# Replication materials — The Harmonic Susceptibility Index (HSI)

This repository contains the data and code needed to reproduce the core
numerical results reported in the paper *"The Harmonic Susceptibility Index:
a multidimensional measure of structural predisposition to development"*.

The replication is **self-contained**: starting from the datasets deposited
here and running a single script, all central quantities in the paper are
reproduced. No external download or registration is required to run it.

---

## Contents

| File | Description |
|------|-------------|
| `replicate_HSI.R` | Single, self-contained replication script (base R, no packages). |
| `data_individual_items.csv` | Individual-level analytical dataset: 21 normalised EVS-WVS items + ISO-2 country code. 156,658 respondents. **Derived extract** — see *Data provenance* below. |
| `data_individual_welzel.csv` | Individual-level extract of the 12 emancipative-values items (Welzel 2013), recoded to the emancipative direction on [0,1], + ISO-2 country code. Used by the discriminant-validity comparison of Section 4.6. **Derived extract.** |
| `data_country_HOI.csv` | Country-level Harmonic Outcome Index (HOI), the independent well-being validation measure. 92 countries. |
| `HDI_2023.csv` | Human Development Index 2023 (UNDP). External benchmark. |
| `LPI_2023.csv` | Legatum Prosperity Index 2023. External benchmark. |
| `TEHA_GAI_2025.csv` | TEHA Global Attractiveness Index 2025 (The European House – Ambrosetti). External benchmark. |
| `WGI_2024.csv` | Worldwide Governance Indicators 2024 (World Bank). External benchmark. |
| `GII_2025.csv` | Global Innovation Index 2025 (WIPO). External benchmark. |
| `WHR_LifeLadder_2020.csv` | World Happiness Report life ladder, 2020 (Gallup World Poll). Independent convergent outcome and external well-being outcome for Section 4.6. |

---

## How to run

Requirements: **R ≥ 4.0**, base installation only (no additional packages).

Place all files in the same directory and run:

```
Rscript replicate_HSI.R
```

Runtime is a few minutes (the leave-one-item-out analysis rebuilds the full
individual-level chain twenty-one times). The script prints each reproduced
quantity next to the value reported in the paper, so that agreement can be
checked directly on screen. Sections whose optional input files are absent
are skipped with an explicit message.

---

## What the script reproduces

The script follows the analytical chain of the paper:

1. **Construction of the seven S.P.A. dimensions** from the 21 individual-level
   items (robust mean of each Spirit/Thought/Action triple, "at least 2 of 3"
   rule), then aggregation to country level.
2. **HSI** via the certified formula (Section 3.4 of the paper): penalised
   composition for dimensional dissonance and weakness, then min-max
   normalisation to [0,1].
3. **Harmonic classes** via fixed cut-offs on the normalised HSI at 0.25, 0.50
   and 0.75 (Section 4.1; applied to the observed distribution this yields
   12 / 29 / 42 / 9 countries) and **quadrants** (sample-standardised systemic
   and relational poles).
4. **External validation** against the HOI (Pearson r, R², bootstrap CI for the
   slope) and comparison with the non-penalised Integral Score.
5. **Discriminant validity** against five non-survey benchmarks (incremental
   R² of the HSI over each, HOI as outcome) and **convergent validation**
   against the World Happiness Report life ladder.
6. **Robustness** (Section 4.5): alternative dimensional weights; geometric
   aggregation; joint Monte Carlo perturbation of the five penalty
   coefficients (±50%, 5,000 draws); individual perturbation of each
   coefficient (20 specifications, Spearman and Kendall); removal of the most
   value-laden items (religiosity, obedience) singly and jointly;
   leave-one-item-out over all 21 items; stability of the East Asian Q4
   pattern; inter-dimensional correlation structure and empirical support for
   the two-pole partition (Section 3.5).
7. **Zero-penalty comparison** (Section 4.5, Fig. 5): HSI vs the min-max-
   normalised Integral Score, class-transition and rank-movement analysis.
8. **Spatial / regional non-independence** (Section 4.5): Moran's I on the
   regression residuals with a macro-region contiguity matrix (permutation
   test) and region-clustered (CR1) standard errors.
9. **External-outcome discriminant test** (Section 4.6): incremental R² of the
   HSI over each benchmark with the WHR life ladder as dependent variable,
   and the reverse contribution of each benchmark over the HSI.
10. **Discriminant validity vs Welzel's emancipative values** (Section 4.6):
    country-level correlation of the HSI with the emancipative-values index
    reconstructed from the 12 individual-level items, and decomposition of
    the HSI into its level component (Integral Score) and configurational
    component (Compensation Delta = sum of the penalty terms).

Not reproduced here: the class-membership bootstrap of Section 4.5 (10,000
individual-level resamples), which follows the full pipeline's protocol and
is computationally heavy; it is documented in the pipeline materials.

### Expected values (computed vs paper)

| Quantity | Paper |
|----------|-------|
| Top / bottom country HSI | Sweden 1.000 / Egypt 0.000 |
| Italy HSI / rank | 0.498 / #42 |
| Harmonic classes (High/Good/Medium/Low) | 12 / 29 / 42 / 9 |
| Quadrants (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4) | 22 / 24 / 29 / 17 |
| HSI–HOI Pearson r / R² | 0.521 / 0.271 |
| Integral Score R² (S only) | 0.188 |
| HOI-on-HSI slope, bootstrap 95% CI | ≈ [0.09, 0.18] |
| Robustness Monte Carlo median ρ (90% CI) | 0.997 [0.992, 0.999] |
| High-class stability, joint Monte Carlo | ≈ 98.7% |
| Variance weights / geometric aggregation ρ | 0.993 / 0.998 |
| Individual λ perturbation: min Spearman / min Kendall | ≥ 0.99 / ≥ 0.94 |
| Individual λ perturbation: High class (top 12) exchanges | 0 at ±25%; ≤ 1 at ±50% |
| Value-laden item removal (min ρ) / LOIO median ρ | ≥ 0.989 / ≈ 0.99 |
| East Asia in Q4 (baseline / joint removal) | 8/8 / core preserved (5/8) |
| Inter-dimensional r: range / median / pairs below 0.30 | [−0.29, 0.59] / 0.36 / 9 of 21 |
| Pole partition: mean within- / between-pole r | 0.46 / 0.15 |
| Zero-penalty: Spearman ρ / class changes | 0.870 / 33 |
| Zero-penalty: class direction (higher / lower under HSI) | 28 / 5 |
| Zero-penalty: rank among changers (improves / worsens) | 25 / 8 |
| High members demoted without penalties | CA, GB, NIR, US, UY |
| Moran's I on residuals (E[I]) / permutation p | 0.078 (−0.011) / ≈ 0.02 |
| Region-clustered t vs OLS t | cluster t > OLS t (both p < 0.001) |
| External outcome (WHR ladder): HSI ΔR² over benchmarks | 0.042 – 0.139 |
| External outcome: benchmarks ΔR² over HSI | 0.160 – 0.409 |
| HSI–WHR life ladder Pearson r | 0.585 |
| HSI ~ Welzel emancipative values (Pearson / Spearman) | 0.654 / 0.530 |
| Welzel ~ Integral Score (level component) | 0.777 |
| Welzel ~ Compensation Delta (configurational component) | −0.434 |

The HSI ranking, classes, quadrants, HOI validation, robustness, zero-penalty
and Welzel quantities reproduce to the third decimal.

**Notes on marginal differences.** (1) Discriminant-validity, WHR, spatial and
external-outcome values may differ marginally from the paper (typically by
≈ 0.003–0.015): this reflects small differences in country coverage between
this replication script — which uses a transparent standard ISO crosswalk —
and the full research pipeline, whose three-tier matching (ISO3 / code / name,
with an auxiliary crosswalk file) resolves a few additional countries.
Region-clustered t statistics are the most sensitive to coverage (few
clusters, G = 5); their qualitative conclusion (significance strengthened,
not weakened, under clustering) is stable. (2) Bootstrap confidence intervals
depend on the resampling protocol and seed; bounds may differ by ≈ 0.01
without affecting the conclusion. (3) In the two most extreme penalty-weight
specifications (×1.50) a single swap at the rank-10/11 boundary may appear in
the top-10 set, reflecting third-decimal differences between this reduced
rebuild and the certified pipeline values; the top-12 High class is preserved
in all twenty specifications. The substantive conclusions are identical in
all cases.

---

## Data provenance and licence

`data_individual_items.csv` is a **derived extract** of the Joint EVS-WVS Wave 7
dataset (Joint EVS/WVS v5.0): it contains only the 21 items used in the index,
already harmonised and normalised to the [0,1] interval, together with the ISO-2
country code. It does not contain the original survey microdata, the full item
set, or any respondent-identifying variables, and the original microdata cannot
be reconstructed from it.

`data_individual_welzel.csv` is an analogous derived extract of the 12 items of
the emancipative-values index (Welzel, *Freedom Rising*, 2013), recoded to the
emancipative direction on [0,1] following the canonical construction (four
sub-indices: autonomy, equality, choice, voice; the voice component is composed
from the post-materialist priority items). The recoding rules are documented in
the comments of PART 12 of `replicate_HSI.R`. Only two of the twelve items
(independence and obedience as child qualities) also enter the HSI.

The primary data are publicly available, subject to the providers' terms of use:

- **EVS/WVS (2022).** *Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 Dataset (Joint EVS/WVS).*
  GESIS, Cologne. https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org and https://europeanvaluesstudy.eu
- Haerpfer, C., Inglehart, R., Moreno, A., et al. (eds.) (2022). *World Values
  Survey: Round Seven.* JD Systems Institute & WVSA Secretariat.

Users who wish to start from the raw microdata should download them from the
official sources above and apply the data-preparation steps documented in
Section 3.2 of the paper.

External benchmark files are redistributed here for convenience; each carries a
`source_name` / `source_url` field pointing to its original provider (UNDP,
Legatum Institute, The European House – Ambrosetti, World Bank, WIPO, World
Happiness Report).

---

## Citation

If you use these materials, please cite the paper:

> [Authors] (2026). *The Harmonic Susceptibility Index: a multidimensional
> measure of structural predisposition to development.* PLOS ONE [DOI to be added].

---

*These replication materials accompany the manuscript submitted to PLOS ONE.
Generated from the project research pipeline; a faithful reduction to the steps
that produce the published results.*
