# Study 2 Financial Tail-Decision Results

- Assets: 11
- Non-overlapping asset-blocks: 2,710
- Block-level fit failure rate: 0.000%

## Equal-weight asset inference

| comparison                          | outcome          |   estimate |     ci_low |    ci_high |   p_one_sided |   p_holm |   assets_improved |   assets_total |
|:------------------------------------|:-----------------|-----------:|-----------:|-----------:|--------------:|---------:|------------------:|---------------:|
| acceptable_set_minus_gaussian       | coverage_error   | 0.00572874 | 0.00134134 | 0.00785339 |      0.996502 |        1 |                 1 |             11 |
| acceptable_set_minus_selected       | coverage_error   | 0.00891143 | 0.00423817 | 0.0100177  |      1        |        1 |                 0 |             11 |
| acceptable_set_relative_to_selected | relative_capital | 0.0946544  | 0.0790678  | 0.112947   |    nan        |      nan |               nan |             11 |

## Decision

The frozen financial-value claim does not pass.

| gate                          |   observed | rule                          | passed   |
|:------------------------------|-----------:|:------------------------------|:---------|
| coverage_better_than_gaussian | 0.00572874 | estimate < 0 and Holm p < .05 | False    |
| coverage_better_than_selected | 0.00891143 | estimate < 0 and Holm p < .05 | False    |
| capital_margin                | 0.112947   | 95% CI upper bound <= 0.10    | False    |
| majority_assets_gaussian      | 1          | > 5.5                         | False    |
| majority_assets_selected      | 0          | > 5.5                         | False    |
| leave_one_out_direction       | 0          | all differences < 0           | False    |
| fit_failure_rate              | 0          | < 0.05                        | True     |
| all_study2_gates              | 0          | equals 1                      | False    |
