========================================================================
(A) gap-vs-signal Spearman with 95% bootstrap CIs (shifted pairs)
========================================================================
  dT             rho=+0.888  95% CI [+0.838, +0.919]   (needs labels/oracle)
  conf_js        rho=+0.631  95% CI [+0.490, +0.743]   (label-free)
  entropy_shift  rho=+0.554  95% CI [+0.403, +0.679]   (label-free)
  acc_drop       rho=+0.600  95% CI [+0.436, +0.740]   (needs labels/oracle)
  atc_err        rho=+0.160  95% CI [-0.014, +0.325]   (label-free)

========================================================================
(B) per-model and per-seed consistency (Spearman) for key signals
========================================================================
  signal = dT
    model LR    : rho=+0.917  (n=60)
    model LSVM  : rho=+0.919  (n=60)
    per-seed rho range: [+0.714, +0.912]  mean +0.823
  signal = conf_js
    model LR    : rho=+0.652  (n=60)
    model LSVM  : rho=+0.607  (n=60)
    per-seed rho range: [+0.541, +0.786]  mean +0.659
  signal = entropy_shift
    model LR    : rho=+0.581  (n=60)
    model LSVM  : rho=+0.549  (n=60)
    per-seed rho range: [+0.480, +0.693]  mean +0.568

========================================================================
(C) detection of SEVERE transfer failure (gap > 0.03) from label-free signals
========================================================================
  prevalence of severe pairs: 0.408  (n=120)
  conf_js        AUROC=0.790 [0.698,0.872]  AUPRC=0.800 [0.697,0.880]  (base rate 0.408)
  entropy_shift  AUROC=0.772 [0.682,0.855]  AUPRC=0.768 [0.661,0.858]  (base rate 0.408)

  THRESHOLD SENSITIVITY: AUROC of confidence-JS at several severe-thresholds tau
    tau=0.020  prevalence=0.533  AUROC(conf_js)=0.788  AUROC(entropy)=0.760
    tau=0.025  prevalence=0.450  AUROC(conf_js)=0.773  AUROC(entropy)=0.735
    tau=0.030  prevalence=0.408  AUROC(conf_js)=0.790  AUROC(entropy)=0.772
    tau=0.040  prevalence=0.308  AUROC(conf_js)=0.828  AUROC(entropy)=0.796