0.0194      0.010      1.887      0.059      -0.001       0.040
C(month)[T.December]        0.0692      0.010      6.795      0.000       0.049       0.089
C(month)[T.February]        0.0437      0.011      3.834      0.000       0.021       0.066
C(month)[T.January]         0.0305      0.011      2.720      0.007       0.009       0.052
C(month)[T.July]            0.0281      0.010      2.735      0.006       0.008       0.048
C(month)[T.June]            0.0327      0.010      3.170      0.002       0.012       0.053
C(month)[T.March]           0.0252      0.011      2.244      0.025       0.003       0.047
C(month)[T.May]             0.0380      0.010      3.708      0.000       0.018       0.058
C(month)[T.November]        0.0024      0.010      0.228      0.819      -0.018       0.023
C(month)[T.October]        -0.0047      0.010     -0.459      0.646      -0.025       0.015
C(month)[T.September]       0.0205      0.010      1.979      0.048       0.000       0.041
===========================================================================================

 
 


Target variable : DPO
Model name: GLM
Feature set: CALVARS
    
                 Generalized Linear Model Regression Results                  
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:                    dpo   No. Observations:                  579
Model:                            GLM   Df Residuals:                      561
Model Family:                 Poisson   Df Model:                           17
Link Function:                    log   Scale:                          1.0000
Method:                          IRLS   Log-Likelihood:                -2213.0
Date:                Wed, 06 Jan 2021   Deviance:                       853.09
Time:                        14:40:35   Pearson chi2:                     852.
No. Iterations:                     4                                         
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         
===========================================================================================
                              coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Intercept                   4.4090      0.024    184.409      0.000       4.362       4.456
C(weekday)[T.Monday]        0.0335      0.017      1.992      0.046       0.001       0.066
C(weekday)[T.Saturday]     -0.2097      0.018    -11.763      0.000      -0.245      -0.175
C(weekday)[T.Sunday]       -0.2638      0.018    -14.567      0.000      -0.299      -0.228
C(weekday)[T.Thursday]     -0.0924      0.017     -5.350      0.000      -0.126      -0.059
C(weekday)[T.Tuesday]      -0.0686      0.017     -3.978      0.000      -0.102      -0.035
C(weekday)[T.Wednesday]    -0.0758      0.017     -4.401      0.000      -0.110      -0.042
C(month)[T.August]         -0.0163      0.026     -0.629      0.529      -0.067       0.034
C(month)[T.December]        0.1135      0.025      4.480      0.000       0.064       0.163
C(month)[T.February]        0.0935      0.030      3.147      0.002       0.035       0.152
C(month)[T.January]         0.0524      0.029      1.788      0.074      -0.005       0.110
C(month)[T.July]           -0.0201      0.026     -0.778      0.437      -0.071       0.031
C(month)[T.June]           -0.0329      0.026     -1.262      0.207      -0.084       0.018
C(month)[T.March]           0.0903      0.029      3.114      0.002       0.033       0.147
C(month)[T.May]             0.0017      0.030      0.056      0.956      -0.056       0.060
C(month)[T.November]        0.0225      0.026      0.872      0.383      -0.028       0.073
C(month)[T.October]         0.0529      0.026      2.069      0.039       0.003       0.103
C(month)[T.September]       0.0312      0.026      1.209      0.227      -0.019       0.082
===========================================================================================

 
 

$PROPHET$

In [37]:
models = []

for i in list(Path("./results/").glob("*prophet*.pkl")):
    model = joblib.load(i)
    target, model_name, features = i.stem.upper().split(":")
    print(
        f"""
        Target variable : {target}
        Model name: {model_name}
        Feature set: {features}
    """)
    print(model.params)
    print("\n \n \n")
        Target variable : DPO
        Model name: PROPHET
        Feature set: NONE
    
{'k': array([[-0.03641323]]), 'm': array([[0.71485214]]), 'delta': array([[-4.69016236e-09, -3.87266768e-09, -1.71370298e-08,
        -6.06375008e-09,  3.50205096e-09, -8.11007850e-09,
        -3.68794097e-09,  2.66729923e-10,  2.32835579e-10,
         2.87814268e-09, -4.50785622e-09, -1.98734354e-10,
         2.27866760e-09, -3.42271879e-09, -3.87970698e-09,
        -4.12532554e-09, -1.00669608e-08,  4.36934568e-09,
         6.03926537e-09, -4.82558365e-07, -7.33165702e-09,
        -5.65244196e-10, -1.84960969e-09,  5.06413027e-10,
         7.49635150e-10]]), 'sigma_obs': array([[0.09951791]]), 'beta': array([[ 0.02930224, -0.01499343,  0.02098915,  0.01181057, -0.00394915,
         0.00405219, -0.01871631, -0.00924216, -0.01661922,  0.0155221 ,
        -0.00536672, -0.00245936, -0.00333017,  0.0229835 , -0.00683602,
        -0.01892154, -0.00900497,  0.00469705,  0.01115159,  0.00221738,
        -0.01632162,  0.02022643,  0.06871486,  0.00814305, -0.03123156,
        -0.01940975]]), 'trend': array([[0.71485214, 0.7147521 , 0.71465207, 0.71455203, 0.71445199,
        0.71435196, 0.71425192, 0.71415188, 0.71405185, 0.71395181,
        0.71385177, 0.71375174, 0.7136517 , 0.71355167, 0.71345163,
        0.71335159, 0.71325156, 0.71315152, 0.71305148, 0.71295145,
        0.71285141, 0.71275137, 0.71265134, 0.7125513 , 0.71245127,
        0.71235123, 0.71225119, 0.71215116, 0.71205112, 0.71195108,
        0.71185105, 0.71175101, 0.71165097, 0.71155094, 0.7114509 ,
        0.71135087, 0.71125083, 0.71115079, 0.71105076, 0.71095072,
        0.71085068, 0.71075065, 0.71065061, 0.71055057, 0.71045054,
        0.7103505 , 0.71025046, 0.71015043, 0.71005039, 0.70995036,
        0.70985032, 0.70975028, 0.70965025, 0.70955021, 0.70945017,
        0.70935014, 0.7092501 , 0.70915006, 0.70905003, 0.70894999,
        0.70884995, 0.70874992, 0.70864988, 0.70854985, 0.70844981,
        0.70834977, 0.70824974, 0.7081497 , 0.70804966, 0.70794963,
        0.70784959, 0.70774955, 0.70764952, 0.70754948, 0.70744944,
        0.70734941, 0.70724937, 0.70714934, 0.7070493 , 0.70694926,
        0.70684923, 0.70674919, 0.70664915, 0.70654912, 0.70644908,
        0.70634904, 0.70624901, 0.70614897, 0.70604893, 0.7059489 ,
        0.70584886, 0.70574883, 0.70564879, 0.70554875, 0.70544872,
        0.70534868, 0.70524864, 0.70514861, 0.70504857, 0.70494853,
        0.7048485 , 0.70474846, 0.70464842, 0.70454839, 0.70444835,
        0.70434831, 0.70424828, 0.70414824, 0.70404821, 0.70394817,
        0.70384813, 0.7037481 , 0.70364806, 0.70354802, 0.70344799,
        0.70334795, 0.70324791, 0.70314788, 0.70304784, 0.7029478 ,
        0.70284777, 0.70274773, 0.7026477 , 0.70254766, 0.70244762,
        0.70234759, 0.70224755, 0.70214751, 0.70204748, 0.70194744,
        0.7018474 , 0.70174737, 0.70164733, 0.70154729, 0.70144726,
        0.70134722, 0.70124718, 0.70114715, 0.70104711, 0.70094708,
        0.70084704, 0.700747  , 0.70064697, 0.70054693, 0.70044689,
        0.70034686, 0.70024682, 0.70014678, 0.70004675, 0.69994671,
        0.69984667, 0.69974664, 0.6996466 , 0.69954656, 0.69944653,
        0.69934649, 0.69924646, 0.69914642, 0.69904638, 0.69894635,
        0.69884631, 0.69874627, 0.69864624, 0.6985462 , 0.69844616,
        0.69834613, 0.69824609, 0.69814605, 0.69804602, 0.69794598,
        0.69784595, 0.69774591, 0.69764587, 0.69754584, 0.6974458 ,
        0.69734576, 0.69724573, 0.69714569, 0.69704565, 0.69694562,
        0.69684558, 0.69674554, 0.69664551, 0.69654547, 0.69644543,
        0.6963454 , 0.69624536, 0.69614532, 0.69604529, 0.69594525,
        0.69584522, 0.69574518, 0.69564514, 0.69554511, 0.69544507,
        0.69534503, 0.695245  , 0.69514496, 0.69504492, 0.69494489,
        0.69484485, 0.69474481, 0.69464478, 0.69454474, 0.6944447 ,
        0.69434467, 0.69424463, 0.69414459, 0.69404456, 0.69394452,
        0.69384449, 0.69374445, 0.69364441, 0.69354438, 0.69344434,
        0.6933443 , 0.69324427, 0.69314423, 0.69304419, 0.69294416,
        0.69284412, 0.69274408, 0.69264405, 0.69254401, 0.69244397,
        0.69234394, 0.6922439 , 0.69214386, 0.69204383, 0.69194379,
        0.69184376, 0.69174372, 0.69164368, 0.69154365, 0.69144361,
        0.69134357, 0.69124353, 0.69114349, 0.69104346, 0.69094342,
        0.69084338, 0.69074334, 0.69064331, 0.69054327, 0.69044323,
        0.69034319, 0.69024315, 0.69014312, 0.69004308, 0.68994304,
        0.689843  , 0.68974297, 0.68964293, 0.68954289, 0.68944285,
        0.68934281, 0.68924278, 0.68914274, 0.6890427 , 0.68894266,
        0.68884262, 0.68874259, 0.68864255, 0.68854251, 0.68844247,
        0.68834244, 0.6882424 , 0.68814236, 0.68804232, 0.68794228,
        0.68784225, 0.68774221, 0.68764217, 0.68754213, 0.6874421 ,
        0.68734206, 0.68724202, 0.68714198, 0.68704194, 0.68694191,
        0.68684187, 0.68674183, 0.68664179, 0.68654175, 0.68644172,
        0.68634168, 0.68624164, 0.6861416 , 0.68604157, 0.68594153,
        0.68584149, 0.68574145, 0.68564141, 0.68554138, 0.68544134,
        0.6853413 , 0.68524126, 0.68514122, 0.68504119, 0.68494115,
        0.68484111, 0.68474107, 0.68464104, 0.684541  , 0.68444096,
        0.68434092, 0.68424088, 0.68414085, 0.68404081, 0.68394077,
        0.68384073, 0.6837407 , 0.68364066, 0.68354062, 0.68344058,
        0.68334054, 0.68324051, 0.68314047, 0.68304043, 0.68294039,
        0.68284035, 0.68274032, 0.68264028, 0.68254024, 0.6824402 ,
        0.68234017, 0.68224013, 0.68214009, 0.68204005, 0.68194001,
        0.68183998, 0.68173994, 0.6816399 , 0.68153986, 0.68143983,
        0.68133979, 0.68123975, 0.68113971, 0.68103967, 0.68093964,
        0.6808396 , 0.68073956, 0.68063952, 0.68053948, 0.68043945,
        0.68033941, 0.68023937, 0.68013933, 0.6800393 , 0.67993926,
        0.67983922, 0.67973918, 0.67963914, 0.67953911, 0.67943907,
        0.67933903, 0.67923899, 0.67913895, 0.67903892, 0.67893888,
        0.67883884, 0.6787388 , 0.67863877, 0.67853873, 0.67843869]])}

 
 


        Target variable : TDA
        Model name: PROPHET
        Feature set: NONE
    
{'k': array([[-0.02120485]]), 'm': array([[0.77008795]]), 'delta': array([[ 1.43498226e-09,  1.64559204e-09, -3.42585011e-09,
         8.60685587e-04,  1.35149737e-08,  9.30656276e-09,
        -1.61629301e-08,  4.46207403e-10,  4.72533695e-09,
        -8.28943666e-11, -2.77861754e-09, -6.29942200e-09,
        -5.48235380e-09,  3.65347932e-08, -1.20944384e-09,
         1.21633792e-08, -4.84979949e-09, -3.62981104e-09,
         1.58032271e-09,  1.09447077e-08, -1.50859043e-09,
        -6.33929078e-09, -3.30300159e-09, -2.54943722e-08,
         1.14367623e-08]]), 'sigma_obs': array([[0.05624163]]), 'beta': array([[ 0.043581  , -0.04219342,  0.01198192,  0.00949269, -0.0106929 ,
        -0.00160688, -0.01237742, -0.01422361, -0.02143703,  0.01789368,
        -0.00859515,  0.00031261,  0.00238742,  0.02454944, -0.0035721 ,
        -0.01242225, -0.00231845,  0.0067845 ,  0.00679158,  0.00204918,
         0.02644764, -0.01893359,  0.00644417, -0.00688974, -0.00823797,
        -0.00839808]]), 'trend': array([[0.77008795, 0.7700297 , 0.76997144, 0.76991319, 0.76985493,
        0.76979668, 0.76973842, 0.76968017, 0.76962191, 0.76956366,
        0.7695054 , 0.76944715, 0.76938889, 0.76933064, 0.76927238,
        0.76921413, 0.76915587, 0.76909762, 0.76903936, 0.76898111,
        0.76892285, 0.7688646 , 0.76880634, 0.76874809, 0.76868983,
        0.76863158, 0.76857332, 0.76851507, 0.76845681, 0.76839856,
        0.7683403 , 0.76828205, 0.76822379, 0.76816554, 0.76810728,
        0.76804903, 0.76799077, 0.76793251, 0.76787426, 0.767816  ,
        0.76775775, 0.76769949, 0.76764124, 0.76758298, 0.76752473,
        0.76746647, 0.76740822, 0.76734996, 0.76729407, 0.76723818,
        0.76718229, 0.7671264 , 0.76707051, 0.76701462, 0.76695873,
        0.76690284, 0.76684695, 0.76679106, 0.76673517, 0.76667928,
        0.76662339, 0.7665675 , 0.76651161, 0.76645572, 0.76639982,
        0.76634393, 0.76628804, 0.76623215, 0.76617626, 0.76612037,
        0.76606448, 0.76600859, 0.7659527 , 0.76589681, 0.76584092,
        0.76578503, 0.76572914, 0.76567325, 0.76561736, 0.76556147,
        0.76550558, 0.76544969, 0.7653938 , 0.76533791, 0.76528201,
        0.76522612, 0.76517023, 0.76511434, 0.76505845, 0.76500256,
        0.76494667, 0.76489078, 0.76483489, 0.764779  , 0.76472311,
        0.76466722, 0.76461133, 0.76455544, 0.76449955, 0.76444366,
        0.76438777, 0.76433188, 0.76427599, 0.76422009, 0.7641642 ,
        0.76410831, 0.76405242, 0.76399653, 0.76394064, 0.76388475,
        0.76382886, 0.76377297, 0.76371708, 0.76366119, 0.7636053 ,
        0.76354941, 0.76349352, 0.76343763, 0.76338174, 0.76332585,
        0.76326996, 0.76321407, 0.76315817, 0.76310228, 0.76304639,
        0.7629905 , 0.76293461, 0.76287872, 0.76282283, 0.76276694,
        0.76271105, 0.76265516, 0.76259927, 0.76254338, 0.76248749,
        0.7624316 , 0.76237571, 0.76231982, 0.76226393, 0.76220804,
        0.76215215, 0.76209625, 0.76204036, 0.76198447, 0.76192858,
        0.76187269, 0.7618168 , 0.76176091, 0.76170502, 0.76164913,
        0.76159324, 0.76153735, 0.76148146, 0.76142557, 0.76136968,
        0.76131379, 0.7612579 , 0.76120201, 0.76114612, 0.76109022,
        0.76103433, 0.76097844, 0.76092255, 0.76086666, 0.76081077,
        0.76075488, 0.76069899, 0.7606431 , 0.76058721, 0.76053132,
        0.76047543, 0.76041954, 0.76036365, 0.76030776, 0.76025187,
        0.76019598, 0.76014009, 0.7600842 , 0.76002831, 0.75997241,
        0.75991652, 0.75986063, 0.75980474, 0.75974885, 0.75969296,
        0.75963707, 0.75958118, 0.75952529, 0.7594694 , 0.75941351,
        0.75935762, 0.75930173, 0.75924584, 0.75918995, 0.75913406,
        0.75907817, 0.75902228, 0.75896639, 0.7589105 , 0.75885461,
        0.75879872, 0.75874283, 0.75868693, 0.75863104, 0.75857515,
        0.75851926, 0.75846337, 0.75840748, 0.75835159, 0.7582957 ,
        0.75823981, 0.75818392, 0.75812803, 0.75807214, 0.75801625,
        0.75796036, 0.75790447, 0.75784858, 0.75779269, 0.7577368 ,
        0.75768091, 0.75762502, 0.75756913, 0.75751324, 0.75745734,
        0.75740145, 0.75734556, 0.75728967, 0.75723378, 0.75717789,
        0.757122  , 0.75706611, 0.75701022, 0.75695433, 0.75689844,
        0.75684255, 0.75678666, 0.75673077, 0.75667488, 0.75661899,
        0.7565631 , 0.75650721, 0.75645132, 0.75639543, 0.75633954,
        0.75628365, 0.75622776, 0.75617186, 0.75611597, 0.75606008,
        0.75600419, 0.7559483 , 0.75589241, 0.75583652, 0.75578063,
        0.75572474, 0.75566885, 0.75561296, 0.75555707, 0.75550118,
        0.75544529, 0.7553894 , 0.75533351, 0.75527762, 0.75522173,
        0.75516584, 0.75510995, 0.75505406, 0.75499817, 0.75494228,
        0.75488638, 0.75483049, 0.7547746 , 0.75471871, 0.75466282,
        0.75460693, 0.75455104, 0.75449515, 0.75443926, 0.75438337,
        0.75432748, 0.75427159, 0.7542157 , 0.75415981, 0.75410392,
        0.75404803, 0.75399214, 0.75393625, 0.75388036, 0.75382447,
        0.75376857, 0.75371268, 0.75365679, 0.7536009 , 0.75354501,
        0.75348912, 0.75343323, 0.75337734, 0.75332145, 0.75326556,
        0.75320967, 0.75315378, 0.75309789, 0.753042  , 0.75298611,
        0.75293022, 0.75287433, 0.75281844, 0.75276255, 0.75270666,
        0.75265077, 0.75259487, 0.75253898, 0.75248309, 0.7524272 ,
        0.75237131, 0.75231542, 0.75225953, 0.75220364, 0.75214775,
        0.75209186, 0.75203597, 0.75198008, 0.75192419, 0.7518683 ,
        0.75181241, 0.75175652, 0.75170063, 0.75164474, 0.75158885,
        0.75153296, 0.75147706, 0.75142117, 0.75136528, 0.75130939,
        0.7512535 , 0.75119761, 0.75114172, 0.75108583, 0.75102994,
        0.75097405, 0.75091816, 0.75086227, 0.75080638, 0.75075049,
        0.7506946 , 0.75063871, 0.75058282, 0.75052693, 0.75047104,
        0.75041515, 0.75035925, 0.75030336, 0.75024747, 0.75019158,
        0.75013569, 0.7500798 , 0.75002391, 0.74996802, 0.74991213,
        0.74985624, 0.74980035, 0.74974446, 0.74968857, 0.74963268]])}

 
 


        Target variable : TDA
        Model name: PROPHET
        Feature set: CALVARS
    
{'k': array([[-0.00924766]]), 'm': array([[0.75764358]]), 'delta': array([[ 1.42499142e-09, -1.45906599e-09,  7.55061571e-09,
         8.92332453e-09, -3.02442605e-10, -3.74833736e-09,
         1.29907545e-06, -6.80366102e-10,  9.65824457e-09,
        -1.01139661e-08, -7.25383317e-10,  4.72481060e-09,
         7.88455007e-09, -4.37312927e-09,  1.01031692e-08,
         8.86817968e-09,  5.82364297e-09, -1.66277028e-09,
        -4.81745778e-10, -1.33023154e-08,  6.51965055e-09,
        -2.54492192e-09, -5.87061254e-09, -5.41186510e-09,
         2.82802834e-09]]), 'sigma_obs': array([[0.05427223]]), 'beta': array([[-1.42841911e-02, -6.15960683e-02,  3.46259482e-02,
         4.25776752e-02,  3.37187784e-03, -2.24396773e-02,
        -1.49647801e-02, -3.39139577e-02, -1.75634848e-02,
         1.56333941e-02, -4.54666016e-03,  1.59329089e-03,
         5.46928192e-03,  2.51745730e-02, -8.77823032e-03,
        -3.28011335e-03,  5.07458490e-05,  1.57458598e-02,
         1.37149432e-02, -1.93977241e-03,  2.08137864e-02,
        -1.37687026e-02,  4.46657201e-03, -4.98270273e-03,
        -6.28036273e-03, -6.58357867e-03,  8.91948328e-03,
         7.48791609e-03,  1.18778326e-02,  7.15406233e-03,
        -2.99286110e-03, -1.41596945e-03, -1.31052353e-03,
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        -1.82352164e-02,  8.83218288e-03, -5.57932828e-02,
        -3.87384557e-02,  7.21293351e-02,  4.05061743e-02,
        -3.97042046e-02, -9.68980015e-03, -3.01507054e-02]]), 'trend': array([[0.75764358, 0.75761817, 0.75759277, 0.75756736, 0.75754196,
        0.75751655, 0.75749115, 0.75746574, 0.75744033, 0.75741493,
        0.75738952, 0.75736412, 0.75733871, 0.75731331, 0.7572879 ,
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        0.75713547, 0.75711006, 0.75708466, 0.75705925, 0.75703384,
        0.75700844, 0.75698303, 0.75695763, 0.75693222, 0.75690682,
        0.75688141, 0.756856  , 0.7568306 , 0.75680519, 0.75677979,
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        0.75599221, 0.75596681, 0.7559414 , 0.755916  , 0.75589059,
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        0.75484906, 0.75482366, 0.75479826, 0.75477286, 0.75474746,
        0.75472205, 0.75469665, 0.75467125, 0.75464585, 0.75462045,
        0.75459504, 0.75456964, 0.75454424, 0.75451884, 0.75449344,
        0.75446803, 0.75444263, 0.75441723, 0.75439183, 0.75436643,
        0.75434102, 0.75431562, 0.75429022, 0.75426482, 0.75423942,
        0.75421401, 0.75418861, 0.75416321, 0.75413781, 0.75411241,
        0.754087  , 0.7540616 , 0.7540362 , 0.7540108 , 0.7539854 ,
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        0.75383298, 0.75380758, 0.75378218, 0.75375678, 0.75373138,
        0.75370597, 0.75368057, 0.75365517, 0.75362977, 0.75360436,
        0.75357896, 0.75355356, 0.75352816, 0.75350276, 0.75347735,
        0.75345195, 0.75342655, 0.75340115, 0.75337575, 0.75335034,
        0.75332494, 0.75329954, 0.75327414, 0.75324874, 0.75322333,
        0.75319793, 0.75317253, 0.75314713, 0.75312173, 0.75309632,
        0.75307092, 0.75304552, 0.75302012, 0.75299472, 0.75296931,
        0.75294391, 0.75291851, 0.75289311, 0.75286771, 0.7528423 ,
        0.7528169 , 0.7527915 , 0.7527661 , 0.7527407 , 0.75271529,
        0.75268989, 0.75266449, 0.75263909, 0.75261369, 0.75258828,
        0.75256288, 0.75253748, 0.75251208, 0.75248668, 0.75246128,
        0.75243587, 0.75241047, 0.75238507, 0.75235967, 0.75233427,
        0.75230886, 0.75228346, 0.75225806, 0.75223266, 0.75220726,
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        0.75205484, 0.75202944, 0.75200404, 0.75197864, 0.75195324,
        0.75192783, 0.75190243, 0.75187703, 0.75185163, 0.75182623,
        0.75180082, 0.75177542, 0.75175002, 0.75172462, 0.75169922,
        0.75167381, 0.75164841, 0.75162301, 0.75159761, 0.75157221,
        0.7515468 , 0.7515214 , 0.751496  , 0.7514706 , 0.7514452 ,
        0.75141979, 0.75139439, 0.75136899, 0.75134359, 0.75131819,
        0.75129278, 0.75126738, 0.75124198, 0.75121658, 0.75119118,
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        0.75103876, 0.75101336, 0.75098796, 0.75096256, 0.75093716,
        0.75091175, 0.75088635, 0.75086095, 0.75083555, 0.75081015,
        0.75078474, 0.75075934, 0.75073394, 0.75070854, 0.75068314,
        0.75065773, 0.75063233, 0.75060693, 0.75058153, 0.75055613,
        0.75053072, 0.75050532, 0.75047992, 0.75045452, 0.75042912,
        0.75040371, 0.75037831, 0.75035291, 0.75032751, 0.75030211,
        0.7502767 , 0.7502513 , 0.7502259 , 0.7502005 , 0.7501751 ,
        0.75014969, 0.75012429, 0.75009889, 0.75007349, 0.75004809,
        0.75002268, 0.74999728, 0.74997188, 0.74994648, 0.74992108,
        0.74989567, 0.74987027, 0.74984487, 0.74981947, 0.74979407,
        0.74976866, 0.74974326, 0.74971786, 0.74969246, 0.74966706,
        0.74964165, 0.74961625, 0.74959085, 0.74956545, 0.74954005,
        0.74951464, 0.74948924, 0.74946384, 0.74943844, 0.74941304,
        0.74938763, 0.74936223, 0.74933683, 0.74931143, 0.74928603,
        0.74926062, 0.74923522, 0.74920982, 0.74918442, 0.74915902,
        0.74913361, 0.74910821, 0.74908281, 0.74905741, 0.74903201,
        0.7490066 , 0.7489812 , 0.7489558 , 0.7489304 , 0.748905  ,
        0.74887959, 0.74885419, 0.74882879, 0.74880339, 0.74877799,
        0.74875258, 0.74872718, 0.74870178, 0.74867638, 0.74865098,
        0.74862557, 0.74860017, 0.74857477, 0.74854937, 0.74852396,
        0.74849856, 0.74847316, 0.74844776, 0.74842236, 0.74839695]])}

 
 


        Target variable : DPO
        Model name: PROPHET
        Feature set: CALVARS
    
{'k': array([[-0.02159868]]), 'm': array([[0.69273856]]), 'delta': array([[-3.63383880e-09, -5.41362633e-09,  2.97475446e-09,
         3.93428294e-09,  2.44201384e-09, -5.00637649e-09,
        -6.33684215e-10,  1.23242952e-09, -3.46489205e-09,
         1.60333831e-09,  9.37900273e-09,  2.24516713e-09,
        -3.11692601e-10, -1.83986876e-09, -9.03294699e-10,
        -1.89277755e-09,  7.65836766e-11,  8.36694217e-10,
        -1.97445126e-09,  1.56097271e-09,  2.49524715e-09,
        -9.34556571e-10,  9.98325922e-10,  8.73115259e-10,
         3.76095650e-10]]), 'sigma_obs': array([[0.09879627]]), 'beta': array([[-0.00346862, -0.04066104,  0.05255951,  0.04090483,  0.01664783,
        -0.00906319, -0.0084119 , -0.05081401, -0.01577798,  0.01220966,
        -0.00275749, -0.00100769, -0.00233042,  0.02259603, -0.00975962,
         0.00309242, -0.00286723,  0.01254908,  0.02002684, -0.0007309 ,
        -0.01287767,  0.01791022,  0.05314897,  0.00687573, -0.02398312,
        -0.01542889,  0.02455195,  0.0266166 , -0.00160366, -0.01368212,
         0.01154535,  0.0080332 ,  0.00664203,  0.11785889, -0.08556843,
         0.07594081, -0.07324768,  0.00657578, -0.0400257 , -0.01354649,
         0.08091436, -0.01334122, -0.01729966,  0.02195067,  0.00189202]]), 'trend': array([[0.69273856, 0.69267923, 0.69261989, 0.69256055, 0.69250122,
        0.69244188, 0.69238254, 0.69232321, 0.69226387, 0.69220453,
        0.69214519, 0.69208586, 0.69202652, 0.69196718, 0.69190785,
        0.69184851, 0.69178917, 0.69172983, 0.6916705 , 0.69161116,
        0.69155182, 0.69149249, 0.69143315, 0.69137381, 0.69131448,
        0.69125514, 0.6911958 , 0.69113646, 0.69107713, 0.69101779,
        0.69095845, 0.69089912, 0.69083978, 0.69078044, 0.6907211 ,
        0.69066177, 0.69060243, 0.69054309, 0.69048376, 0.69042442,
        0.69036508, 0.69030575, 0.69024641, 0.69018707, 0.69012773,
        0.6900684 , 0.69000906, 0.68994972, 0.68989039, 0.68983105,
        0.68977171, 0.68971237, 0.68965304, 0.6895937 , 0.68953436,
        0.68947503, 0.68941569, 0.68935635, 0.68929702, 0.68923768,
        0.68917834, 0.689119  , 0.68905967, 0.68900033, 0.68894099,
        0.68888166, 0.68882232, 0.68876298, 0.68870364, 0.68864431,
        0.68858497, 0.68852563, 0.6884663 , 0.68840696, 0.68834762,
        0.68828829, 0.68822895, 0.68816961, 0.68811027, 0.68805094,
        0.6879916 , 0.68793226, 0.68787293, 0.68781359, 0.68775425,
        0.68769491, 0.68763558, 0.68757624, 0.6875169 , 0.68745757,
        0.68739823, 0.68733889, 0.68727956, 0.68722022, 0.68716088,
        0.68710154, 0.68704221, 0.68698287, 0.68692353, 0.6868642 ,
        0.68680486, 0.68674552, 0.68668618, 0.68662685, 0.68656751,
        0.68650817, 0.68644884, 0.6863895 , 0.68633016, 0.68627083,
        0.68621149, 0.68615215, 0.68609281, 0.68603348, 0.68597414,
        0.6859148 , 0.68585547, 0.68579613, 0.68573679, 0.68567745,
        0.68561812, 0.68555878, 0.68549944, 0.68544011, 0.68538077,
        0.68532143, 0.6852621 , 0.68520276, 0.68514342, 0.68508408,
        0.68502475, 0.68496541, 0.68490607, 0.68484674, 0.6847874 ,
        0.68472806, 0.68466873, 0.68460939, 0.68455005, 0.68449071,
        0.68443138, 0.68437204, 0.6843127 , 0.68425337, 0.68419403,
        0.68413469, 0.68407535, 0.68401602, 0.68395668, 0.68389734,
        0.68383801, 0.68377867, 0.68371933, 0.68366   , 0.68360066,
        0.68354132, 0.68348198, 0.68342265, 0.68336331, 0.68330397,
        0.68324464, 0.6831853 , 0.68312596, 0.68306663, 0.68300729,
        0.68294795, 0.68288861, 0.68282928, 0.68276994, 0.6827106 ,
        0.68265127, 0.68259193, 0.68253259, 0.68247326, 0.68241392,
        0.68235458, 0.68229524, 0.68223591, 0.68217657, 0.68211723,
        0.6820579 , 0.68199856, 0.68193922, 0.68187988, 0.68182055,
        0.68176121, 0.68170187, 0.68164254, 0.6815832 , 0.68152386,
        0.68146453, 0.68140519, 0.68134585, 0.68128651, 0.68122718,
        0.68116784, 0.6811085 , 0.68104917, 0.68098983, 0.68093049,
        0.68087116, 0.68081182, 0.68075248, 0.68069314, 0.68063381,
        0.68057447, 0.68051513, 0.6804558 , 0.68039646, 0.68033712,
        0.68027778, 0.68021845, 0.68015911, 0.68009977, 0.68004044,
        0.6799811 , 0.67992176, 0.67986243, 0.67980309, 0.67974375,
        0.67968441, 0.67962508, 0.67956574, 0.6795064 , 0.67944707,
        0.67938773, 0.67932839, 0.67926905, 0.67920972, 0.67915038,
        0.67909104, 0.67903171, 0.67897237, 0.67891303, 0.6788537 ,
        0.67879436, 0.67873502, 0.67867568, 0.67861635, 0.67855701,
        0.67849767, 0.67843834, 0.678379  , 0.67831966, 0.67826033,
        0.67820099, 0.67814165, 0.67808231, 0.67802298, 0.67796364,
        0.6779043 , 0.67784497, 0.67778563, 0.67772629, 0.67766695,
        0.67760762, 0.67754828, 0.67748894, 0.67742961, 0.67737027,
        0.67731093, 0.6772516 , 0.67719226, 0.67713292, 0.67707358,
        0.67701425, 0.67695491, 0.67689557, 0.67683624, 0.6767769 ,
        0.67671756, 0.67665823, 0.67659889, 0.67653955, 0.67648021,
        0.67642088, 0.67636154, 0.6763022 , 0.67624287, 0.67618353,
        0.67612419, 0.67606486, 0.67600552, 0.67594618, 0.67588684,
        0.67582751, 0.67576817, 0.67570883, 0.6756495 , 0.67559016,
        0.67553082, 0.67547148, 0.67541215, 0.67535281, 0.67529347,
        0.67523414, 0.6751748 , 0.67511546, 0.67505613, 0.67499679,
        0.67493745, 0.67487811, 0.67481878, 0.67475944, 0.6747001 ,
        0.67464077, 0.67458143, 0.67452209, 0.67446276, 0.67440342,
        0.67434408, 0.67428474, 0.67422541, 0.67416607, 0.67410673,
        0.6740474 , 0.67398806, 0.67392872, 0.67386939, 0.67381005,
        0.67375071, 0.67369137, 0.67363204, 0.6735727 , 0.67351336,
        0.67345403, 0.67339469, 0.67333535, 0.67327601, 0.67321668,
        0.67315734, 0.673098  , 0.67303867, 0.67297933, 0.67291999,
        0.67286066, 0.67280132, 0.67274198, 0.67268264, 0.67262331,
        0.67256397, 0.67250463, 0.6724453 , 0.67238596, 0.67232662,
        0.67226729, 0.67220795, 0.67214861, 0.67208927, 0.67202994,
        0.6719706 , 0.67191126, 0.67185193, 0.67179259, 0.67173325,
        0.67167391, 0.67161458, 0.67155524, 0.6714959 , 0.67143657,
        0.67137723, 0.67131789, 0.67125856, 0.67119922, 0.67113988]])}

 
 

Dependencies

In [27]:
!conda list -n covariates
# packages in environment at /Users/jalmarituominen/miniconda3/envs/covariates:
#
# Name                    Version                   Build  Channel
absl-py                   0.11.0           py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
adjusttext                0.7.3                    pypi_0    pypi
altair                    4.1.0                      py_1    conda-forge
ansiwrap                  0.8.4                      py_0    conda-forge
appdirs                   1.4.4              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
appnope                   0.1.2            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
argon2-cffi               20.1.0           py37h4b544eb_2    conda-forge
arviz                     0.10.0                     py_0    conda-forge
astor                     0.8.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
astroid                   2.4.2            py37hc8dfbb8_1    conda-forge
async_generator           1.10                       py_0    conda-forge
attrs                     20.3.0             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
backcall                  0.2.0              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
backports                 1.0                        py_2    conda-forge
backports.functools_lru_cache 1.6.1                      py_0    conda-forge
bioinfokit                0.9.6                    pypi_0    pypi
black                     20.8b1                     py_1    conda-forge
bleach                    3.2.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
brotlipy                  0.7.0           py37h395d20d_1001    conda-forge
bzip2                     1.0.8                hc929b4f_4    conda-forge
c-ares                    1.17.1               hc929b4f_0    conda-forge
ca-certificates           2020.12.5            h033912b_0    conda-forge
cached-property           1.5.1                      py_0    conda-forge
cctools_osx-64            949.0.1             h2f0f38f_19    conda-forge
certifi                   2020.12.5        py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
cffi                      1.14.4           py37hc5b2277_1    conda-forge
cftime                    1.3.0            py37h8ba3199_0    conda-forge
chardet                   4.0.0            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
clang                     10.0.1          default_hf57f61e_1    conda-forge
clang_osx-64              10.0.1              h05bbb7f_10    conda-forge
clangxx                   10.0.1          default_hf57f61e_1    conda-forge
clangxx_osx-64            10.0.1              h05bbb7f_10    conda-forge
click                     7.1.2              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
compiler-rt               10.0.1               he6db49b_0    conda-forge
compiler-rt_osx-64        10.0.1               h033240e_0    conda-forge
convertdate               2.3.0              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
cryptography              3.3.1            py37haf76d9e_0    conda-forge
curl                      7.71.1               hcb81553_8    conda-forge
cycler                    0.10.0                     py_2    conda-forge
cython                    0.29.17                  pypi_0    pypi
dataclasses               0.7                pyhb2cacf7_7    conda-forge
dbus                      1.13.6               h0c50699_1    conda-forge
decorator                 4.4.2                      py_0    conda-forge
defusedxml                0.6.0                      py_0    conda-forge
entrypoints               0.3             pyhd8ed1ab_1003    conda-forge
ephem                     3.7.7.1          py37h60d8a13_1    conda-forge
et_xmlfile                1.0.1                   py_1001    conda-forge
expat                     2.2.9                hb1e8313_2    conda-forge
factor_analyzer           0.3.2              pyh39e3cac_0    ets
fbprophet                 0.7.1            py37hdadc0f0_0    conda-forge
fire                      0.3.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
freetype                  2.10.4               h3f75d11_0    conda-forge
gast                      0.4.0              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
gettext                   0.19.8.1          h7937167_1005    conda-forge
glib                      2.66.4               h22858aa_1    conda-forge
google-pasta              0.2.0              pyh8c360ce_0    conda-forge
grpcio                    1.34.0           py37hddd7880_0    conda-forge
h5py                      3.1.0           nompi_py37h6dbf366_100    conda-forge
hdf4                      4.2.13            h71d84a9_1004    conda-forge
hdf5                      1.10.6          nompi_h0f9794f_1112    conda-forge
holidays                  0.10.3             pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
icu                       64.2                 h6de7cb9_1    conda-forge
idna                      2.10               pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
importlib-metadata        3.3.0            py37hf985489_2    conda-forge
importlib_metadata        3.3.0                hd8ed1ab_2    conda-forge
iniconfig                 1.1.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
ipykernel                 5.4.2            py37he01cfaa_0    conda-forge
ipython                   7.19.0           py37he01cfaa_0    conda-forge
ipython_genutils          0.2.0                      py_1    conda-forge
ipywidgets                7.5.1              pyh9f0ad1d_1    conda-forge
isort                     5.6.4                      py_0    conda-forge
jdcal                     1.4.1                      py_0    conda-forge
jedi                      0.15.2                   py37_0    conda-forge
jinja2                    2.11.2             pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
joblib                    1.0.0              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
jpeg                      9d                   hbcb3906_0    conda-forge
json5                     0.9.5              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
jsonschema                3.2.0                      py_2    conda-forge
jupyter                   1.0.0                      py_2    conda-forge
jupyter_client            6.1.7                      py_0    conda-forge
jupyter_console           6.2.0                      py_0    conda-forge
jupyter_contrib_core      0.3.3                      py_2    conda-forge
jupyter_contrib_nbextensions 0.5.1            py37hc8dfbb8_1    conda-forge
jupyter_core              4.7.0            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
jupyter_highlight_selected_word 0.2.0           py37hc8dfbb8_1002    conda-forge
jupyter_latex_envs        1.4.6           py37hc8dfbb8_1001    conda-forge
jupyter_nbextensions_configurator 0.4.1            py37hc8dfbb8_2    conda-forge
jupyterlab                2.2.9                      py_0    conda-forge
jupyterlab_pygments       0.1.2              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
jupyterlab_server         1.2.0                      py_0    conda-forge
keras                     2.3.1                    py37_0    conda-forge
keras-applications        1.0.8                      py_1    conda-forge
keras-preprocessing       1.1.0                      py_0    conda-forge
kiwisolver                1.3.1            py37h8ec247f_0    conda-forge
korean_lunar_calendar     0.2.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
krb5                      1.17.2               h60d9502_0    conda-forge
lazy-object-proxy         1.4.3            py37h60d8a13_2    conda-forge
lcms2                     2.11                 h11f7e16_1    conda-forge
ld64_osx-64               530                 hea264c1_17    conda-forge
ldid                      2.1.2                h7660a38_2    conda-forge
libblas                   3.9.0                3_openblas    conda-forge
libcblas                  3.9.0                3_openblas    conda-forge
libclang-cpp10            10.0.1          default_hf57f61e_1    conda-forge
libcurl                   7.71.1               h9bf37e3_8    conda-forge
libcxx                    11.0.0               h4c3b8ed_1    conda-forge
libedit                   3.1.20191231         h0678c8f_2    conda-forge
libev                     4.33                 haf1e3a3_1    conda-forge
libffi                    3.3                  h046ec9c_2    conda-forge
libgfortran               5.0.0               h7cc5361_13    conda-forge
libgfortran5              9.3.0               h7cc5361_13    conda-forge
libglib                   2.66.4               h7424822_1    conda-forge
libgpuarray               0.7.6             h1de35cc_1003    conda-forge
libiconv                  1.16                 haf1e3a3_0    conda-forge
liblapack                 3.9.0                3_openblas    conda-forge
libllvm10                 10.0.1               h009f743_1    conda-forge
libllvm11                 11.0.0               hf85e3d2_0    conda-forge
libnetcdf                 4.7.4           nompi_h9d8a93f_107    conda-forge
libnghttp2                1.41.0               h7580e61_2    conda-forge
libopenblas               0.3.12          openmp_h54245bb_1    conda-forge
libpng                    1.6.37               h7cec526_2    conda-forge
libprotobuf               3.14.0               hfd3ada9_0    conda-forge
libsodium                 1.0.18               hbcb3906_1    conda-forge
libssh2                   1.9.0                h8a08a2b_5    conda-forge
libtiff                   4.1.0                hca7d577_6    conda-forge
libuv                     1.34.0               h0b31af3_0    conda-forge
libwebp-base              1.1.0                hbcb3906_3    conda-forge
libxml2                   2.9.10               h53d96d6_0    conda-forge
libxslt                   1.1.33               h320ff13_0    conda-forge
llvm-openmp               11.0.0               h73239a0_1    conda-forge
llvm-tools                10.0.1               h1341992_1    conda-forge
llvmlite                  0.35.0           py37hd739bdf_0    conda-forge
lunarcalendar             0.0.9                      py_0    conda-forge
lxml                      4.6.2            py37h52eb7ab_0    conda-forge
lz4-c                     1.9.2                hb1e8313_3    conda-forge
mako                      1.1.3              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
markdown                  3.3.3              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
markupsafe                1.1.1            py37h395d20d_2    conda-forge
matplotlib                3.3.3            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
matplotlib-base           3.3.3            py37hdacc966_0    conda-forge
matplotlib-venn           0.11.5                   pypi_0    pypi
mccabe                    0.6.1                      py_1    conda-forge
missingno                 0.4.2                      py_1    conda-forge
mistune                   0.8.4           py37h4b544eb_1002    conda-forge
mlxtend                   0.18.0             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
more-itertools            8.6.0              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
mypy_extensions           0.4.3            py37hf985489_2    conda-forge
nano                      2.9.8             h1b7e3c9_1001    conda-forge
nbclient                  0.5.1                      py_0    conda-forge
nbconvert                 6.0.7            py37hf985489_3    conda-forge
nbformat                  5.0.8                      py_0    conda-forge
ncurses                   6.2                  h2e338ed_4    conda-forge
nest-asyncio              1.4.3              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
netcdf4                   1.5.5           nompi_py37h40892a9_100    conda-forge
nodejs                    13.13.0              h38d8c5a_0    conda-forge
notebook                  6.1.5            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
numba                     0.52.0           py37h53bd85b_0    conda-forge
numpy                     1.19.4           py37hec87de9_2    conda-forge
olefile                   0.46               pyh9f0ad1d_1    conda-forge
openpyxl                  3.0.5                      py_0    conda-forge
openssl                   1.1.1i               h35c211d_0    conda-forge
packaging                 20.8               pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
pandas                    1.1.5            py37h010c265_0    conda-forge
pandoc                    2.11.3               h35c211d_0    conda-forge
pandocfilters             1.4.2                      py_1    conda-forge
papermill                 2.2.2              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
parso                     0.8.1              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
pathlib                   1.0.1            py37hc8dfbb8_3    conda-forge
pathspec                  0.8.1              pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
patsy                     0.5.1                      py_0    conda-forge
pcre                      8.44                 hb1e8313_0    conda-forge
pexpect                   4.8.0              pyh9f0ad1d_2    conda-forge
pickleshare               0.7.5                   py_1003    conda-forge
pillow                    8.0.1            py37h09f51b7_0    conda-forge
pip                       20.3.3             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
plotly                    4.14.1             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
pluggy                    0.13.1           py37h2987424_3    conda-forge
pmdarima                  1.7.1                    pypi_0    pypi
prometheus_client         0.9.0              pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
prompt-toolkit            3.0.8              pyha770c72_0    conda-forge
prompt_toolkit            3.0.8                hd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
protobuf                  3.14.0           py37h54c7649_0    conda-forge
ptyprocess                0.6.0                   py_1001    conda-forge
py                        1.10.0             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
pycparser                 2.20               pyh9f0ad1d_2    conda-forge
pygments                  2.7.3              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
pygpu                     0.7.6           py37h57c32b8_1002    conda-forge
pylint                    2.6.0            py37hc8dfbb8_1    conda-forge
pymeeus                   0.3.7              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
pyopenssl                 20.0.1             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
pyparsing                 2.4.7              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
pyprojroot                0.2.0                      py_0    conda-forge
pyqt                      5.9.2            py37h2a560b1_4    conda-forge
pyrsistent                0.17.3           py37h4b544eb_1    conda-forge
pysocks                   1.7.1            py37h2987424_2    conda-forge
pystan                    2.19.1.1         py37h6d0141a_2    conda-forge
pytest                    6.2.1            py37hf985489_0    conda-forge
python                    3.7.9           h6c3b2c9_0_cpython    conda-forge
python-dateutil           2.8.1                      py_0    conda-forge
python_abi                3.7                     1_cp37m    conda-forge
pytz                      2020.4             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
pyyaml                    5.3.1            py37h395d20d_1    conda-forge
pyzmq                     20.0.0           py37h47fd9b3_1    conda-forge
qt                        5.9.7                h8cf7e54_3    conda-forge
qtconsole                 5.0.1              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
qtpy                      1.9.0                      py_0    conda-forge
readline                  8.0                  h0678c8f_2    conda-forge
regex                     2020.11.13       py37h4b544eb_0    conda-forge
requests                  2.25.1             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
retrying                  1.3.3                      py_2    conda-forge
rope                      0.18.0             pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
scikit-learn              0.23.2           py37ha0250bc_3    conda-forge
scipy                     1.5.3            py37h821cff1_0    conda-forge
seaborn                   0.11.0               h694c41f_1    conda-forge
seaborn-base              0.11.0             pyhd8ed1ab_1    conda-forge
send2trash                1.5.0                      py_0    conda-forge
setuptools                49.6.0           py37h2987424_2    conda-forge
sip                       4.19.8           py37h0a44026_0  
six                       1.15.0             pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
sqlite                    3.34.0               h17101e1_0    conda-forge
statsmodels               0.12.1           py37h8ba3199_1    conda-forge
tabulate                  0.8.7                    pypi_0    pypi
tapi                      1100.0.11            h9ce4665_0    conda-forge
tenacity                  6.3.1              pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
tensorboard               1.14.0                   py37_0    conda-forge
tensorflow                1.14.0               h3cdfc77_0    conda-forge
tensorflow-base           1.14.0           py37hc8dfbb8_0    conda-forge
tensorflow-estimator      1.14.0           py37h5ca1d4c_0    conda-forge
termcolor                 1.1.0                      py_2    conda-forge
terminado                 0.9.1            py37hf985489_1    conda-forge
testpath                  0.4.4                      py_0    conda-forge
textwrap3                 0.9.2                      py_0    conda-forge
theano                    1.0.5            py37he8cc110_1    conda-forge
threadpoolctl             2.1.0              pyh5ca1d4c_0    conda-forge
tk                        8.6.10               h0419947_1    conda-forge
toml                      0.10.2             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
toolz                     0.11.1                     py_0    conda-forge
tornado                   6.1              py37h4b544eb_0    conda-forge
tqdm                      4.54.1             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
traitlets                 5.0.5                      py_0    conda-forge
typed-ast                 1.4.1            py37h4b544eb_1    conda-forge
typing_extensions         3.7.4.3                    py_0    conda-forge
urllib3                   1.26.2             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
vega_datasets             0.9.0              pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
wcwidth                   0.2.5              pyh9f0ad1d_2    conda-forge
webencodings              0.5.1                      py_1    conda-forge
werkzeug                  1.0.1              pyh9f0ad1d_0    conda-forge
wheel                     0.36.2             pyhd3deb0d_0    conda-forge
widgetsnbextension        3.5.1            py37hf985489_4    conda-forge
wrapt                     1.11.2           py37h60d8a13_1    conda-forge
xarray                    0.16.2             pyhd8ed1ab_0    conda-forge
xlrd                      1.2.0              pyh9f0ad1d_1    conda-forge
xz                        5.2.5                haf1e3a3_1    conda-forge
yaml                      0.2.5                haf1e3a3_0    conda-forge
zeromq                    4.3.3                h74dc148_3    conda-forge
zipp                      3.4.0                      py_0    conda-forge
zlib                      1.2.11            h7795811_1010    conda-forge
zstd                      1.4.5                h289c70a_2    conda-forge